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    All Forums | Politics

    MODERATE voters say ...

    «First Previous 567 ... 262728 Next Last»
    SarasotaSlim
    fubah2
    KellyM_1964
    kagakuotoko
    Snorkel
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    Views: 32813
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    «First Previous 567 ... 262728 Next Last»
     
    SarasotaSlim
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 7:12 PM ET #101

    Trump with 20% of the black vote is unbeatable....hands down ../

    Reply

    Trump with 20% of the black vote is unbeatable....hands down ../

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 7:19 PM ET #102

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current polls show trump is as despised by the black community today at least as much as before, if not worse.  The BLM movement condemnation by trump, calling it a "symbol of hate" is understandably NOT going over well.  George Floyd's murder caused protest.  trump's reaction has also drawn overwhelming criticism and disdain from the black community.  No way his numbers from them rise.

    Still averaging well over 80% black voters AGAINST trump

    ...yet UNDER 10% willing to vote FOR trump an_roll_laugh

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current polls show trump is as despised by the black community today at least as much as before, if not worse.  The BLM movement condemnation by trump, calling it a "symbol of hate" is understandably NOT going over well.  George Floyd's murder caused protest.  trump's reaction has also drawn overwhelming criticism and disdain from the black community.  No way his numbers from them rise.

    Still averaging well over 80% black voters AGAINST trump

    ...yet UNDER 10% willing to vote FOR trump an_roll_laugh

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 8:21 PM ET #103

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current polls show trump is as despised by the black community today at least as much as before, if not worse.  The BLM movement condemnation by trump, calling it a "symbol of hate" is understandably NOT going over well.  George Floyd's murder caused protest.  trump's reaction has also drawn overwhelming criticism and disdain from the black community.  No way his numbers from them rise. Still averaging well over 80% black voters AGAINST trump...yet UNDER 10% willing to vote FOR trump

     

    A CNN poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 5 percentage point lead, 51% to 46%, in Florida, where Trump has been running second since March. The gap has been wider in other surveys, including a Quinnipiac University poll from last week, which showed Biden up 51% to Trump's 38%.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current polls show trump is as despised by the black community today at least as much as before, if not worse.  The BLM movement condemnation by trump, calling it a "symbol of hate" is understandably NOT going over well.  George Floyd's murder caused protest.  trump's reaction has also drawn overwhelming criticism and disdain from the black community.  No way his numbers from them rise. Still averaging well over 80% black voters AGAINST trump...yet UNDER 10% willing to vote FOR trump

     

    A CNN poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 5 percentage point lead, 51% to 46%, in Florida, where Trump has been running second since March. The gap has been wider in other surveys, including a Quinnipiac University poll from last week, which showed Biden up 51% to Trump's 38%.

     
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 9:00 PM ET #104

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    A CNN poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 5 percentage point lead, 51% to 46%, in Florida, where Trump has been running second since March. The gap has been wider in other surveys, including a Quinnipiac University poll from last week, which showed Biden up 51% to Trump's 38%.

    CNN(the most fake news new network)  Poll I can pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll ...........llol

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    A CNN poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 5 percentage point lead, 51% to 46%, in Florida, where Trump has been running second since March. The gap has been wider in other surveys, including a Quinnipiac University poll from last week, which showed Biden up 51% to Trump's 38%.

    CNN(the most fake news new network)  Poll I can pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll ...........llol

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 9:17 PM ET #105

    Florida: Trump vs. Biden,  since JUNE 01

    CNN            Biden +5 .....TIED for weakest Biden poll
    Quinnipiac     Biden +13
    St. Pete Polls Biden +6
    Gravis           Biden +10
    CNBC            Biden +7
    CBS News      Biden +6
    Trafalgar          Tie 
    CNBC            Biden +5
    FOX News    Biden +9 an_light
    NYT/Siena     Biden +6
    CNBC            Biden +7
    TIPP             Biden +11

    RCP mean = Biden +7.8  an_light

    This is waaaay UP from just +6.6 prior to JUNE 01.

