Statsationals NFL Picks With Kelly

Hey Herb

Thanks for the post

Firstly trends of 10-0 or 0-10 are statistically insignificant to me.  I do not think they have enough of a history to warrant a play one way or another.  When you look at trends on covers for every game they are usually a very small sample and really useless.  I also want to look for trends that have occurred across the entire league.  You may have a certain trend that worked well but if you dig deep it pertained to just a few teams during years they were very good ats.

So when I find trends that have enough games behind them I look at the percentage its won.  Some trends may be 75% but that does not mean it will always hit at that rate.  Several factors go in to determining the percentage I will come up with for that trend after that.  Basically I do not anticipate a trend to stay at 75% or 80% forever so I am looking for a reversion to the mean.  The details I would prefer to keep to myself which I am sure you understand. 

But once the number is determined each game is looked at.  There may be 5 trends pointing toward one team and 1 toward the other.  The strength of each one of those plays is determined.  Two 55% plays opposing each other gives me no play.  4 plays on the same side will give me a play and the percentage of strength of that play will be based on how strong those trends are.  I hope that helps a little.

BOL to you as well
  

Guys just putting the games on the 2nd page.  I will be offline until Sunday morning.  Feel free to msg me or post with any questions and I will be back Sunday to answer them.

Play smart and lets make some money Sunday.

Thanks for the reply Stat.s. Based on my system and simply taking a cursory review at this point - busy with college..lol.....i like 3 teams currently:

1. Detroit - 8.5...or whatever the spread may be.

2. Denver - 

3. sandiego.....personally i think sandiego wins the game outright.  I'll takem both ways m/l and spread.

All on the spread - so we are good on 2 out of 3 so far....i'll do more number crunching later....either way i wish you and everyone the best.  And we will definitely discuss more.

 

NFL Week 2 Results (so far)

8-3-1  72.7% for the week

14-4-1 77.7% for the season

2 more to go with the big play tonight.

Picks

1. Philadelphia -2.5 - 69%

2. Houston -3  - 64%

3. Giants -4.5 - 61%

4. Cincinnati +4.5 - 59%

5. Jacksonville +9.5 - 59%

6. Minnesota -3 - 59%

7. Arizona +4.5 - 58%

8. San Diego +7 - 57%

9. Oakland +3.5 - 57%

10. Cleveland -2 - 57%

11.Detroit -8 - 56%

12. Pittsburgh -14 - 55%

13. San Francisco +3 - 55% PUSH

14. Carolina +9.5 - 54%

Hey Stats great work brother.  Should have had Minnesota today as well but they completely blew it.  Keep up the good work

I like your picks, and I respect your privacy over the methodology you are using.

I just have two basic questions:

First, rather than making it sound like the trends you're using are "too complicated to explain", would you be so kind as you give us an example of just one?

Second, if you spot a trend that is 180-120 (60% winners), who's to say the exact same trend won't flip-flop and go 120-180 (40% winners) over its next 300 instances?

Thanks for your feedback.

Hey PT, thanks.  Minn was a tough one but those all balance out.  I don't get too worked up over it.  Looks like the vick mistakes and his injury may kill the big game tonight.  That's gambling.

PB
1.  Thanks for respecting my privacy and the work put in.  I can give you a trend.  Play teams in week 1 that had a points per pass average greater than .6 playing an opponent whose last season interception differential is greater than 0 and exclude teams that beat this opponent SU by more than 14 in their last meeting.  Its 67-27.

2.  Nothing can tell me if that will happen but I do account for a regression to the mean otherwise most of these plays would come up as 70%+.

Hey Stats, would like to ask you a question, not sure if you'd prefer it in here or through a pvt msg so added you as a friend.

NFL Week 2 Results (so far)

8-4-1  66.7% for the week

14-5-1 73.7% for the season

1 more game left.  I will update the Kelly when we finish the week.

Picks

1. Philadelphia -2.5 - 69%

2. Houston -3  - 64%

3. Giants -4.5 - 61%

4. Cincinnati +4.5 - 59%

5. Jacksonville +9.5 - 59%

6. Minnesota -3 - 59%

7. Arizona +4.5 - 58%

8. San Diego +7 - 57%

9. Oakland +3.5 - 57%

10. Cleveland -2 - 57%

11.Detroit -8 - 56%

12. Pittsburgh -14 - 55%

13. San Francisco +3 - 55% PUSH

14. Carolina +9.5 - 54%

Statsational, nice jobs.. buddy. looking to tail u all the way to playoff. keep up the good work. Good things u have your systems going on.. i been working on my trend and 2nh half bets, and its not working for me so far this year.

Thanks TS

I look forward to seeing you on the thread

Stats

excellent work my friend.....i hit a 12 team teaser in college....and loved det, pitt, clev, and atl....i bet denv and sd.....they f...@#$%^ me but still ended up winning...i love the giants tonite....we shall see.....ttyl

NFL Week 2 Results

9-4-1  69.2% for the week

15-5-1 75% for the season

500 Starting Bankroll

585.10 +17.02%


Picks

1. Philadelphia -2.5 - 69%

2. Houston -3  - 64%

3. Giants -4.5 - 61%

4. Cincinnati +4.5 - 59%

5. Jacksonville +9.5 - 59%

6. Minnesota -3 - 59%

7. Arizona +4.5 - 58%

8. San Diego +7 - 57%

9. Oakland +3.5 - 57%

10. Cleveland -2 - 57%

11.Detroit -8 - 56%

12. Pittsburgh -14 - 55%

13. San Francisco +3 - 55% PUSH

14. Carolina +9.5 - 54%

Nice work again.  Looking forward to Week 3!  Thanks for the info.

