CD Newsletter Week 2

All lines will be from Betonline

TNF

Vikings @ Eagles -7 (48.5)

We are so blessed to have the first of the Vikings 5 prime time games start this week. Since they went 14-3 last year, they must be a great team right? Well if they were they wouldn't of lost to Baker Mayfield at home last week, and wouldn't of opened +7.5 this week.

The Eagles barely squeeked out a cover vs the Pats. The Pats converted a 2pt conversion but were called for holding. The ensuing re try failed. Anyone with the Pats opener of +5 pushed, anyone after with 4.5, 4, and 3.5 lost. The Eagles are banged up, probably why the line went down. The juice is suggesting a move to 6.5.

I don't want any part of this game. CD always told us to stay away from TNF, and we should.

LAC -3 @ Titans (45)

This one opened 3.5, someone took the hook off the Titans. 

I think they looked terrible. They need a new QB, Tannehill looks long in the tooth. Why did DeAndre Hopkins come here? 

So the Chargers defense got shredded by the aerial force of the Dolphins. Fuck are they fast and get open quick. Do the Titans have a qb and wr combo like that? Not even close.

I don't know what to think, nor do I even want to look into this matchup. The Chargers have a dope offense, should be able to score. They also have a super analytical coach. Vrabel went for a fg last week to go down by 1 with about 2 minutes left instead of going for the win.

Yes CD was wary of TNF. If they ever open up a Gambling Hall of Fame in Winnabucka N.D. his bust should greet us at the door. 

Bears @ Buccaneers -3 (41)

Look ahead was Bears -1. You guys know how I feel, I'll post my plays after I get through this.

If you're not a fan of betting on a 4 pt value swing after a week 1 over reaction, then maybe you shouldn't be a betting at all.

When's the last time that Baker Mayfield put together quality b2b starts? He had 173 passing yards, 2 td's, no pics. The CD newsletter crew was a fond follower of this guy when he was on the Browns. Which reminds me, where is BWS?

Listen, the Bears looked like shit. I could get into everything they did and didn't do, their roster and coaching...but don't feel like repeating myself about "my" team.

In week 3 they go to face Mahomes in KC. If they start the season going 0-2 vs Love and Mayfield, the season is fucking over before the plane lands in KC. This is the perfect reverse sandwich spot. They came off a shitty loss, the Bucs beat an over rated Vikings team, the betting line blows up, and now find themselves in a proverbial "must win".

If anyone cares, I will be in KC for that game. Can't wait to meet my crew who does a destination game every year. And the BBQ better be good. I'll be Monte level drunk. 

KC -3 @ Jaguars (51)

Mahomes vs Trevor, in Trevor's house. The Getty's look incredibly talented. They have scouted well and aquired good football players. Calvin Ridley was a steal in hindsight. He has the fire, the polar opposite of Chase Claypool. 

I really want to bet them as home dogs here, it has to be the sharp side right? I'm just not sure. The Chiefs on 10 days rest, essentially extra game planning for Andy Reid coming off a loss. They also will get a big boost with Chris Jones ending his hold out, he's one of the best DT's in the league. Kelce is still questionable. He's a key cog for their offense. The drops that Kadarius Toney had vs the Lions were horrendous. 

I want to watch this game more than I want to put $ on it. If I were to bet AND watch it, I feel like I'd have a minimum 6 heart attacks, by halftime .

Colts -1 @ Texans (39.5)

Juice seems to suggest this line moving to 1.5. Two rookie QB's going at it, both teams are 0-1, divisional game. 

I'm on the Texans ML, kind of forgot the reasons why...guess I'll paste what I wrote later.

If anyone else wants to dive into this mesmerizing matchup, feel free.

Seahawks @ Lions -6 (47)

I took the Lions at -3 on the look ahead line, but I wouldn't at 6. The total also crashed from 51 to 47. That's rare to see the line on the fav go up with the total drop like it did.

This is a revenge game for the Lions. Last year they had a barn burner high scoring affair where there was zero defense played. 48-45. It was early in the year before the Lions went on their 8-2 run to close the year. Like the Chiefs, the Lions are on 10 days rest.

Was Geno a one hit wonder last year? I'm kinda thinking that. Losing to the Rams at home is an auspicious start, especially in a division with the 49ers.

Ravens @ Bengals -3.5 (46.5)

This game is interesting on many levels.