     

    from Real Clear Politics

    Reply

    Florida: Trump vs. Biden,  since JUNE 01

    CNN            Biden +5 .....TIED for weakest Biden poll
    Quinnipiac     Biden +13
    St. Pete Polls Biden +6
    Gravis           Biden +10
    CNBC            Biden +7
    CBS News      Biden +6
    Trafalgar          Tie 
    CNBC            Biden +5
    FOX News    Biden +9 an_light
    NYT/Siena     Biden +6
    CNBC            Biden +7
    TIPP             Biden +11

    RCP mean = Biden +7.8  an_light

    This is waaaay UP from just +6.6 prior to JUNE 01.

     

    from Real Clear Politics

     
    SarasotaSlim
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 9:40 PM ET #106

    Democrat Party Poll

    General Election:Trump vs. Biden        Harvard/Harris       Biden55,Trump 45...........Biden +10 

    Reply

    Democrat Party Poll

    General Election:Trump vs. Biden        Harvard/Harris       Biden55,Trump 45...........Biden +10 

     
    SarasotaSlim
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 9:40 PM ET #107

    Democrat Party Poll

    General Election:Trump vs. Biden        Harvard/Harris       Biden55,Trump 45...........Biden +10 

    Reply

    Democrat Party Poll

    General Election:Trump vs. Biden        Harvard/Harris       Biden55,Trump 45...........Biden +10 

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 9:59 PM ET #108

     

    "CNN(the most fake news new network) Poll I can pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll "

     

    You can "pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll" if you wish, or not...

     

    Florida: Trump vs. Biden,  since JUNE 01

    CNN            Biden +5 .....TIED for weakest Biden poll
    Quinnipiac     Biden +13
    St. Pete Polls Biden +6
    Gravis           Biden +10
    CNBC            Biden +7
    CBS News      Biden +6
    Trafalgar          Tie 
    CNBC            Biden +5
    FOX News    Biden +9 an_light
    NYT/Siena     Biden +6
    CNBC            Biden +7
    TIPP             Biden +11

    RCP mean = Biden +7.8  an_light

    This is waaaay UP from just +6.6 prior to JUNE 01.

     

    from Real Clear Politics

     

     

    Reply

     

    "CNN(the most fake news new network) Poll I can pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll "

     

    You can "pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll" if you wish, or not...

     

    Florida: Trump vs. Biden,  since JUNE 01

    CNN            Biden +5 .....TIED for weakest Biden poll
    Quinnipiac     Biden +13
    St. Pete Polls Biden +6
    Gravis           Biden +10
    CNBC            Biden +7
    CBS News      Biden +6
    Trafalgar          Tie 
    CNBC            Biden +5
    FOX News    Biden +9 an_light
    NYT/Siena     Biden +6
    CNBC            Biden +7
    TIPP             Biden +11

    RCP mean = Biden +7.8  an_light

    This is waaaay UP from just +6.6 prior to JUNE 01.

     

    from Real Clear Politics

     

     

     
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 11:28 PM ET #109

    It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump

    That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 an_eek2

    Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens...

    Reply

    It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump

    That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 an_eek2

    Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens...

     
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2020 - 11:40 PM ET #110

    After Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was up +17 in July ...three months later he lost to GHW Bush 54% to 46%

    Reply

    After Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was up +17 in July ...three months later he lost to GHW Bush 54% to 46%

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53258
    Posted: Jul. 28, 2020 - 4:48 AM ET #111

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens...

    Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q....

    One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it.

    But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens...

    Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q....

    One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it.

    But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53258
    Posted: Jul. 30, 2020 - 7:02 AM ET #112

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.


    Q#4: Do you think Trump purposefully withheld military aid to Ukraine
    in order to get the President of Ukraine to investigate allegations of
    corruption against the Biden family? (Quid Pro Quo/extortion)
    MODERATES said:
    54% ... YES he did!
    24% .... no


    Q#6: Do you think the government of Saudi Arabia is directly responsible
    for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi? (despite what trump claims)
    MODERATES said:
    49% ... YES!
    6% ..... no
    45% ... unsure

     

    Q42:   In general,  do you think LEGAL immigration makes
    the U.S. better off or worse off, or does it not make much difference?
    LIBERALS said: ...58% BETTER OFF!....15% worse
    Moderates say: ...35% BETTER OFF.....21% worse
    Conservatives: ....20% better off...........40% WORSE OFF!!

     

     

    Reply

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.


