Baltimore at Miami (12/07/2014)

Away:  Baltimore [6-5-1 ATS]
Home:  Miami [7-5 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Sun Life Stadium

Featured Lines

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Baltimore:
Passing: Joe Flacco (2989)
Rushing: Justin Forsett (1009)
Receiving: Steve Smith (819)

Miami:
Passing: Ryan Tannehill (2817)
Rushing: Lamar Miller (729)
Receiving: Mike Wallace (661)

BALTIMORE    +    3

Why is the total only 45.5 ? Miami has horrible DB 's against the pass. Flacco should light up the sky against Miami. 

Miami's defense is 2nd in the whole NFL against the pass, pay attention.

If your looking for a reason to play the over and citing bad secondaries you should at least know what your looking for...

Baltimore (+2.5) 23 MIAMI 20

After losing at home last week against the Chargers, the Ravens are faced with a sense of urgency this week as they attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive. They match up well with the Dolphins on the ground with a rushing attack that averages 132 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 119 yards at 4.4 ypr and should be able to move the ball against a Dolphins rush defense that is allowing 119 yards at 4.4 ypr and just gave up 277 rushing yards to the Jets last week. Miami will have a harder time rushing the ball as the Ravens are allowing just 85 yards at 3.7 ypr (#4 ranking) to teams that gain 108 yards at 4.1 ypr on average. However, the Ravens will be missing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata who is the best run stopper and pass rusher on their defensive line and that will certainly hurt.

Miami is also 7-5 and in the thick of it in the AFC wildcard hunt and will be focused and prepared to play well. Their best chance of offensive success is in the air against a Ravens pass defense that can be exploited if Tannehill is given time in the pocket. That may be a tall order against a Ravens pass rush that generates 2.7 sacks per game against teams that allow 2.1. The Ravens qualify in a 116-65-6 bounce back situation and my model favors Baltimore in this game by 1.4 points. I like the Ravens here but can’t play on them given the struggles that they’ve had in the secondary on defense (803 yards passing and 61 points the past two games). 

I watched Peyton pick Miami's DB apart in the second half in Denver. Any good QB besides the Jets Gino Smith, can pick Miami apart. Tannehill can fling it pretty good as well. Liking the over a lot !

Dolphins ML.

Ngata is out for 4 games.  Ravens need to play 12-13 men on the field to make up for his absence.   Phins are tough at home.  Packers barely escaped, and the Ravens are even close to the Packers.  

bah, Ravens AREN'T even close to as good as the Packers.  they need an edit function here.  dammit!

light it up to who? Smith playing hurt.Miami squeaks this one out on the ground

35-27 Dolphins+Over for a bong rip.

I would like more specific info on that bounce back stat.  Having asked for that, I LUV MIA in this spot!  Crushing defeat last week for BAL, then turmoil added with NT out.....questions, lost focus, etc, etc......  Some say that rallies a team, and sometimes it does.  Sometimes it saps a teams reserve strength dry.  While I believe this could go either way (it's the NFL, right?) IMHO that lost reserve will cost BAL the game late in 3rd to 4th quarter.  Not expecting easy, but MIA to cover 3, for $2.  (a X2 play for me)  BOLTA