Statsationals NFL Picks With Kelly

I have a database of stats for almost 20 years of NFL stats.  Its extremely comprehensive.  I put together about 100 trends, based on these stats, that have been successful.  Successful trends are determined by those that have been profitable over many years and many games.  The "home dog on Monday night coming off an ATS loss to a divisional opponent that is 12-0 in the last 12 games" trend (I am making this up) is not counted because 12 games do not make up enough of a sample set to determine whether or not the trend is worth playing.

The trends are complex and I can not go into each one.  Some games will qualify for multiple trends some for just one and some none at all.  The ones that give me a probability of 53% or more I will be playing.  I will post here the side and percentages as well as the amount played if you were using a Kelly System.  The games will be played all at the same time, regardless of when they are being played.  I will also post the parlays that should be played as well.  I want to see how well I can do with this.  Lets start now.

$500 Starting Bankroll

Kelly Multiplier = 1

7 Games

1. Buffalo +6.5        -        58%
2. Miami +7            -        58%
3. Detroit +1.5        -        56%
4. Cincinnati +6.5    -       55%
5. Dallas +4            -        55%
6. Minnesota +9      -        54%
7. Baltimore -1.5     -         53%

Straight Bets

1    $41
2    $41
3    $25
4    $18
5    $18
6    $11
7    $4

Parlays

1+2    $5
1+3    $3
2+3    $3
1+4    $2
2+4    $2
3+4    $1
1+5    $2
2+5    $2
3+5    $1
4+5    $1
1+6    $1
2+6    $1
3+6    $1
4+6    $1
5+6    $1
1+7    $1
2+7    $1

Lots of dogs this week. 

If anyone has a specific trend they are curious about let me know and I can run the numbers for you.

7 Games

1. Buffalo +6.5        -        58%

2. Miami +7            -        58%

3. Detroit +1.5        -        56%

4. Cincinnati +6.5    -       55%
5. Dallas +4            -        55%
6. Minnesota +9      -        54%
7. Baltimore -1.5     -         53%

With the parlays its +98.55.  Good Start

5-0 Start +116.50 with the parlays

I don't post often (at all), but I thought I should here. Tailed you on the 5 early plays (although not the parlays) today. Thanks for posting and I'll be looking forward to your picks every week this season!

Thanks for the kind words and blind faith.  It's early so I don't want to get too excited.  Believe it or not I am 13-0 in my office pool so far.  Lets go Cowboys!!!

Well Dallas sure made that easy lol.  6-0 to start the season.  Ok lets get Miami tomorrow and sweep it.

$500 Starting Bankroll
+146.11
$646.11 New Bankroll

Straight Bets
6-0 100%

Portfolio is up 29.22%

Excellent work today. Do you have a link or an explanation of the Kelly system?

Thanks Drake.

I will let wiki explain the Kelly Criterion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

It is a money management system.  It only works if you have a good sense of the probability of each play.  If you had a 55 red and 45 black marbles in a bag and someone was paying you even money to pull a red marble then using Kelly would maximize your profits without risking too much,.  In that scenario you are obviously getting the better end of it but would you risk your entire bankroll on one pull?  Probably not, or at least you shouldn't.  Over time you will continue to beat the game under those conditions.  Kelly in sports betting is difficult because its hard to be accurate with your probabilities. 

The games went 6-0 so far and actually 14-0 if i played every game but that is obviously not going to be the norm.  If we can do 55% for the season on average we should do very well.  As the season goes on we should see some much higher probability plays which will get a bigger percentage of the bets.  Of course we will need to hit those at a higher percentage to make money.

Overall I think we will pick a very good percentage of winners.  I wanted to use this thread to see how it would fair with Kelly.  I am running it like a portfolio.  $500 is a small amount but one that is easy for many to follow.  We may find that flat betting was the way to go with this.  Maybe a labby.  I am sure everyone will do their own thing.  Lets see how it plays out.