    Q#4: Do you think Trump purposefully withheld military aid to Ukraine
    in order to get the President of Ukraine to investigate allegations of
    corruption against the Biden family? (Quid Pro Quo/extortion)
    MODERATES said:
    54% ... YES he did!
    24% .... no


    Q#6: Do you think the government of Saudi Arabia is directly responsible
    for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi? (despite what trump claims)
    MODERATES said:
    49% ... YES!
    6% ..... no
    45% ... unsure

     

    Q42:   In general,  do you think LEGAL immigration makes
    the U.S. better off or worse off, or does it not make much difference?
    LIBERALS said: ...58% BETTER OFF!....15% worse
    Moderates say: ...35% BETTER OFF.....21% worse
    Conservatives: ....20% better off...........40% WORSE OFF!!

     

     

     
    KellyM_1964
    KellyM_1964
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    Posted: Jul. 30, 2020 - 8:17 PM ET #113

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    ....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q.... One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it. But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.
    why do some people hold up just one event as proof we can expect it will happen again

    "I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    ....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q.... One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it. But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.
    why do some people hold up just one event as proof we can expect it will happen again

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53258
    Posted: Jul. 31, 2020 - 7:27 AM ET #114

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q26: Do you approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak?
    MODERATES said:
    32% ..... approve
    65% ... DISAPPROVE! an_light

    Q30: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Dr.Fauci working on covid-19?
    MODERATES said:
    65% ...FAVORABLE!
    24% ...unfavorable

     

     

    Q32: Would you support or oppose a policy that made it mandatory to
    wear masks in public places?
    MODERATES said:
    74% ...SUPPORT mandatory masking! an_light
    19% ... oppose
    **NOTE: Republicans said: 50% support/46% oppose


    Q34: Would you support or oppose some of the states that have reopened
    sectors of their economy closing again due to COVID-19 concerns?
    MODERATES said:
    61% ... YES, close again! an_light
    27% .... no
    **NOTE: Republicans are 44% yes /44% no

    Reply

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q26: Do you approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak?
    MODERATES said:
    32% ..... approve
    65% ... DISAPPROVE! an_light

    Q30: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Dr.Fauci working on covid-19?
    MODERATES said:
    65% ...FAVORABLE!
    24% ...unfavorable

     

     

    Q32: Would you support or oppose a policy that made it mandatory to
    wear masks in public places?
    MODERATES said:
    74% ...SUPPORT mandatory masking! an_light
    19% ... oppose
    **NOTE: Republicans said: 50% support/46% oppose


    Q34: Would you support or oppose some of the states that have reopened
    sectors of their economy closing again due to COVID-19 concerns?
    MODERATES said:
    61% ... YES, close again! an_light
    27% .... no
    **NOTE: Republicans are 44% yes /44% no

     
    kagakuotoko
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2020 - 12:36 PM ET #115

    Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:

    Trump is absolutely not moderate.  Perhaps Republicans need to change their thinking on the matter.  He's fairly far right and rarely compromises at all.  I highly doubt moderates see him as a centrist.  In fact, what I've been saying for a long time now is that the Republicans have miscalculated for 2020.  To run in the Republican Party, you need to be a huge Trump supporter who rarely disagrees with him, essentially being a sycophant.  That categorizes you as a hardliner.  So when you're running a politician like that in a swing district, then it's much harder to get those moderate/centrist voters to consider your party.  Yes, the Democrats do have far-left candidates as well, but you may have noticed in the midterms that they tried to run centrist candidates to steal seats away from Republicans.  I suspect that will largely be the same theme for 2020 as well.  The average voter also doesn't know that Trump likely maxed out most of his support in 2016.  Yes, silent majority and he's more popular than ever.  Blah, blah, blah.  However, the math doesn't indicate that to me and I'm not going by polls.  I'm VERY certain anyone who wanted to vote for Trump already decided to cast a ballot in 2016.  Nobody sat out the election or waffled and wanted to see what would happen.  Trump needs to expand his base by appealing to prior voters who weren't willing to vote for him.  Trump will surpass the total he hit for a mark in 2016, but when you look at the data and do a rough estimate, you begin to see my actual point.  He needs to increase his share by a large margin, not just exceed it by a bit.  That's not enough if voter turnout does increase for 2020, which I believe will occur.  For someone who narrowly won a few swing states, this is a big problem.  By the way, Biden is a crappy candidate.  Go ahead and subtract 5% or even 8% from the current polling.  Trump is sinking himself by continuing to lie about coronavirus and Republicans haven't ever thought that his rambling act gets old for the public.  My best guess is Trump's overall support for the general election is around 40-45 percent.  That probably isn't enough for him to win and so I'd recommend a complete reversal and a new strategy.  I don't think Trump knows any other way of operating and that may what leads Republicans off a cliff like lemmings.

