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Bookmaker closes betting for election at 12am EST...

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Posts: 48

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 11:15 AM ET #26

current Bookmaker odds with about 45 min til they close...

Obama (-425) / Romney (+355)

Obama to win (by state):

Colorado (-230)
Florida (+220)
Iowa (-425)
Ohio (-420)
Virginia (-235)
Wisconsin (-800)

the Ohio and Virginia lines spell disaster for those who took Romney... but the Florida lines tell me that my hopes of a clean sweep are unlikely... oh well...

djbrow

Covers Referee

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 15765

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 11:37 AM ET #27

Virginia went in opposite direction of my expectations.

I still think that a good weather turnout in VA helps Romney as much as Obama. We will see....

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 12:07 PM ET #28

CO and VA lines came down to (-210) before closing...

looks like the closing line on the overall election is Obama (-420) / Romney (+350)

interestingly... every line i bet i did so because i was following what i believe is the most credible source... and that source had percentages for the election and the states that are almost perfectly in line with the closing lines for the election and the states...

nippzOR

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 117

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 12:11 PM ET #29

obama now @ -390

djbrow

Covers Referee

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 15765

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 12:16 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

CO and VA lines came down to (-210) before closing...

looks like the closing line on the overall election is Obama (-420) / Romney (+350)

interestingly... every line i bet i did so because i was following what i believe is the most credible source... and that source had percentages for the election and the states that are almost perfectly in line with the closing lines for the election and the states...

Well, from a purely gambling standpoint, the books are simply doing what they do in all games...looking for lines to equalize money. I imagine many of the 'sharps' so to speak are looking at the same percentage lines before making major wagers.

The partisan wagering that you see on this site is small change and unlikely to really move any numbers.

ApocalypseLater

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 1:45 PM ET #31

oh i wasn't suggesting that any lines are being moved by people on this site... i was just pointing out that the lines have moved towards the percentages that are suggested by the source that i was following...

and actually, to clarify... i am just talking about the individual states... my bet on Obama to win the election was made back in July, and i wasn't paying any attention to polls or any other media source regarding what would happen...

to me, the movement in the direction of where the percentages predicted is confirmation that those percentages were credible... we'll see... but i think we're in good shape... from a wagering perspective, that is...

nippzOR

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 117

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 1:54 PM ET #32

-340 now line is droppin fast

djbrow

Covers Referee

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 15765

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 1:56 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

oh i wasn't suggesting that any lines are being moved by people on this site... i was just pointing out that the lines have moved towards the percentages that are suggested by the source that i was following...

and actually, to clarify... i am just talking about the individual states... my bet on Obama to win the election was made back in July, and i wasn't paying any attention to polls or any other media source regarding what would happen...

to me, the movement in the direction of where the percentages predicted is confirmation that those percentages were credible... we'll see... but i think we're in good shape... from a wagering perspective, that is...

Oh agreed. I had Romney +2100 from 2011, then sold a majority of that after the Repub convention by buying Obama -195. That line sucked as I wished I waited for after the first debate. It cost me big time.

I think I errored again with Virginia as that was my biggest 'dawg play on the states and it is moving in solid Obama direction.

Just too much has to go Romney's way.

nippzOR

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 117

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 1:56 PM ET #34

-320

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 3:16 PM ET #35

nippz... that (-320) was a line at Bookmaker, or some other book? lowest i saw it get today was (-370), and currently is sitting at (-380)... but i was out for a couple hours, so maybe there was big movement during that time...

anyway, current line is (-380), and it says they will close it at 7 EST now... which i have to assume will be real this time, since VA. polls will be closed at that time...

captjohn67

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 12821

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 3:26 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Virginia went in opposite direction of my expectations.

I still think that a good weather turnout in VA helps Romney as much as Obama. We will see....

romney is +100 now...it was +145 mid-dayish

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 5:47 PM ET #37

last line i saw before Bookmaker finally closed the window...

