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Cleveland at Boston (05/06/2008)

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Posted: #51
I'm sure Boston's gonna' be ready.  I don't see them as a physically tired team or anything.  And there's no way they take the Cavs. lightly.

Could they easily win by 10?  Sure.  Why not?

But it did only happen once this year against Cleveland.  The rest of the games were closer.  And it's awfully tough to predict a blow-out.  I know - the Wiz did it to 'em, but that was a semi-trap/letdown game for the the Cavs.

I think the Cavs will be just as fired up for this game as Boston is.  And you KNOW the "Bible" is gonna' get his.  If those other cats don't show then Boston probably will safely, but I think we'll see Wally appearances throughout the rest of the playoffs as he gets more comfortable with this team, and I think the Z will play well in this series too.

I still like the points in Game One. 




 
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Posted: #52
 After reading these posts and doing a little research, on the under 1h and teasing clev to 14 and over 178.   GLTA
 
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Posted: #53
In this rivalry, the underdog is on a 6-0-1 ATS roll...
 
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Posted: #54
I believe that Boston is the better team.  Given that Boston is off of one days rest and Cleveland has had 3 days rest, I do believe that this will be a factor.  How much of a factor?  I think this will manifest with a lower scoring, more deliberate game on both sides.  I dont care if Cleveland had 30 days to preparre. You can only prepare so much and preparation will NOT overcome talent.  Boston is clearly more taleted.  I am leaving the game alone due to the layoff/preparation factor.  GL to all.
Bos 1/2
Under 1st 1/2
Under Game

 
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Posted: #55

CLE +9.5

UNDER 182

 
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Posted: #56

The match up history leads us to the under. Plus, I see either clev being blown out and then both team’s scrubs come in in the 4th to keep the scoring under, or a tight game where clev’s defense steps it up and keeps it close causing both teams to treat their possessions wisely leading to an under. 

 
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Posted: #57
I am hopping on the under train of 182 tonight.  To me it just seems too easy to take over this posted total and I'm going to sweat this one out tonight. 
 
 
UNDER 182
 
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Posted: #58
Got the cavs+9 1/2... Under dropped to 182...Taking both...
 
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Posted: #59
Folks, I hate to buck the trend, But the TOTAL is a little too low for this game. I think it will be the lowest total of the series. So get it now while you can. Offense at the begining of the series, DEFENSE TOWARD THE END. I think this game creeps OVER the total 182. GL2all.
 
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Posted: #60
182 is super low for these guys. guess vegas is beggin us to take the over so i'll go UNDER!
 
Under 182 .
 
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Posted: #61
these two teams thrive on d thats why i'm going for the under and making a play on the cavs first half this game will be close going into half and then either lebron goes ape shit or the boston three party gets it done at home which i dont see them losing a game at home but you never know with lebron
 
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Posted: #62
If BOS blows out CLE it goes over, if CLE keeps it competitive, it might stay under.  It doesn't seem to easy to take the over, on the contrary, all the stats for the regular season point to an under at BOS and over at CLE.  But, regular season stats can be thrown out the window.

Look at round one stats instead.  BOS blew out ATL at home by an average of 20+.  BOS out scored ATL and CLE in the 1st and 3rd quarters all but one game.  If BOS has a lead at home, they build on it in the second half.  CLE averaged 46.66 pts in the 1st half and 44.66 in the 2nd half at WAS.

CLE averaged 92.33 pts per game at WAS.  BOS averaged 102.25 at home.  One days rest versus 3 days rest means nothing.  This is the playoffs and BOS didn't have to travel.  CLE can be prepared as much as they want but unless they make their shots early, it'll be over in the first half.  BOS outscored ATL 51.5 to 39.25 in the 2nd half of their home games.

Home court means everything, that's why the teams with the better records are rewarded with home court.  The LeBron factor is the only thing that gives CLE a remote chance at staying competitive, but with BOS playing 3-4 quarters of BOS Garden bball (which they've been doing since March), it'll be too much for him to take over in the 4th when he's down by DD.

GL!!

 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Attila:

CMJ, not trying to question you as much as try and understand the logic.  Based on your assessment what has changed between these teams that would cause you to see a 19 point win by Boston?  From my review the largest margin of victory has been 10 pts by Boston and if  remember correctly that was without LJ.


The first game was at the start of the season and saw no Leon Powe, the Celtics were still figuring out how to play with each other to the best ability.  For the Cavs, Drew Gooden had 24 points and 13 rebounds which greatly contributed to that win.  Those points are gone.  West, Wally and Big Ben might get the 13 boards, but probably not the 24 points. 

2nd game had no LeBron, and was just an ugly game on both sides of the ball.  I won't even count that one towards the season stats.

Game 3 the Cavs won by a point, but guess what, no Garnett.  Reason why the Cavs were able to win was the rebounds.  They were +10 in that game and Rajon Rondo was the leading rebounder for the C's with 7....that's not going to happen again.