    I have been saying this to a lot of Trump supporters and trump haters.  Trump has done nothing to expand his voting pool.  He still has a chance, he needs something drastic to confuse the masses.  A vaccine would help but it's unlikely.  He should say something like I support M4A and UBI and that might be enough.

    Just a clown... doing clown things
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:

    Trump is absolutely not moderate.  Perhaps Republicans need to change their thinking on the matter.  He's fairly far right and rarely compromises at all.  I highly doubt moderates see him as a centrist.  In fact, what I've been saying for a long time now is that the Republicans have miscalculated for 2020.  To run in the Republican Party, you need to be a huge Trump supporter who rarely disagrees with him, essentially being a sycophant.  That categorizes you as a hardliner.  So when you're running a politician like that in a swing district, then it's much harder to get those moderate/centrist voters to consider your party.  Yes, the Democrats do have far-left candidates as well, but you may have noticed in the midterms that they tried to run centrist candidates to steal seats away from Republicans.  I suspect that will largely be the same theme for 2020 as well.  The average voter also doesn't know that Trump likely maxed out most of his support in 2016.  Yes, silent majority and he's more popular than ever.  Blah, blah, blah.  However, the math doesn't indicate that to me and I'm not going by polls.  I'm VERY certain anyone who wanted to vote for Trump already decided to cast a ballot in 2016.  Nobody sat out the election or waffled and wanted to see what would happen.  Trump needs to expand his base by appealing to prior voters who weren't willing to vote for him.  Trump will surpass the total he hit for a mark in 2016, but when you look at the data and do a rough estimate, you begin to see my actual point.  He needs to increase his share by a large margin, not just exceed it by a bit.  That's not enough if voter turnout does increase for 2020, which I believe will occur.  For someone who narrowly won a few swing states, this is a big problem.  By the way, Biden is a crappy candidate.  Go ahead and subtract 5% or even 8% from the current polling.  Trump is sinking himself by continuing to lie about coronavirus and Republicans haven't ever thought that his rambling act gets old for the public.  My best guess is Trump's overall support for the general election is around 40-45 percent.  That probably isn't enough for him to win and so I'd recommend a complete reversal and a new strategy.  I don't think Trump knows any other way of operating and that may what leads Republicans off a cliff like lemmings.

    I have been saying this to a lot of Trump supporters and trump haters.  Trump has done nothing to expand his voting pool.  He still has a chance, he needs something drastic to confuse the masses.  A vaccine would help but it's unlikely.  He should say something like I support M4A and UBI and that might be enough.

     
    kagakuotoko
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2020 - 12:37 PM ET #116

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:           We agree on this one it is a good thoughtful post especially the part about "My best guess is Trump's overall support for the general election is around 40-45 percent. That probably isn't enough for him to win" ..So by that thinking he only has to pick up another 1% and he should have another win..because President Trump only received 45.9% of the vote in 2016 and beat Hillary..

    If he gets them in the right zip codes, yes.

    Just a clown... doing clown things
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:           We agree on this one it is a good thoughtful post especially the part about "My best guess is Trump's overall support for the general election is around 40-45 percent. That probably isn't enough for him to win" ..So by that thinking he only has to pick up another 1% and he should have another win..because President Trump only received 45.9% of the vote in 2016 and beat Hillary..

    If he gets them in the right zip codes, yes.

     
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53258
    Posted: Jul. 31, 2020 - 9:34 PM ET #117

    Quote Originally Posted by kagakuotoko:

    I have been saying this to a lot of Trump supporters and trump haters.  Trump has done nothing to expand his voting pool. 

    He still has a chance, he needs something drastic to confuse the masses.  A vaccine would help but it's unlikely.  He should say something like I support M4A and UBI and that might be enough.

    Two solid points.

    It's obvious he has not only failed to expand the voting pool which lost by 3 MILLION votes to a very UNPOPULAR Democrat, but he's actually losing voters. There were never trumpers before. Now there are more. A lot more.

