
Ok, here it is.
There is only one eater to back in this contest, period.
It is Joey Chestnut. Is that earth shattering news? No. But it is news to some to help them profit so I am providing it.
He will win and likely will set a world record while doing it.
There is only one man who can challenge him. It's not Matt Stonie (who is a world class competitive eater but he won't here).
it is Carmen Cincotti. He ate 62 dogs last year. He may eat a few more this year or he may go under that total.
He was at Dutch Wonderland in Pennsylvania in early June 2018 at a qualifier and at 50 dogs in 10 minutes. If you are trying to beat Chestnut, that's not gonna cut it. Admittedly, Cincotti does not go all out in these qualifiers but 50, even 'dogging' it (Hold your applause, I'm here all night!), compared to Chestnut's 72 winning total last year is not a threat end of story.
So close the book on WHO is winning the contest. It will be Chestnut.
Now to the man of the hour and the moneymaking bets:
Chestnut.
I have him at -500 at Betonline and he's gone from -375 to -750 on 5 Dimes. 5 Dimes allows unlimited bets with line adjustment. Betonline has a cap of a measly $100 if you stagger your bets (pathetic). Anyhow, $100 is $100 at the better odds. And it is FREE MONEY. There is no world class competitive eater that is better to back even at a "Justify at the Belmont" price.
Chestnut to win for $500 to win $100.
Now onto over/under dogs totals.
Right now, OVER 68.5 total dogs eaten by ANYONE is -175 on BetOnline and -350 on 5 Dimes.
This bet will go OVER.
How do we know?
The past two contests Chestnut has won with the following totals:
70 in 2016 and 72 in 2017.
Good winning totals for this bet.
Morever, Chestnut at a world record 73 dogs in 2016 at a qualifier:
https://www.foodbeast.com/news/chestnut-73-practice/
Good sign for our bet.
Moreover, Chestnut at 72 dogs at this years qualifier:
https://www.thereporter.com/article/NG/20180616/NEWS/180619902
Good sign for the over.
And finally, Chestnut is on tape, simulating the contest in the background eating 77 dogs in ten minutes here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoNNaGa7xRc
GREAT sign for the over.
You want to see a great attitude to put your money on?
After eating a world record 77 dogs, admittedly in practice, he says:
"I slowed down a lot. I definitely have room for improvement." at 11:35.
Wow. Yes, I'll back that guy!
Now to your question D, we don't have to go over under 72.5 dogs. That is too risky. And yes it was super close last year at 72 dogs but yes he definitely can surpass that number:
The money maker here is OVER 70.5 dogs at -135. All the evidence is right here Chestnut will settle for no less than 70 and will go to break the record of 72. 71 is the sweet spot bet is right at the line at this price where we can back him.
I expect Cincotti (or some unknown like Cincotti was) to push Joey (Which is a good thing!) so he'll shoot for 71 minimum and look to get to 73 and break the contest record.
So the three bets are:
Chestnut to win -500
$500 to win $100
Anyone to eat OVER 68.5 dogs -175 BetOnline
$175 to win $100
Anyone to eat OVER 70.5 dogs -135 5 Dimes
$270 to win $200
$400 is $400! We all can use it and build on it elsewhere...You just have to open your mind that this is a bettable event.