Just updating to see how flat betting at 2% bankroll would be doing. 

Week 1 we would be +49 at 11 per game.

Week 2 starting bank 549 we would be 11 per game again for +46.

Flat betting total 595 +19%.

Next week the bets go up to 12/game.

Flat betting is slightly ahead here.  Philly hurt the Kelly big time.  If that game had gone as it probably should have, the Kelly would be blowing away the flat betting.  But that is the danger of the Kelly and we are watching it in action.

I think for the average bettor flat betting between 1-5% per play is safest way to go.  That is how I usually play.  But for a small bank trying to make a big score the Kelly may be advantageous.  If a guy with 10k for the year is not looking to risk all 10k then it wouldn't be wise to use the Kelly but that same guy may take 500 out of his bank and run a Kelly system.

I had a college business professor ask "what is the first goal of any business"?  Most people said, "to make a profit."  The correct answer was "to stay in business".  It's the same goal any gambler/investor should have.  This is a business.  There is no way to make money tomorrow if you lose it all today.  Once the doors close the business is over.  You can survive for a while without making a profit, you just can't lose it all.  That's why betting everything you are down from Sunday on MNF is never smart.  It's that type of mentality that gets people in trouble. 

The average person never makes it in this business or in trading because we are not programmed to lose.  Most people go to work and at the end of the day they earned a sum of money.  When trading or gambling you may lose money at the end of the day.  You may lose money for weeks.  Casinos dont worry too much when they get hit for a big night by a blackjack player.  They know they have a slight edge on the game and over many hands they will win.  That same mentality has to be used when sports betting.  If you find an edge then exploit it as many times as you can and do not worry about the bumps along the way.

-Stats

Nice work Stats. I'll be following along. Good Luck!

NFL WEEK 3

15-5-1 75%

$500 Starting Bankroll

$585.1 New Bankroll +17.02%

Picks

1. Jacksonville +3.5.............64%

2. San Francisco +2.5..........62%

3. Baltimore -3.5..................61% 

4. Green Bay -3.5.................61%

5. Atlanta +1.5......................59% 

6. Houston +4.......................56%  

7. Kansas City +14.5.............55%

8. Washington +6.................55%

9. Oakland +3......................55%

10. Minnesota +3.5...............54%

11. NY Giants +7.5................54%

OK guys I finished the work for this week.  I did some scrubbing of my trends.  I had a couple in that I do not think were as strong as my others so they have been eliminated.  The key to these is putting stats together that correlate, have the trends affect the entire league historically, and have a large number of games for each trend.  The ones I eliminated did not affect enough teams. Hopefully that makes sense.  Unfortunately if I took these out last week we would have done better.  I did not take these out trying to improve on last week it just happened to be a byproduct of the work put in this week.

For the Washington and NYG Picks, these trends are not based on the line or injuries.  Take them regardless when there is a line posted.  The line will reflect the injuries or lack there of.

Kelly Straight Bets

1    $48
2    $38
3    $33
4    $33
5    $24
6    $12
7    $9
8    $9
9    $9
10    $5
11    $5


I wont take up room here with all the parlays.  There are  84 bets in total.  If you want to see them all plug the numbers in this calculator.  I will use all 84 bets toward the bank roll because that is the purpose of the thread. 


-Stats

good luck this week  

Thanks Stats for helping/sharing your formula plays.  Will start flat bet all of your plays this Sunday.  Too bad I cannot wager anything smaller then fifty bux. Stay hot buddy!

NFL WEEK 3

15-5-1 75%

$500 Starting Bankroll

$585.1 New Bankroll +17.02%

Picks

1. Jacksonville +3.5.............64%

2. San Francisco +2.5..........62%

3. Baltimore -3.5..................61% 

4. Green Bay -3.5.................61%

5. Atlanta +1.5......................59% 

6. Houston +4.......................56%  

7. Kansas City +14.5.............55%

8. Washington +6.................55%

9. Oakland +3......................55%

10. Minnesota +3.5...............54%

11. NY Giants +9................54%

I just got a line on the NYG of +9 so I am updating the lines as the previous line was just an indication until the game came back on the board.  I will do the same with Wash when I get a line I can get down on.

Stational, Im ready to make huge profits this weeks.. Let the game begin.... So i see you got jaxs is one of the top plays for the week.. I might have to add a little more units on that team.

Guys

Looks like we wont have a line on the wash game before the games start today.  There will be a line tomorrow.  For the kelly I am going to take it out and just play the game flat tomorrow based on the bank after today.

GL everyone

Stats - first thanks for all your efforts. - However, this week we you and i are in agreement on only a few games - they are - SF, GB, Atl, ,

avoiding carol/jack b/c of qb change and wash/dallas as of now.  Based on formula and trends - stl, no, sd, detr, phi,

as always i wish u and everyone the best.

TB

 

Thanks Buddah

As always I wish you the best of luck.