Posted:
#101
@Getty3
You have inspired me to visit the Amish Market today. 
CD Newsletter Week 9
Posted:
#103
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:
Europa Conference L FCSB v West Ham Sandwich Ham to win & O2.5 (2.30) EnEffElRaiders -1.5Packers -3.5Dolphins -5 All at 1.90 Seahawks to win (2.10) Europe 6-14 (-7.60)America 22-10 (+12.085)
Europa Conference L FCSB v West Ham Sandwich Ham to win & O2.5 (2.30) EnEffElRaiders -1.5Packers -3.5Dolphins -5 All at 1.90 Seahawks to win (2.10) Europe 6-14 (-7.60)America 22-10 (+12.085)
French National Stade Briochin v FC Bastia O2.5 (2.07)
Europe 7-14 (-6.30)
America 22-10 (+12.085)
Posted:
#105
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Week 10 look ahead: Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00 Gmen off bye, Saquon and Danny Dimes will have fresh legs vs the worst run D in this universe. Texans play tonight, and players tend to get hurt on tnf more than any other day. I think they do put in some extra effort vs Philly tonight as it is prime time. Next week they hit the road for a non conference game of irrelevance.
Week 10 look ahead: Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00 Gmen off bye, Saquon and Danny Dimes will have fresh legs vs the worst run D in this universe. Texans play tonight, and players tend to get hurt on tnf more than any other day. I think they do put in some extra effort vs Philly tonight as it is prime time. Next week they hit the road for a non conference game of irrelevance.
Line is off at my 3 books. I can't find any injury news from the Texans or Giants. Anyone hear anything?
Posted:
#106
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Week 10 look ahead: Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00 Gmen off bye, Saquon and Danny Dimes will have fresh legs vs the worst run D in this universe. Texans play tonight, and players tend to get hurt on tnf more than any other day. I think they do put in some extra effort vs Philly tonight as it is prime time. Next week they hit the road for a non conference game of irrelevance. Line is off at my 3 books. I can't find any injury news from the Texans or Giants. Anyone hear anything?
Don't sweat it my dude. Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Week 10 look ahead: Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00 Gmen off bye, Saquon and Danny Dimes will have fresh legs vs the worst run D in this universe. Texans play tonight, and players tend to get hurt on tnf more than any other day. I think they do put in some extra effort vs Philly tonight as it is prime time. Next week they hit the road for a non conference game of irrelevance. Line is off at my 3 books. I can't find any injury news from the Texans or Giants. Anyone hear anything?
FD has it at -5' -115
Posted:
#111
36-31-2 (+8.95)
Lions +3.5(-110) *2.50/2.27
ML(+260) *.50/.80
Bears +3.5(-105) *2.10/2.00
ML(+165) *50/.83
Commanders +3.5(-115) *1.15/1.00
ML(+158) *.25/.40
Seahawks 1H ML(+110) *1.00/1.10
Texans 1Q +3(+107) *1.00/1.07 (Win)
Texans 1Q ML(+260) *.25/.65 (Push)
Bengals -7(-115) *1.15/1.00
The Bengals last 4 games had em otr in 3 of em. See what they did to Atlanta, a team ranked 8 spots better than Carolina by dvoa.
This line is pure recency bias as the Bengals got smashed by the Browns on prime time. I was on the Browns in that one, in the ultimate of let down spots for Cinci.
On the field, the Bengals "should have" tried to run the ball vs the Browns as it's a major weakness. Instead the Bengals did what they are good at, and that's to pass. It didn't work. I believe that the Bengals will do the same vs Carolina, but this time it's the right move as Carolina is terrible vs the pass.
Burrow is a top 5 qb, PJ Walker is all bells n whistles at this point, and going vs a stout Bengals pass defense.
Most folks who were on Cinci vs Cleveland didn't think that Jamar Chase would be a big loss. After the result, they are probably questioning his importance at the least.
It's "get right" time for Cincinnati.