    Second, just making "halftime adjustments" doesn't appear it will be enough to overcome a solid Biden lead. trump's going to need to get lucky and recover a couple balls in the redzone AND get a favorable non-call (ala, how the Saints got robbed vs Rams...Source: https://tinyurl.com/y2zqqfts )  An event like that, sometimes referred to as the infamous "October Surprise" can flip things in the waning moments.

    Clinton had a solid lead, but was a persistent target of the Russians, and then Wikileaks.  Even more October surprise delivered from Comey's announcement.  It hurt.  Trump needs something along those lines to do it again for him because he will lose the popular vote again. QUestion is by how much and most importantly in which states.  Biden only needs to win 3 of the contentious 9 swing states (currently close)...or just 2 if one of them is Florida. Whereas trump must win 7 of those 9 INCLUDING Florida.  Since Biden has solid leads in most of these, the path is much harder for trump. Not impossible, but much harder.  That's why he *NEEDS* an "October Surprise".  As I have mused before multiple times in recent weeks, this could be thanks to AG BARR making a surprise announcement of a "serious investigation" into Joe Biden for "alleged" crimes....or something similar, since BARR's job is also very much on the line if trump loses. Because there is no way in heaven that the economy will turnaround COMPLETELY in less than 3 months.  In fact, economists have been saying in recent weeks it's no better than stagnant, and may get worse.  Certainly trump himself said the coronavirus (and resultant fallout is implied) is likely to get worse before it gets better.

    The "October Surprise" may also largely explain why some polls show Biden would be a solid choice *IF* the election were held today, but the same voters are ambivalent whether that would hold true by November 3.  There are no "secret voters lurking in the weeds waiting to vote for trump"...Rather there are people (including me) who EXPECT trump will do something (probably cheat) to change the solid momentum against him. It is completely within his nature to do so.  And he has to...

    If no "October Surprise" (against Biden; in trump's favor) then trump goes down like the Titanic, taking the Senate and most Republicans with him

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by kagakuotoko:

    I have been saying this to a lot of Trump supporters and trump haters.  Trump has done nothing to expand his voting pool. 

    He still has a chance, he needs something drastic to confuse the masses.  A vaccine would help but it's unlikely.  He should say something like I support M4A and UBI and that might be enough.

    Two solid points.

    It's obvious he has not only failed to expand the voting pool which lost by 3 MILLION votes to a very UNPOPULAR Democrat, but he's actually losing voters. There were never trumpers before. Now there are more. A lot more.

    Second, just making "halftime adjustments" doesn't appear it will be enough to overcome a solid Biden lead. trump's going to need to get lucky and recover a couple balls in the redzone AND get a favorable non-call (ala, how the Saints got robbed vs Rams...Source: https://tinyurl.com/y2zqqfts )  An event like that, sometimes referred to as the infamous "October Surprise" can flip things in the waning moments.

    Clinton had a solid lead, but was a persistent target of the Russians, and then Wikileaks.  Even more October surprise delivered from Comey's announcement.  It hurt.  Trump needs something along those lines to do it again for him because he will lose the popular vote again. QUestion is by how much and most importantly in which states.  Biden only needs to win 3 of the contentious 9 swing states (currently close)...or just 2 if one of them is Florida. Whereas trump must win 7 of those 9 INCLUDING Florida.  Since Biden has solid leads in most of these, the path is much harder for trump. Not impossible, but much harder.  That's why he *NEEDS* an "October Surprise".  As I have mused before multiple times in recent weeks, this could be thanks to AG BARR making a surprise announcement of a "serious investigation" into Joe Biden for "alleged" crimes....or something similar, since BARR's job is also very much on the line if trump loses. Because there is no way in heaven that the economy will turnaround COMPLETELY in less than 3 months.  In fact, economists have been saying in recent weeks it's no better than stagnant, and may get worse.  Certainly trump himself said the coronavirus (and resultant fallout is implied) is likely to get worse before it gets better.

    The "October Surprise" may also largely explain why some polls show Biden would be a solid choice *IF* the election were held today, but the same voters are ambivalent whether that would hold true by November 3.  There are no "secret voters lurking in the weeds waiting to vote for trump"...Rather there are people (including me) who EXPECT trump will do something (probably cheat) to change the solid momentum against him. It is completely within his nature to do so.  And he has to...