Obama (-400) / Romney (+340)

here we go...

Laroja

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 12241

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 6:04 PM ET #38

-375ish at my book. Obama wins this imo.

michaelpaul1

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 22613

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 9:03 PM ET #39

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 6, 2012 - 9:24 PM ET #40

at this point, the results have confirmed all of the polls, and are actually shading more towards Obama... so the electoral vote is over... i just don't think that is remotely debatable...

my interest now is in Virginia and Florida... i want to sweep this board!

even No Carolina is up in the air... Michigan was a blowout, and Reps were holding onto hope for that... Pennsylvania has been declared over by FoxNews...

hope is all but vanished for Romney to win the election...

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 7, 2012 - 12:53 AM ET #41

i've been out for the past few hours having dinner with friends...

i know Obama won... i know Obama has taken Ohio, Colorado, Iowa... i know Florida is split in half...

but someone tell me if there has been an official declaration in Virginia, or what is happening... not finding anything certain on it right now... has VA been called? what's it looking like?

ApocalypseLater

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 7, 2012 - 2:12 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

my wagers:

Obama (-160) to win the EC

Colorado (-125)

Florida (+170)

Iowa (-260)
Ohio (-260)
Virginia (-125)

15 Unit profit, with Florida pending... not my worst day of betting ever... really want to sweep that board, though...

lemonsky

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 2645

Posted: Nov. 7, 2012 - 2:18 AM ET #43

I think you mean "not my best day of betting ever".

What I can't believe is the North Dakota senate race. Heidi Heitkamp was about +450 and it looks like she is going to pull it off by a couple thousand votes.

And Jon Tester in Montana was about +150 and he's running away with it.

I assumed anything above +200 meant that the favorite was going to win.

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 7, 2012 - 2:38 AM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by lemonsky:

I think you mean "not my best day of betting ever".

no... i meant what i said... admittedly, i was being fecetious, but i said it right...

true, it's also not my best day of betting, in terms of the amount of money (or units) won... my best day was a 10-1 day in CFB where i bet 2 units on every game... so i won about 18 units on that day... if Florida wins, this day will be a +16 unit day...

however, i think given the fact that there is much more luck involved in CFB handicapping than there is in something like this... one could argue (if i get Florida) that this is my best day of handicapping... simply because it was such a bullseye in every respect...

lemonsky

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 2645

Posted: Nov. 7, 2012 - 2:59 AM ET #45

Ah, I'm so tired I can't register anything non-literal.

By the way, it seems with all the polling, the numbers would be sharp and that competitive races would be between +100 and -130.

The major upsets are Tester at +150 (and it was +180 within the last week), Obama carrying Florida, but the biggest upset is Heitkamp in North Dakota where all but 1 precinct has reported and she's up 3500 votes. +450. Wow. But I'm not surprised. North Dakotans are conservative but smart. They figure it's in their best interest to have one Dem and one Rep in the Senate. Heitkamp won while Obama lost by 62,000 votes, so obviously, there were alot of split tickets.

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 7, 2012 - 3:10 AM ET #46

i think for someone paying attention to those races (which i was not, at all)... there was probably more likely to be value on an underdog, because oddsmakers wouldn't really be able to have accurate polling data (if any)... so not too shocked to see a +450 bet cashing in, especially in a state like ND, that nobody is paying attention to...

the Florida upset, however... would be one that i think would shock most... i wish i had had more confidence in it... my gut was telling me to double my wager on that one, but i figured i should stay disciplined... when the line was up around (+220), i was really tempted...

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 10, 2012 - 1:06 PM ET #47

my wagers:

Obama (-160) to win the EC

Colorado (-125)

Florida (+170)

Iowa (-260)
Ohio (-260)
Virginia (-125)

Final Results! clean sweep!

16.7 Units profit!

ApocalypseLater

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4260

Posted: Nov. 17, 2012 - 2:37 AM ET #48

pay attention, UHQB... this is your wake up call!

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