Just remember if you followed the games or not yesterday do not go and toss half of your bankroll on Miami tonight.  Its one of the 2 best plays I had this weekend but this game should win 58 of 100 times.  You wouldn't put all of your bank on the red marble, would you?

Statsational,

I sent you a friend request brother and will be following you.  Is this the first year you are using this system or have you used it in the past?

Hey PT

I accepted.  Feel free to contact me anytime.

This is the first year I am trying this exactly as I have it right now.  I have capped for many years and I am a bit of a numbers geek.  I am trying to take some of what I do in the trading world and bring it to my capping.  Like technical analysis and charting.  Finding trends that work,  I have been fairly good in the NFL in the past.  Primarily because its really all I have concentrated on from a sports gambling standpoint.  I have a hard time doing the work daily for MLB or NBA and I know nothing about NHL.

Stats

Statsatinal. im looking forward to tail you week 2 nfl... keep up the good work

 

Glad to have you on board trend

NFL WEEK 1 Recap


6-1 85.7%

$500 Starting Bankroll
+91.11
$591.11 New Bankroll +18.22%




1. Buffalo +6.5        -        58%

2. Miami +7            -        58%

3. Detroit +1.5        -        56%

4. Cincinnati +6.5    -       55% 

5. Dallas +4            -        55%

6. Minnesota +9      -        54%

7. Baltimore -1.5     -         53%

This was a nice start.  I expect more plays this week then we had last week.  As data becomes more available i.e. they play more games, trends are established and the number of games qualifying as plays should increase.  We should also see stronger plays.  On the whole, the system lost both games last night and ended up 14-2.  Of course in my 6 out of 6 pool I had Mia so I went 5-1 . 

Excellent start

Just copy and pasting a post from The Buddha on my blog.  I am still learning how this works so I assume he sent this to the blog and it doesn't show on the forum.  But it may answer questions others had.

Excellent info. I like the fact you use something to decide on who you will take. Your system makes sense to me, a couple of thoughts and questions:

1. My thought process has always been that every half a point in football or basketball means something - that being the case, do you feel simply lumping home dogs, road favorites etc.....with different point spreads makes a difference?

That's going to depend on each scenario.  Some trends I am looking for home dogs of less than 3 and sometimes I am looking at home dogs of more than 10.  It really depends on what else I am linking to the trend. 

2. Are any of your trends hovering around 75%?

Some of the trends perform well above 75%.  The % I give you is not how they have performed historically, but what the probability of this particular game is based on numerous trends, how many games historically have fit this trend etc.  You will see the highest percentage on the picks I post usually around 60% but on occasion we will get some over 70%.  This is why I am trying Kelly with this.  It may not prove to be the best but we are going to find that out.  I am sure many will just flat bet these, which is good as well.

3. I follow a different system that gets deeper into the numbers. If you checkout my blog...i provide details of how i do college....with pros i break out off into rushing and passing and in defense...i break it out into rushing and passing...thus 6 data points to look at and follwo patterns.

I will have a look thanks

4. For this week in the pros....i have to look at last years data....eventhough things have chnaged, i find it still somewhat relevant but i go small this week. I like dallas +4, Az, clev, buff, nyg, bears, balt, denver...all on the spread.

5-3.  Very good start.  Nice to see we were on some of the same games.  You are correct most of what I do is look at last year during the early weeks.  What is important in sports betting, like trading, is psychology of the market.  Part of trading and, I believe, sports betting, is understanding the psyche of the participants in the game.  I don't mean the players on the field I mean the players in the pits or the sports books.  If you watched the Sunday night pre game Tony Dungy could not imagine how Dallas could ever keep the game close.  Then at halftime they were laughing that he was very wrong.  If you listen to the "expert" analysts they generally feel how the public does.  And the public has a perception based on last year, early in the season.  The lines tend to show that.  The numbers can help sift through the perceptions and get you on some winners.

5. Good Luck to do you and let's discuss more.

Hit me up any time and lets make this fun and profitable.