Game 4 was more along the lines of what I would expect for this game.  Both teams were pretty much as we see them right now with the exception of no Sam Cassell or PJ Brown for the Celtics.  Celtics had a big lead a majority of the game, and the Cavs made a slight comeback late in the game when the 2nd string was in.  C's held them to 38% shooting from the field.

Biggest difference is that it's the playoffs, the Celtics are at home, and the intensity is that much higher.  Rajon Rondo has improved incredibly from the first couple times they have played, and should continue to pick apart the Cavs defense.  Celtics have improved dramatically on the defensive end, and there is no way in hell the Cavs score 114 points again like they did in the 2nd game. 

Should be another great series here either way.
 
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Posted: #64
  • Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.

    • The one day of rest is already factored into the spread people, Vegas knows that too. Boston's D is too good, especially at home. Cavs players besides Lebron are overmatched in this one, and the fundamentally sound D of Boston will not allow the average players to get easy scores.

    Boston -9.5

    Under 182

     
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    Posted: #65
    Prediction
     
    CELTICS - 98
    CAVS - 84
     
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    Posted: #66
    Quote Originally Posted by sirmartingale:

  • Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.

    •  

    Forget about the regular season, this is PLAYOFF TIME!!! Boston with "0" experience in the playoffs. This Cleveland team is battle tested!

     
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    Posted: #67
    CELTS 1Q -3   
     
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    Posted: #68
    clev money line +450
     
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    Posted: #69
    CMJohnson1 has good info and insight, BUT BEWARE!!! He is from New England and is a homer.  He did the same thing with the Patriots the whole football season.  I'm not saying Boston won't win, I'm just saying CMJ is a Boston homer, so his picks and analysis reflect that bias.
     
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    Posted: #70
    Boston has been playing while Cleveland has been laying around. Cleveland will come out slow and there is a huge advantage for Boston in the 1st quarter+9. I am taking Boston 1st, Under 1st, Boston game. All the numbers say the same. One last thing Cleveland is 3-5 after 3 days rest.GL
     
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    Posted: #71
    so it seems like the majority vote for this game would be Under entire game, Under 1stHalf?
     
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    Posted: #72
    Boston ML huge
     
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    Posted: #73
    Wow - lot's to think about.  And I love the fact that nearly even money is going both ways on this one.

    I agree with Pronk in that this team is probably better than the credit they're given, and the NightRidah posted something to that effect a few days ago.  Granted, he was comparing them to the Wiz, but I still think his post applies. 

    SirMart may be right about the Boston "D" causing problems to the non-Bron's, but I still think those other guys are, again, better than credited.  They've all got considerable playoff experience and  they're still easing into the specific roles the brass acquired them for.  Let's not forget that multi-player trade wasn't that long ago.

    I also believe that LeBron is actually good enough to make a very BIG difference in this series.  I mean - Dude is riDICulous  .

    We all know that history doesn't guarantee repeat performances (if you ALWAYS bet the stats. yer gonna' lose alot more games than you think you should) but look at what he did last year in the playoffs - and specifically in big games.  We may not be there yet in this series, but tonight's game is the only one on the slate.

    Two cents on the over/under:  I'm not a big fan of trying to "think like the book" because I believe they probably get themselves in more trouble by trying to set traps than they do by simply balancing the books and taking their 5, let's not forget that the books do know, for sure, that the public prefers betting the over.  That's just a fact.

    Hey, good luck all 

     
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    Posted: #74
    Quote Originally Posted by angrytiger:

    Wow - lot's to think about.  And I love the fact that nearly even money is going both ways on this one.

    I agree with Pronk in that this team is probably better than the credit they're given, and the NightRidah posted something to that effect a few days ago.  Granted, he was comparing them to the Wiz, but I still think his post applies. 

    SirMart may be right about the Boston "D" causing problems to the non-Bron's, but I still think those other guys are, again, better than credited.  They've all got considerable playoff experience and  they're still easing into the specific roles the brass acquired them for.  Let's not forget that multi-player trade wasn't that long ago.

    I also believe that LeBron is actually good enough to make a very BIG difference in this series.  I mean - Dude is riDICulous  .

    We all know that history doesn't guarantee repeat performances (if you ALWAYS bet the stats. yer gonna' lose alot more games than you think you should) but look at what he did last year in the playoffs - and specifically in big games.  We may not be there yet in this series, but tonight's game is the only one on the slate.

    Two cents on the over/under:  I'm not a big fan of trying to "think like the book" because I believe they probably get themselves in more trouble by trying to set traps than they do by simply balancing the books and taking their 5, let's not forget that the books do know, for sure, that the public prefers betting the over.  That's just a fact.

    Hey, good luck all 

    so what are your picks?

     
     
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    Posted: #75
    I like the Cavs and the points, and I agree with the consensus here on the under.

    Staying away from halftime stuff.  Both teams might come out cautious, but Boston might just come out hot, in which case I like Cleveland's chances to stick around and make it interesting at the end.
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