Posted:
#114
36-31-2 (+8.95)
Lions +3.5(-110) *2.50/2.27
ML(+260) *.50/.80
Bears +3.5(-105) *2.10/2.00
ML(+165) *50/.83
Commanders +3.5(-115) *1.15/1.00
ML(+158) *.25/.40
Seahawks 1H ML(+110) *1.00/1.10
Texans 1Q +3(+107) *1.00/1.07 (Win)
Texans 1Q ML(+260) *.25/.65 (Push)
Bengals -7(-115) *1.15/1.00
Buff@NYJ U46(-110) *1.75/1.59
I'm not huge on totals, and wasn't paying much attention to the 47.5 opener when BigD started the thread, so scaling back some cause I almost put 3 units on this. I agree in the movement, and still think that it's way too high where it is now.
What am I missing here, other than Buffalo is the best team in the nfl and blows teams out? The perception is not conducive to what the #'s are showing me. Blow outs don't just mean that games are a boat race, the Bills shut teams down with their defense.
The Bills games have gone 1-6 in going over the total of 46 this year, average score 43.
The Jets games have gone 2-6 in going over the total of 46 this year, average score of 41.87.
Interesting caveat in the 2 games that did soar over, week 2 vs Cleveland hit 61 in that miracle Joe Flacco game where 30 pts were scored in the 4th quarter. Cleveland is ranked #27 per dvoa on defense. Week 5 the total hit 57 vs Miami who is #25.
The Bills are #4 on defense, and the Jets are #8, both per dvoa.
Both these teams hang their hat on defense, no matter what you think of the Bills and Josh Allen, they are great no doubt. But how much can 1 team score vs a stout D who is also a division rival, and otr?
Are we worried about the Jets without Breece Hall and a well below average qb in Zach Wilson? No chance. On top of that, Flacco has been demoted to 3rd string for some reason, leaving only Mike White behind Wilson.
If we look at history, since 2019 in 6 games, the final scores of both teams went like this:
37, 52, 28, 44, 19, 33
Posted:
#121
36-31-2 (+8.95)
Lions +3.5(-110) *2.50/2.27
ML(+260) *.50/.80
Bears +3.5(-105) *2.10/2.00
ML(+165) *50/.83
Commanders +3.5(-115) *1.15/1.00
ML(+158) *.25/.40
Seahawks 1H ML(+110) *1.00/1.10
Texans 1Q +3(+107) *1.00/1.07 (Win)
Texans 1Q ML(+260) *.25/.65 (Push)
Bengals -7(-115) *1.15/1.00
Buff@NYJ U46(-110) *1.75/1.59
Pats 1H -3(-105) *2.10/2.00
In post #62 I played the Pats. Must of messed up a cut n paste along the way. Ton of $ out there, and may add to Washington and buy out of Lions ML...
Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
Heading for Massachusetts tomorrow for 4 days (family). I've played these and will stand by them: Texans (TNF) +13.5 Redskins +3 Jags/Raiders Over 47 Seadorks/Cardinals Under 50 Tampa -3 Best of luck to everyone
Heading for Massachusetts tomorrow for 4 days (family). I've played these and will stand by them: Texans (TNF) +13.5 Redskins +3 Jags/Raiders Over 47 Seadorks/Cardinals Under 50 Tampa -3 Best of luck to everyone
Getty- In Massachusetts until after Thanksgiving. Just curious, if you don't mind my asking. Where in Mass. are you ? Good luck with your plays today.
Posted:
#124
36-31-2 (+8.95)
Lions +3.5(-110) *2.50/2.27
ML(+260) *.50/.80
Bears +3.5(-105) *2.10/2.00
ML(+165) *50/.83
Commanders +3.5(-115) *1.15/1.00
ML(+158) *.25/.40
Seahawks 1H ML(+110) *1.00/1.10
Texans 1Q +3(+107) *1.00/1.07 (Win)
Texans 1Q ML(+260) *.25/.65 (Push)
Bengals -7(-115) *1.15/1.00
Buff@NYJ U46(-110) *1.75/1.59
Pats 1H -3(-105) *2.10/2.00
Commanders +3(+100) *1.00
Added 1 unit to Washington for free juice, if it pushes so be it. That's it, my eyes are starting to bleed from the screen.
Good Luck today everyone 
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