Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Scal -
Kudos on the enormous write up. Who cares that it lost. If you got paid by the word, you are clearly a winner.
I am curious about your poker reference at the end. Mostly because you bring up a situation that I have long thought about poker - and have posted here many times.
My theory that poker is a "threshold skill" level game - meaning that you can only get so good and then you it comes down to luck. And since the rake is big enough to cover the luck swings - everyone goes down at some point unless you are sponsored or have some "lottery" type of winning in a big tournament. Everyone is either an A or B player. 95% of people are B players (not threshold skilll), but 5% are A players (threshold skill).
There arent enough B players money to go around, and so all of these so called "poker stars" all fade out (without endorsement money).
Curious if you can validate that with your seemingly vast knowledge of all things Tom Dwan. He is just one of probably hundreds that have come and gone as the new poker star du jour on ESPN and others - and seemingly drop off of the planet. Know of others? Disagree or agree with my poker position?
Respect your opinion.
Great theory Van.
It can only be answered with gray area involved so I'll do so like Politifact and that is "Mostly True".
There are (well there 'were') two worlds in poker: online and real life live games.
If you are trying to become a top pro, in the online world where bets and accounts are segregated, rakes are defined and cash-outs can only be done in moderately small amounts, the cash flows that funnel through the site supports your theory, that is, the rake takes the majority of players down and then only the skilled players play at top levels for the money amounts that are called 'nosebleed stakes'. These are roll crushing stakes and really, they should not be played. It's terrible roll management.
Now in the REAL world, the rakes are defined but guess what, the cash flows (that is the money in the poker economy) are disrupted by something very near and dear to our hearts: Degenerate poker players who are gamblers.
Phil Ivey is a notoriously bad (bad - because who is 'good') craps players and he literally has lost MILLIONS on the craps table. Where did those millions come from? Poker winnings.
Dwan is in and out of debt day in day out. So the rake takes you down but then the money you lost isn't there tomorrow either because Ivey lost it at the craps table. PLUS these guys lead extravagant lifestyles taking even more money out of the poker economy.
So you get taken out by the rake in the online world and you get taken out by the rake AND degenerate poker players removing money from the poker economy that you lost and need back the next day. It's not there the next day.
Now to your endorsement point. You are correct. How do we know? The TOP players left long-standing now are Ivey, Negraneau, and Hellmuth.
ALL have endorsement deals.
And when Ivey, in the shadows a bit, sold his name and created a site to sell his image, I was terrified for the poker economy. Because when the greatest living player of all time has to do that, poker is in trouble. He should be able to make money on the table alone and that hasn't held true. The games haven't held up.
Finally, who are some of the names that have gone the way of the Dodo? Too many to count.
But one in particular Illari Shahamies (aka Ziggmund) a Finnish poker player and perhaps among the most fearless (or craziest) poker players who ever lived.
He was looked at as right there with Dwan if not a bit under him and they had MILLION dollar online battles.
Today? He's done. I have no idea where the hell he is. All his money is likely gone. He still has the skill to play but no roll to support himself.
Just to show you how degenerate these players are and how they simply can't gamble enough on anything and everything, watch this hand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gdyGOIPMng
Look who sat it out...Phil Hellmuth. Negraneau can play because his pokerstar endorsement money is beyond enormous.
Patrick Antonious, another tremendous young gun poker player. I have no idea where he went.
He had, from a good authority, $5 million online in this Full Tilt account when the Feds shut it down.
I have no idea where Patrick is.
Sammy Farha? Gone. Where the hell is he? Moneymaker? Where? Jaime Gold - winner of the biggest tournament ever? Rumored to be broke. And he was no better than your average 1-2 player.
Those aren't young guns per se but they all have disappeared. Hellmuth stands tall.
I'll tell you there are new names out there. Doug Polk is an outstanding young player who almost certainly will survive the long term. He has special skills and this is key, he is not entranced by the nosebleed stakes that can crush a roll in one night.
I hope I answered your question.
Oh and if you are interested Guy Liberte, the owner of Cirque De Soliel, funneled $25 MILLION dollars of his money into Full Tilt.
So a lot of these young kids tore him up, became millionaires overnight and then when the competition wasn't a circus promoter, they lost their rolls.
your wish is my command. Anything else? You want fries with that?
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