NFL WEEK 2

6-1 85.7%

$500 Starting Bankroll

$591.11 New Bankroll +18.22%

Picks

1. Philadelphia -2.5 - 69%

2. Houston -3  - 64%

3. Giants -4.5 - 61%

4. Cincinnati +4.5 - 59%

5. Jacksonville +9.5 - 59%

6. Minnesota -3 - 59%

7. Arizona +4.5 - 58%

8. San Diego +7 - 57%

9. Oakland +3.5 - 57%

10. Cleveland -2 - 57%

11.Detroit -8 - 56%

12. Pittsburgh -14 - 55%

13. San Francisco +3 - 55%

14. Carolina +9.5 - 54%

We obviously have quite a few plays this week.  Use your discretion on which lines to grab now and which to wait on.

I am sure most will just flat bet these.  For the thread I am going to be using the Kelly Criterion to see how it works with this system.  The amount of bets are tremendous with all of the parlays.  My purpose is to see if this system with Kelly would be optimal.  If you are flat betting and want to put more on the higher percentage games that is your call.  Just maintain good money management and lets stay in the game long term.  It may be worthwhile if someone wanted to track a flat bet of 2% of the $500 bankroll to start and then 2% of the bankroll on each game as we go.  If we started flat betting last week it would have been 11 per game +60 - 11 = +49. So this weeks balance would be 549.

Kelly Multiplier = 1

The below numbers correspond to the teams above.

Straight Bets

1    $42
2    $25
3    $17
4    $13
5    $13
6    $13
7    $11
8    $8
9    $8
10    $8
11    $6
12    $5
13    $5
14    $3

2 Team Parlays
1+2    $14
1+3    $9
2+3    $6
1+4    $7
2+4    $4
3+4    $3
1+5    $7
2+5    $4
3+5    $3
4+5    $2
1+6    $7
2+6    $4
3+6    $3
4+6    $2
5+6    $2
1+7    $6
2+7    $3
3+7    $2
4+7    $2
5+7    $2
6+7    $2
1+8    $5
2+8    $3
3+8    $2
4+8    $1
5+8    $1
6+8    $1
7+8    $1
1+9    $5
2+9    $3
3+9    $2
4+9    $1
5+9    $1
6+9    $1
7+9    $1
8+9    $1
1+10    $5
2+10    $3
3+10    $2
4+10    $1
5+10    $1
6+10    $1
7+10    $1
8+10    $1
9+10    $1
1+11    $3
2+11    $2
3+11    $1
4+11    $1
5+11    $1
6+11    $1
7+11    $1
8+11    $1
9+11    $1
10+11    $1
1+12    $2
2+12    $1
3+12    $1
4+12    $1
5+12    $1
6+12    $1
7+12    $1
1+13    $2
2+13    $1
3+13    $1
4+13    $1
5+13    $1
6+13    $1
7+13    $1
1+14    $1
2+14    $1
3+14    $1

3 Team Parlays
1+2+3    $3
1+2+4    $2
1+3+4    $2
2+3+4    $1
1+2+5    $2
1+3+5    $2
2+3+5    $1
1+4+5    $1
2+4+5    $1
1+2+6    $2
1+3+6    $2
2+3+6    $1
1+4+6    $1
2+4+6    $1
1+5+6    $1
2+5+6    $1
1+2+7    $2
1+3+7    $1
2+3+7    $1
1+4+7    $1
2+4+7    $1
1+5+7    $1
2+5+7    $1
1+6+7    $1
2+6+7    $1
1+2+8    $1
1+3+8    $1
2+3+8    $1
1+4+8    $1
1+5+8    $1
1+6+8    $1
1+7+8    $1
1+2+9    $1
1+3+9    $1
2+3+9    $1
1+4+9    $1
1+5+9    $1
1+6+9    $1
1+7+9    $1
1+2+10    $1
1+3+10    $1
2+3+10    $1
1+4+10    $1
1+5+10    $1
1+6+10    $1
1+7+10    $1
1+2+11    $1
1+3+11    $1
1+4+11    $1
1+5+11    $1
1+6+11    $1
1+2+12    $1
1+3+12    $1
1+2+13    $1
1+3+13    $1

Good Luck
Stats

Wow, thats alot of action statsational

OK what i see is YOUR poor money managent YOUR way over 5% of starting bankroll !

