Posted:
#76
This is a pretty nice system you have going here, I think i will follow you all year and see how it does....Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing!
0
Statsationals NFL Picks With Kelly
Posted:
#81
NFL Week 3 Results
8-3 72.72% for the week
23-8-1 74.19% for the season
500 Starting Bankroll
632.50 New Bankroll +26.5%
Picks
1. Jacksonville +3.5.............64%
2. San Francisco +2.5..........62%
3. Baltimore -3.5..................61%
4. Green Bay -3.5.................61%
5. Atlanta +1.5......................59%
6. Houston +4.......................56%
7. Kansas City +14.5.............55%
8. Washington +3.5.................55%
9. Oakland +3......................55%
10. Minnesota +3.5...............54%
11. NY Giants +9................54%
Pretty nice way to finish up the week. Not thrilled with losing the top play two weeks in a row but that is going to happen. We get a little unlucky with the Kelly as we lose out on a lot of winning parlays tonight. Hopefully next week we do a bit better. But tough to complain right now.
-Stats
8-3 72.72% for the week
23-8-1 74.19% for the season
500 Starting Bankroll
632.50 New Bankroll +26.5%
Picks
1. Jacksonville +3.5.............64%
2. San Francisco +2.5..........62%
3. Baltimore -3.5..................61%
4. Green Bay -3.5.................61%
5. Atlanta +1.5......................59%
6. Houston +4.......................56%
7. Kansas City +14.5.............55%
8. Washington +3.5.................55%
9. Oakland +3......................55%
10. Minnesota +3.5...............54%
11. NY Giants +9................54%
Pretty nice way to finish up the week. Not thrilled with losing the top play two weeks in a row but that is going to happen. We get a little unlucky with the Kelly as we lose out on a lot of winning parlays tonight. Hopefully next week we do a bit better. But tough to complain right now.
-Stats
0
Posted:
#87
All
I am still working on this weeks games. I should be done by tomorrow the latest. I just wanted to go over a few things, since we have some newcomers who may or may not have read through the entire thread.
The purpose, for me, of this thread was to see how the Kelly Criterion performed with the system I have developed. Kelly works extremely well if your probability of winning is accurate. If I were getting paid +110 on a coin flip then that is a game I would want to play over and over again. Obviously I have an even money shot of hitting heads or tails but my payout is better than even money. Now I would not risk my entire bank roll on one flip, even though I have an advantage. In one flip I could easily lose. In 10 flips I could easily lose. But as time goes on I am going to win money. The key is not to lose the bankroll before you can take advantage of your edge.
The danger in using Kelly with sports betting is how accurate can we really be in knowing our probabilities of success. So I started with a 500 bankroll on the thread and I am seeing just how well I can do using this money management technique. For the purpose of the thread I am playing a ton of parlays. Some people feel parlays are a losing proposition. They most certainly are if you are not picking at a high rate of success. The system has performed extremely well so far and as such we have made a profit on the parlay bets. We would actually be ahead of flat betting if we were able to parlay the Washington game Monday night before the weekend. We were not able to due to the game being OTB. What I like about that is that we get a chance to run this in a real life scenario. Often when you back test in sports betting or in trading you find that you are working in a vacuum. No curve balls get thrown at you. When you implement something live things don't always run as smooth. So I like that we can test in a live environment here.
So in no way do I expect people to follow the bets to the T. Like I have said in the past, if you are a flat bettor than flat bet the games. That is what you are comfortable doing. If you want to play labby's with this by all means go for it. Please do not feel obligated to follow the Kelly Criterion. Some of you have told me you are taking a small amount out of your roll and following the bets exactly. That is not a bad idea.
At the end of the day we need to keep winning and that is what I continue to work on doing. 60% winners is always my goal every year and I have hit that number more often than not. I will continue to put the hours in to achieve my goal.
So thanks to those who got on board early on and welcome to those of you just finding us. The numbers are going to grow as we continue to win. Lets enjoy the ride.
-Stats
I am still working on this weeks games. I should be done by tomorrow the latest. I just wanted to go over a few things, since we have some newcomers who may or may not have read through the entire thread.
The purpose, for me, of this thread was to see how the Kelly Criterion performed with the system I have developed. Kelly works extremely well if your probability of winning is accurate. If I were getting paid +110 on a coin flip then that is a game I would want to play over and over again. Obviously I have an even money shot of hitting heads or tails but my payout is better than even money. Now I would not risk my entire bank roll on one flip, even though I have an advantage. In one flip I could easily lose. In 10 flips I could easily lose. But as time goes on I am going to win money. The key is not to lose the bankroll before you can take advantage of your edge.
The danger in using Kelly with sports betting is how accurate can we really be in knowing our probabilities of success. So I started with a 500 bankroll on the thread and I am seeing just how well I can do using this money management technique. For the purpose of the thread I am playing a ton of parlays. Some people feel parlays are a losing proposition. They most certainly are if you are not picking at a high rate of success. The system has performed extremely well so far and as such we have made a profit on the parlay bets. We would actually be ahead of flat betting if we were able to parlay the Washington game Monday night before the weekend. We were not able to due to the game being OTB. What I like about that is that we get a chance to run this in a real life scenario. Often when you back test in sports betting or in trading you find that you are working in a vacuum. No curve balls get thrown at you. When you implement something live things don't always run as smooth. So I like that we can test in a live environment here.
So in no way do I expect people to follow the bets to the T. Like I have said in the past, if you are a flat bettor than flat bet the games. That is what you are comfortable doing. If you want to play labby's with this by all means go for it. Please do not feel obligated to follow the Kelly Criterion. Some of you have told me you are taking a small amount out of your roll and following the bets exactly. That is not a bad idea.