    If no "October Surprise" (against Biden; in trump's favor) then trump goes down like the Titanic, taking the Senate and most Republicans with him

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2020 - 6:41 AM ET #118

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

    Q44: Do you think race relations in the United States are ...?
    Liberal's view: ......76% BAD!!...24% good
    Moderate's view: ...73% BAD!!...27% good
    Conservative's say: 48% bad.......52% GOOD! an_light

    Q45: How big a problem is RACISM in our society today?
    Liberal's view: ......90% PROBLEM!...10% not much problem
    Moderate's view: ...78% PROBLEM!...12% not much problem
    Conservative's say: 60% PROBLEM......39% not much problem
    **BLACK's view: ... 93% PROBLEM!!...7% not much problem
    *Hispanic's view: .. 81% PROBLEM!...19% not much problem


    Q48: Trump has suggested sending more federal security officers from DHS
    to deal with protests in otherAmerican cities, such as Chicago, New York, Detroit,
    and Philadelphia.  Would you approve or disapprove of this decision?
    MODERATES said:
    35% ...approve
    56% ...DISAPPROVE! an_light

     

    Q49: The Democrat led HOUSE passed a bill to remove Confederate statues
    from the from the U.S. Capitol grounds. Do you suppport or oppose ?
    Liberal's view: ......77% SUPPORT the bill..16% oppose
    Moderate's view: ...47% Support the bill.......40% oppose
    Conservative's say: 18% support the bill.......72% OPPOSE!!! (Keep statues of traitors!)
    **BLACK's view: ...64% SUPPORT the bill..14% oppose

     


    Q50: The REPUBLICAN led Senate recently passed a bill for the renaming
    military bases that honor Confederate officers. (ie. traitors, defending slavery)
    Do you approve or disapprove of this decision by SENATE?


    Liberal's view: ...... 69% APPROVE the bill!..19% disapprove
    Moderate's view: ...46% APPROVE the bill!..38% disapprove
    Conservative's say: 19% approve the bill........69% DISAPPROVE!
    **BLACK's view: ... 46% APPROVE the bill!..15% disapprove

     

    Reply

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

    Q44: Do you think race relations in the United States are ...?
    Liberal's view: ......76% BAD!!...24% good
    Moderate's view: ...73% BAD!!...27% good
    Conservative's say: 48% bad.......52% GOOD! an_light

    Q45: How big a problem is RACISM in our society today?
    Liberal's view: ......90% PROBLEM!...10% not much problem
    Moderate's view: ...78% PROBLEM!...12% not much problem
    Conservative's say: 60% PROBLEM......39% not much problem
    **BLACK's view: ... 93% PROBLEM!!...7% not much problem
    *Hispanic's view: .. 81% PROBLEM!...19% not much problem


    Q48: Trump has suggested sending more federal security officers from DHS
    to deal with protests in otherAmerican cities, such as Chicago, New York, Detroit,
    and Philadelphia.  Would you approve or disapprove of this decision?
    MODERATES said:
    35% ...approve
    56% ...DISAPPROVE! an_light

     

    Q49: The Democrat led HOUSE passed a bill to remove Confederate statues
    from the from the U.S. Capitol grounds. Do you suppport or oppose ?
    Liberal's view: ......77% SUPPORT the bill..16% oppose
    Moderate's view: ...47% Support the bill.......40% oppose
    Conservative's say: 18% support the bill.......72% OPPOSE!!! (Keep statues of traitors!)
    **BLACK's view: ...64% SUPPORT the bill..14% oppose

     


    Q50: The REPUBLICAN led Senate recently passed a bill for the renaming
    military bases that honor Confederate officers. (ie. traitors, defending slavery)
    Do you approve or disapprove of this decision by SENATE?


    Liberal's view: ...... 69% APPROVE the bill!..19% disapprove
    Moderate's view: ...46% APPROVE the bill!..38% disapprove
    Conservative's say: 19% approve the bill........69% DISAPPROVE!
    **BLACK's view: ... 46% APPROVE the bill!..15% disapprove

     

     
    Snorkel
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2020 - 5:23 PM ET #119

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim: It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens... Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q.... One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it. But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.
    There were 222 national polls for presidential victory in 2016 - Only 13 were correct!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim: It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens... Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q.... One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it. But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.
    There were 222 national polls for presidential victory in 2016 - Only 13 were correct!