THE wiseguys and sharps instituted this eons ago books have been written about it !
But every year i see 1000's of people in forums online break that one important rule and bye week 7 they need to reaload thier accounts !

isnt it better to BET 1 or 2 games per week with a solid chance of going 2-0 every week  34 games at $25  a pop to start increasing the size as bankroll grows staying within 5%  rule DO the math for that  and see where you are after 17 weeks !

I'll even go as low as 65%  wins based on 2 games per week thats pathetic win %  for 34 games but use that %  it's 23 wins or just over 22 wins

34- 23 =  11     23 wins  11 loses

remeber as your bank roll grows YOUR size bet increases by 5%

ok lets run  a seson  week 1 2-0  + $50 

Bankroll is now $550  not enough to increase  yet 

week 2  1-1   - $5  bankroll $545  wekk 3 2-0  + 50  = $595  wk 4 2-0 $645  you can inacrese wagers to $30  now and still have 2.25 left over in profit wk 5  2-0  + 60$ $705  now you can increase wagers to $35 each week 6  1-1 - $5  $700  stay same amount it's risk $35 to win $31.50  week 7 2-0  $770 week 8 1-1 $765  week 9 2-0  $835  ok now i we have  8 weeks remaining and i only lost 3 games i siad we need to lose 11 games so we go 8-8  remaing of year  bets decreased in amounts after each loss less than $25 per game but you lost lets say $40 from $770  $270 profit BANG 65%

$500 divided by $770  = 65%  YOU made 35%  profit which is ludicrous when you put that up to stock market  % 
and Thats a bad win % 65%  going 2 games per week !

there are many small bettors in here very few bet $1000 per week or more as i know from real world people do not have that kind of money to gamble with !

@Dawn

1.  I am a firm believer in strong money management.  I work in the financial/trading industry and I understand what it takes to be successful from a money management standpoint.  If I were advising anyone on how to play these I would flat bet with 1-5% bets on each game depending on the percentage strength on the play.  You bring up a good point though and I hope those reading this are more following the games and not necessarily the 140 or so bets.  I am posting those for my benefit so I can track how it does.  I would not advise following exactly unless you want to do it with a small amount for you, whatever that amount is.

2. With the bets above this could easily blow up in one bad week.  That's how kelly works, especially at a 1 Multiplier. The swings can be very large, but if its winning it will win far more than flat betting.  That's always a big if and why most kelly strategies fail.  I have honestly never been a huge fan of kelly but with the percentages I came up with I thought it would be a good opportunity to try it out with kelly.


Thanks for the input Dawn that's what makes these forums productive.


@PT

I think we are going to see most games qualifying as plays each week.  The number of bets is of course out of control because of the kelly system.  As I said to Dawn I do not expect anyone to follow this exactly I just want to see how it does.  I may switch to just using the kelly for straight bets and bagging the parlays.  We will see.  It's a lot of work to track.

You guys inevitably will play the games how you see best fit.  Hopefully I can continue to produce winning results that will profit the different money management strategies.

Would you guys rather I run this as a flat betting system thread?

Statsational NO problem i made a post called THE absoulte Wiseguys MM system that busts Vegas 

go read it i used 5%  starting bank of $1000
 5 games per week with win rate of 65%

Dawn I read it, thank you.  If you took my top 5 games last week you would have gone 4-1.  Using your 1000 bank roll to start that would have you at 1145 this week betting 57.25 on each game.  I like the discipline.  Its not a bad way to go about it at all.

BOL

Hey Statsational,