Math Majors

I'm pretty good at math but not this good .... what are the odds of me losing these 2 hands b2b all in preflop for the tourney:

https://www.pokerhand.org/?5135783

https://www.pokerhand.org/?5135786

I know its not that bad ... probably somewhere in the low 90's but i'm just steaming the last 3 weeks from ridiculous beats. 

LeafsNeedD = mt99808 by the way

Well in hand one you were 66.13% to win (5.5% to tie) and in hand two you were 54.6% to win (21.18% to tie) so I guess if you wanted to figure the odds of you losing both youd multiply the other other sides by each other coming out to be: 6.87 % but I may have done that wrong.

Regardless of the odds those were both really standard hands.

How about this one outer from jokerstars on my next game:

https://www.pokerhand.org/?5135871

I mean,  you guys got it all in preflop so at that point he was 17.71% but after the flop he was only 4.34% to win.

Its still standard to get those hands in preflop given the blinds and your stack sizes. But yes they are rough hands regardless

I realize this is a standard flop but the hand immediately following this i lost all in when i was called by KQ with 77 only to see a Q come on the river.  I broke my mouse.  Good night folks. 

Thanks man .... i understand its not a bad call .... i'm talking more about what are the odds of him hitting that after that flop ..... he's got 1 fucking card. 

I've done very well at stars but i've been running like this for 3 weeks and i'm ready to find somewhere else to play. 

Its not the flop im saying is standard im saying its standard to get all in with those hands in those situations.

And kq is 46% to win so i mean it sucks to lose but thats gonna happen about half the time in that type of situation.

With one out on the flop he is about 4%, if it was on the turn hed be about 2%. Everyone runs bad you jsut have to properly manage your bankroll so that you can sustain the bad runs.

I know man ... i'm just venting .... i don't even know why i started a thread.  I'm normally not "that guy" to complain about a site but i can its gotten to the point where i can be an 80% fav preflop and i'm just expecting to lose. 

ya i'm alright ... i play about 40x bankroll ... but i tend to tilt at higher stakes when i hit runs like this. 

Yea see everything alright. Clearly you have a decent idea of whats going on and its good to take shots but just make sure to damage control if you start to play bad Dont wanna destroy all your hard earned work.

Thanks man .... i was ready to tilt .....but i just went and cruised these forums for 20 minutes which is more than entertaining ..... gonna go burn one and play a couple more.  Thanks for calming me down. 

So it's these two B2B to send you to the rail?

KQ v Ks6s - He's only got 3 cards in the whole deck minus the spades but it's dumb for that to influence his call at all. Preflop you'd be about 73-75% by my count. 3 outs x 8, and that's if you don't hit a Q. After the flop you've got him 86% unless there are 2 spades on the board. Going to the river if he hasn't made a draw of some sort it's 92% for you to win the hand.

A8 v A5 - This is a lot closer because your kicker isn't as strong so it's more likely to see a chop pot. After the flop though you're really strong. Going to the river he' got 7 outs to win ~ 84% you're gonna win.

That 88 v 77 one outer is sick by the way, I think I might have thrown up. Perfect card had to hit him and it did.

On the first hand, you were 69% EV (incl splitting ties). 

On the second, 65%.

So you were the favorite both times, but perhaps this is the wrong question.  I'm going to assume you were about a 65% favorite on a lot of hands earlier in the game and that you won almost all of them.  Thats how you got to the large chip stack to begin with. 

So you had a string of good luck.  Then you hit some bad luck and you lost. 

What are the odds? 

It depends on how you phrase the question.  If you want to say "what are the odds that I lost on one particular hand that I lost on?"

Not very good.

The better question is "What are the odds that I eventually lose on 65/35 odds twice in a row if I play enough hands"

Extremely high.

Think about it another way, A5 will beat A8 a higher percentage of the time than Alex Rodriguez will get hits in at bats.  

What are the odds A-Rod gets two hits in a row?  High enough that you shouldn't be shocked when it happens....