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2020 - 7:19 PM ET #120

    Quote Originally Posted by Snorkel:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim: It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens... Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q.... One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it. But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping. There were 222 national polls for presidential victory in 2016 - Only 13 were correct!

    People take surveys and say, "Yes, I would buy this product!" all of the time but that doesn't mean they actually go out to the store and buy it.

    They don't even make the effort to mail order it. an_drunksick.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Snorkel:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim: It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17 Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens... Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q.... One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it. But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping. There were 222 national polls for presidential victory in 2016 - Only 13 were correct!

    People take surveys and say, "Yes, I would buy this product!" all of the time but that doesn't mean they actually go out to the store and buy it.

    They don't even make the effort to mail order it. an_drunksick.

     
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53258
    Posted: Aug. 2, 2020 - 1:53 AM ET #121

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q106: Do you personally (or jointly with a spouse!), have any money invested in
    the stock market right now, either in an individual stock or in a mutual fund?
    LIBERALS said: ... 41% yes ....... 59% NO!
    Moderates say: ... 44% yes ....... 56% NO!
    Conservatives: .... 46% yes........ 54% NO
    **BLACKS say: ... 27% yes ....... 73% NO!!
    ***AGGREGATE: 40% yes ........ 60% NO!!

     

    Q51: Is our COUNTRY better off now than four years ago? (ie, under Obama)
    Liberal's view: ..... 12% better now ............
    76% better under Obama!
    Moderate's view: ...23% better now............54% better under Obama!
    Conservative's say: 55% BETTER NOW.....22% better 4 yrs ago
    **BLACK's view: ......8% better now...........63% better under Obama!

     

    Q77: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of president trump?
    Moderates said: ...35% favorable....63% UNFAVORABLE
    **BLACKS said: ... 16% favorable....79% UNFAVORABLE!

     

    Q60: If an election for president were going to be held TODAY ...?
    Moderates
    said: 56% BIDEN!...29% trump
    **BLACKS said:  81% BIDEN!!... 5% trump

     

     

    Reply

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q106: Do you personally (or jointly with a spouse!), have any money invested in
    the stock market right now, either in an individual stock or in a mutual fund?
    LIBERALS said: ... 41% yes ....... 59% NO!
    Moderates say: ... 44% yes ....... 56% NO!
    Conservatives: .... 46% yes........ 54% NO
    **BLACKS say: ... 27% yes ....... 73% NO!!
    ***AGGREGATE: 40% yes ........ 60% NO!!

     

    Q51: Is our COUNTRY better off now than four years ago? (ie, under Obama)
    Liberal's view: ..... 12% better now ............
    76% better under Obama!
    Moderate's view: ...23% better now............54% better under Obama!
    Conservative's say: 55% BETTER NOW.....22% better 4 yrs ago
    **BLACK's view: ......8% better now...........63% better under Obama!

     

    Q77: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of president trump?
    Moderates said: ...35% favorable....63% UNFAVORABLE
    **BLACKS said: ... 16% favorable....79% UNFAVORABLE!

     

    Q60: If an election for president were going to be held TODAY ...?
    Moderates
    said: 56% BIDEN!...29% trump
    **BLACKS said:  81% BIDEN!!... 5% trump

     

     

     
    thirdperson
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2020 - 11:41 AM ET #122

    According to realclearpolitics, polls conducted in final 21 days of presidential elections  have historically been quite accurate.  Average error margin is 4 percentage points.  Error is defined as the difference between a poll's margin of error between top 2 candidates and the actual vote.  Even in 2016, error margin is still close to the long term average.

    Reply

    According to realclearpolitics, polls conducted in final 21 days of presidential elections  have historically been quite accurate.  Average error margin is 4 percentage points.  Error is defined as the difference between a poll's margin of error between top 2 candidates and the actual vote.  Even in 2016, error margin is still close to the long term average.

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2020 - 5:34 PM ET #123

    Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

    According to realclearpolitics, polls conducted in final 21 days of presidential elections have historically been quite accurate. Average error margin is 4 percentage points. Error is defined as the difference between a poll's margin of error between top 2 candidates and the actual vote. Even in 2016, error margin is still close to the long term average.
      Good point!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

    According to realclearpolitics, polls conducted in final 21 days of presidential elections have historically been quite accurate. Average error margin is 4 percentage points. Error is defined as the difference between a poll's margin of error between top 2 candidates and the actual vote. Even in 2016, error margin is still close to the long term average.
      Good point!

