CD Newsletter Week 9

@Getty3

 I never thought of it like this, playing chalk heavier at mid season, but it does make sense, and I think last week was the first week all year that I took more chalk than dogs, so you may be on to something.  I kinda like a lotta chalk this week too.  

Already was leaning Fins and Ravens, more so now post trades......

A Wild Card Rewards Card to the Hard Rock Casino with a pre paid 100K credit. The Jaguars way overpaid for Chris Kirk and they're probably doing the same here with Ridley. Use some of that 1st round draft equity on a WR rather than letting it get to bringing in other team's problems at the position. Situational Unawareness 

Draft offense, pay for defense. It's quite simple and effective.

I don't know about our gm yet, unfortunately only time will tell. Still sad about Roquon, but it is what it is I guess.

The Houston Texans now have only 1 win through the first 7 games.

For the 3rd straight year.

Let that sink in.

Gotta be the ultimate buy low spot ay? And the Eagles are undefeated with a bye on deck...the ultimate sell high spot?

We can only bet this one way 

Jags will give up no more than a 2nd and a 5th over the next 2 years. Very incentive laden deal. 

Just for fun look up the Jags 2020 draft. A bounty of draft equity with 12 picks, 7 of them in the first 4 rounds including 2 first rounders. They wound up with absolutely...nothing. Incompetence x 2. 

@BIGDTITLE

Seeing...

Panthers +7(+100), Bengals -7(-120) 

O/U 42.5, -110 both sides

The books are saying "did you see the Bengals get smoked on MNF? Well take them now expensive because the hook is coming"

The Falcons blew the cover 3 different times vs Panthers. The Panthers blew the win 3 different times. Coming off an OT game otr vs division, the Panthers should face wrath from the Bengals, who need to bounce back hard and prove that they can play without Chase.

Not sure I want any part of this game.

another great ink job.......Ravens extra prep....good luck with  the Rooster....

look what chiefs had to give up for toney, who hasn’t done a damn thing. Third and a fifth. Like you mentioned in one of your threads in the mains, the league is shifting to passer friendly offense. Solid wr’s will soon be a premium, there’s a lot more to it than an rb. Tyreek set a precedent on what it’s gonna cost to obtain a top tier wr. I wouldn’t doubt if more chase claypool like trade deals come around. I was shocked at first about what we gave up, but honestly it doesn’t surprise me now

36-31-2 (+8.95)

Week 8: 4-4 (-0.09)

Lions +3.5(-110) *2.50/2.27

ML(+260) *.50/.80

Bears +3.5(-105) *2.10/2.00

ML(+165) *50/.83

Plays above are look ahead lines I bet, as you guys know. Lost on the Bears value, got the hook with the Lions.

Looking back at every week, I only lost 2 out of 8 weeks of betting, and last week was only a $9 loss. I must be doing something right, as each week it feels like this is getting maddening. 

At BigD, Dallas is a cool city. Real nice people. The Cowboys fans were awesome, no one really talked shit. At the tailgate they were welcoming as can be. Free beers n food the whole time and we didn't even have to ask.

I didn't feel like we were in a desert at any point. And the stereotypical notion of big boots, cowboy hats, big ass trucks, and good ole boys that I had in my head going in(as I've never visited the state), just wasn't there.

Awesome stadium in Arlington 

@OlDirtyBaztid

 That thread was this one.

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/a-changing-of-the-guard-in-the-nfl-103677675

I didn't say that the league is changing to a passer friendly offense. That all ready happened a few years ago.

My main point was that defenses have been built to combat those passing offensive for some time now. So the traditional passing O's with statue qb's are the ones struggling now.

The teams who run a bunch, and have a dual threat qb are currently thriving. 

So you wore your assless chaps for nothing?

@undermysac

 I agree with the sudden shift to the run first philosophy. 18 of the league's teams are passing below expected pass rate. Most teams are adopting a run first/pass when necessary mindset. It's cyclical but for now the mobile QB with a RB is the trend. Hate to say it but Harbaugh in Baltimore was the first to devise an offense around his QB.

Our man Biscuit was the first to respond to the thread with one word, "cycle".

Agree about Harbaugh 

Brian Dabol took a chance as well with Buffalo, now with the Giants. 

If I were the Saints, I'd be using more Tasom Hill. Unless they all ready know that his passing is really that bad. Feels like with him and Kamara on the field in a passing situation would be hard to relegate.

And Nash exit stage right (or is it left?).

Nets -1.5 or -2 looks sooooo trappy.

@BWS77

 Fwiw, I was in Cleveland last year and they had the best tailgate party I've ever been to.

The city was cleaner than Chicago, and the people were pretty similar to Chicago.

Minus the assless chaps

Cleveland tailgate = drink booze out of brown paper bag, enter stadium and put bag over head

Brandin Cooks, who was surprisingly not traded by the Texans today, tweeted this:

"Don’t take a man’s kindness for granted. Covered for the lies for too long those days are done. Crossed the line with playing with my career"

Seems like Mr Cooks is not very happy about still being a member of the Houston team

Great write ups and has led to great conversation. Did Fridays Breeders Cup handicapping today less the sprint. 5 2yr old races for millions. All are derby Dreaming!! Great time to be alive  . ps: Been with Pinnacle for 7.5 yrs exclusive. Totally botched the move over as it is now a pure Canadian site and moving my account over was a nightmare. As in someone needs to get fired over this shit transition. Just my thoughts.

[At BigD, Dallas is a cool city. Real nice people. The Cowboys fans were awesome, no one really talked shit. At the tailgate they were welcoming as can be. Free beers n food the whole time and we didn't even have to ask. I didn't feel like we were in a desert at any point. And the stereotypical notion of big boots, cowboy hats, big ass trucks, and good ole boys that I had in my head going in(as I've never visited the state), just wasn't there. Awesome stadium in Arlington[/Quote]

You drive 20 miles in just about any direction from that metroplex area and you will see plenty of that

You guys should've hit this cowboy bar joint called Red River while you were there.  If I was thinking I would've mentioned that.  That place is something out of a movie for sure.  Kind of the type of place that is worth stopping at just for the experience while you are in Texas.  I went there once and was literally the only person with sneakers on.  Mechanical bull, dancing in a big circle, dudes throwing little cowgirls up in the air like they're on a dancing talent show......I was amazed at that place.  

I rode the mechanical bull when I was kinda hammered......Bull 1 - JDD 0

been telling wreck and Eddie that for years but ill let them keep thinking we all carry and dip Copenhagen and marry our cousins   

@BIGDTITLE

Check out this Puscifer remix stuff. Maynard is on another level. 

https://puscifertv.com/pages/v-is-for-versatile/219840b7-a839-434a-b2a2-145ea0f60650

@undermysac

I'm not buying Clemson as the 4th best team in CFB. 

What if the cousin is hot?