At the end of the day we need to keep winning and that is what I continue to work on doing. 60% winners is always my goal every year and I have hit that number more often than not. I will continue to put the hours in to achieve my goal.
So thanks to those who got on board early on and welcome to those of you just finding us. The numbers are going to grow as we continue to win. Lets enjoy the ride.
-Stats
0
Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by nougat69:
great stuff statsational.I subscribe to two different newsletters (one of them focuses on systems which I prefer) and was gonna subscribe to a 3rd which also does systems.Think I'll follow you instead and save the $200.Best of luck this year and keep up the great work
great stuff statsational.I subscribe to two different newsletters (one of them focuses on systems which I prefer) and was gonna subscribe to a 3rd which also does systems.Think I'll follow you instead and save the $200.Best of luck this year and keep up the great work
Thanks man. Lets make some money together
0
Posted:
#90
NFL Week 4 Picks
23-8-1 74.19% for the season
500 Starting Bankroll
632.50 New Bankroll +26.5%
Picks
1. Tampa Bay -10......................64% (MNF)
2. New England -4.....................63%
3. Green Bay -13........................62%
4. Carolina +6.5.........................60%
5. St. Louis pk............................58%
6. Houston -4..............................58%
7. Tennessee +1.........................54%
8. Detroit +1.5.............................53%
9. Philadelphia OTB...................53%
10. Baltimore -3.5.......................53%
Markets are a bit slow today so I was able to finish the work a bit early and get the games posted so you can shop some lines. These are the lines I was able to get. Phi will most likely be -9 and you may get that at some places now. Once they come back on the board I will play them and use them in the parlays.
Here are the straight bet amounts correlating to the above numbers
Straight Bets
1 $58
2 $52
3 $46
4 $34
5 $24
6 $24
7 $6
8 $2
9 $2
10 $2
For all of the parlays please use the calculator from a previous post.
If anyone is using these games in a specific way and wants to share i.e. betting ML's on dogs, please post I think we would all like to hear it.
-Stats
23-8-1 74.19% for the season
500 Starting Bankroll
632.50 New Bankroll +26.5%
Picks
1. Tampa Bay -10......................64% (MNF)
2. New England -4.....................63%
3. Green Bay -13........................62%
4. Carolina +6.5.........................60%
5. St. Louis pk............................58%
6. Houston -4..............................58%
7. Tennessee +1.........................54%
8. Detroit +1.5.............................53%
9. Philadelphia OTB...................53%
10. Baltimore -3.5.......................53%
Markets are a bit slow today so I was able to finish the work a bit early and get the games posted so you can shop some lines. These are the lines I was able to get. Phi will most likely be -9 and you may get that at some places now. Once they come back on the board I will play them and use them in the parlays.
Here are the straight bet amounts correlating to the above numbers
Straight Bets
1 $58
2 $52
3 $46
4 $34
5 $24
6 $24
7 $6
8 $2
9 $2
10 $2
For all of the parlays please use the calculator from a previous post.
If anyone is using these games in a specific way and wants to share i.e. betting ML's on dogs, please post I think we would all like to hear it.
-Stats
0
Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by Statsational:
Wheel
Wash is still a play. Injuries tend to be overrated when it comes to handicapping because the injury is baked into the spread. I have run a lot of numbers on injuries, be it to the starting QB, RB, or just total injuries, and I can not find a worthwhile trend to follow.
-Stats
Wheel
Wash is still a play. Injuries tend to be overrated when it comes to handicapping because the injury is baked into the spread. I have run a lot of numbers on injuries, be it to the starting QB, RB, or just total injuries, and I can not find a worthwhile trend to follow.
-Stats
I have said this for years but some people just dont understand this.......good stuff in this thread, keep it rolling bro..................
0
Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by trendsetterSIA:
Great job stats. I have a question to ask you. Is straight bets working better than kelly or vise versa?.. Thanks you and looking forward taling you again this week.
It is really close right now. We would be ahead a bit more using the kelly had the Washington game Monday been on the board before the Sunday games. Because it was not we lost out on a lot of winning parlays. Also the PHI Sunday night game would have been over a $200 swing, maybe even $300 had Vick not gotten hurt. But those things happen and we will get lucky on a few along the way as well. That one hurt because it was the biggest play of the week. If we start hitting the top games more than the bottom ones the kelly will help us otherwise flat betting is going to win out. Lets hit the top 4 this week and really get rolling.
0
Posted:
#98
Picks
1. Tampa Bay -10......................64% (MNF)
2. New England -4.....................63%
3. Green Bay -13........................62%
4. Carolina +6.5.........................60%
5. St. Louis pk............................58%
6. Houston -4..............................58%
7. Tennessee +1.........................54%
8. Detroit +1.5.............................53%
9. Philadelphia -9...................53%
10. Baltimore -3.5.......................53%
As expected the Philly line is on the board and is -9. Straight bets and parlays are all working. Some lines have moved in our favor since I posted the plays so you may be getting better lines than I did above.
1. Tampa Bay -10......................64% (MNF)
2. New England -4.....................63%
3. Green Bay -13........................62%
4. Carolina +6.5.........................60%
5. St. Louis pk............................58%
6. Houston -4..............................58%
7. Tennessee +1.........................54%
8. Detroit +1.5.............................53%
9. Philadelphia -9...................53%
10. Baltimore -3.5.......................53%
As expected the Philly line is on the board and is -9. Straight bets and parlays are all working. Some lines have moved in our favor since I posted the plays so you may be getting better lines than I did above.
0
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