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2020 - 5:40 PM ET #124

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q79: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as President?
    MODERATES said:
    38% ... approval
    59% ... DISAPPROVAL an_light


    Q82: Do you think Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like YOU?
    MODERATES said:
    31% ... yes, he cares
    65% ... NO, he does NOT!
    *NOTE: BLACKS say: 19% yes / 77% NO!


    Q91: Do you think JOE BIDEN cares about the needs and problems of people like YOU?
    MODERATES said:
    54% ... YES, Biden cares!
    38% ... no
    *NOTE: BLACKS say: 71% YES! / 19% no

     

     Q85: Do you think president Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?
    LIBERALS said: ... 10% yes ....... 83% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
    Moderates say: ... 27% yes ....... 61% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
    Conservatives: .... 66% Yes .... 20% no
    **BLACKS say: ... 13% yes .......73% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!


    Q94: Do you think JOE BIDEN is honest and trustworthy, or not?
    LIBERALS said: ... 70% YES!! ...13% no
    Moderates say: ... 45% YES ....... 31% no
    Conservatives: .... 15% yes......... 67% HELL NO!
    **BLACKS say: ... 58% YES ....... 11% no

     

    Reply

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q79: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as President?
    MODERATES said:
    38% ... approval
    59% ... DISAPPROVAL an_light


    Q82: Do you think Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like YOU?
    MODERATES said:
    31% ... yes, he cares
    65% ... NO, he does NOT!
    *NOTE: BLACKS say: 19% yes / 77% NO!


    Q91: Do you think JOE BIDEN cares about the needs and problems of people like YOU?
    MODERATES said:
    54% ... YES, Biden cares!
    38% ... no
    *NOTE: BLACKS say: 71% YES! / 19% no

     

     Q85: Do you think president Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?
    LIBERALS said: ... 10% yes ....... 83% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
    Moderates say: ... 27% yes ....... 61% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
    Conservatives: .... 66% Yes .... 20% no
    **BLACKS say: ... 13% yes .......73% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!


    Q94: Do you think JOE BIDEN is honest and trustworthy, or not?
    LIBERALS said: ... 70% YES!! ...13% no
    Moderates say: ... 45% YES ....... 31% no
    Conservatives: .... 15% yes......... 67% HELL NO!
    **BLACKS say: ... 58% YES ....... 11% no

     

     
     
    fubah2
    fubah2
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 53258
    Posted: Aug. 3, 2020 - 1:32 AM ET #125

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL advice from infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci?
    MODERATES said:
    60% ...TRUST Dr.Fauci
    17% ... don't trust

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL ADVICE from trump?
    MODERATES said:
    29% ... trust trump
    60% ... DO NOT TRUST trump!

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL advice from infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci?
    **REPUBLICANS said:
    38% ... trust the doctor
    45% ... DO NOT TRUST FAUCI, the infectious disease expert

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL ADVICE from trump?
    **REPUBLICANS said:
    76% ... trust trump for MEDICAL advice!
     11% ... don't trust trump


    Q41: Are you confident in Trump’s ability to deal wisely with the
    coronavirus outbreak, or are you uneasy about his approach?
    MODERATES said:
    26% ...confident
    62% ...UNEASY!

     

    Reply

    Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

    July 26 - 28, 2020
    = 1500; ±3.5% MOE

    **As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
    from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

     

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL advice from infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci?
    MODERATES said:
    60% ...TRUST Dr.Fauci
    17% ... don't trust

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL ADVICE from trump?
    MODERATES said:
    29% ... trust trump
    60% ... DO NOT TRUST trump!

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL advice from infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci?
    **REPUBLICANS said:
    38% ... trust the doctor
    45% ... DO NOT TRUST FAUCI, the infectious disease expert

    Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL ADVICE from trump?
    **REPUBLICANS said:
    76% ... trust trump for MEDICAL advice!
     11% ... don't trust trump


    Q41: Are you confident in Trump’s ability to deal wisely with the
    coronavirus outbreak, or are you uneasy about his approach?
    MODERATES said:
    26% ...confident
    62% ...UNEASY!

     

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