First off, you have to think to yourself "how the fuck are the Bengals -3.5?" Especially when Burrow had only 82 yards and only 3 first downs. The Bengals had only 6 total first downs, scored only 3 points,  and held the ball for 24 minutes. 

The book is talking here, just daring anyone to take the Ravens +3.5.

Despite winning 25-9 at home vs the Texans and a rookie qb, Lamar looked like shit.

1 pic, no td's, 2 fumbles, 4 sacks. The Ravens brought in a new OC in Todd Monken to implement a new "passing" offense. This makes me think that perhaps all the Lamar hold out stuff had something to do with this hire. I mean, is it a secret that Lamar's strength has never been throwing the ball from the pocket?

Vs the Texans, here are his #"s while under pressure: 2-7, 14 yards, int, 4 sacks

I can't let my wang hang out this early in the season by betting on the Bengals -3.5, but I know it's them or nothing. 

The Ravens have injury issues with their LT and Center. They also lost JK Dobbins for the year.

I have placed a rather large wager on the under. With some advisement and research of my own. Burrow still ain't right. He was described as limping a bit, grabbing and stretching during the Browns game. Calf issues are a big deal. Aaron Rodgers had a calf issue in the off season and it lingered in pre season...boom goes the Achilles. 

I fully expect Shrimp to tell us about Mark Andrews and other injured Ravens.

Raiders @ Bills -9.5 (47)

C'mon really? 9.5? The Raiders are the sole 1-0 team in the afc west? The Bills lost to an Aaron Rodgerless Jets? 

It looks like the Raiders aren't all that bad. They were definitely under rated by the market this year. Jimmy G brings stability. As an underdog in his career he's been ridiculous, 16-7 su. 18-5 ats.

Here's an interesting coaching stat. Josh McDaniels was the Pats OC for quite some time, and has history vs McDermott's Bills.

7-4 su, with the offense averaging 21 ppg.

I know that this isn't apples to apples, but let's say that the Raiders post 21 on Sunday, that's not unrealistic. The Bills would have to score 31 to cover. The total sits at 47...

If some one just nudges me enough to put $100 on the Raiders, I probably would. But my senses are saying stay away.

Packers -1.5 @ Falcons (40.5)

The Falcons were -1.5 at open, the line has flopped. Did the Falcons do anything to deserve the line drop, I say no. Did the Packers do anything to change the line, I say yes.

The Packers looked buttoned up on Sunday. They were playing some damn good football. David Baktiari of the Packers scored the best blocking grade in the nfl week 1 according to pff. Love looked under control, and made good reads. All though, he wasn't under any pressure at all. Their star RB Aaron Jones pulled his hammy in the 4th quarter.

On defense, dudes this unit is for real. I'll go out on a limb and say that their secondary is the best in the nfl. Overall they aren't good as the Cowboys or Niners, but they are up there imo.

Desmond Ridder is a dink and doinker when it comes to passing. I don't see any way that he can go mid to deep on this secondary. I bet that the Falcons rely heavy on the run, as they might have the best RB duo in the nfl. They'll want to chew up clock and win t.o.p.

Defensively, I think they should at least "want" to get pressure on Jordan Love. Last week the Bears showed the entire league on how to NOT defend him. The Bears only blitzed twice. If the Falcons decide to blitz him often and don't get home, I'll tip my cap to the Packers o line. They might be a unit to recognize in the future if they indeed hold up in a loud dome.

And that's why I bet on the under in this matchup.

This is taking forever. I need a break, and a beer.

thx for posting these undermysac

Now for the afternoon slate:

49ers -8 @ LAR (44.5)

What can you say about McVay other than this dude is a damn good coach, and doing it with almost nothing roster wise. 

A healthy Matt Stafford seems to be a good Matt Stafford, with some young and upcoming talent around him.

The Niners looked like a well oiled machine vs the Steelers. They looked in mid season form in all phases. Brock Purdy's elbow is fine. McCaffrey is healthy to start the season, and he's at his most potent self right now. 

Getting 8 points at home vs division is almost always an auto bet on the dog. But I don't want to mess with the Niners early as they are healthy and revving on high. Perhaps a team to fade after a few weeks in, where their inevitable injuries and lack of depth shows up. 

Giants -5.5 @ Cardinals (40)

This opened 4.5. I'm guessing sharp and public $ are/will be on the Giants. Any team that allows 40 points, scores 0 points, and are favored otr the following week can be bet only one way.

Were the Giants just the victims of the Cowboys "fuck off" parade? Yes, they're probably a lot better than they showed. 

But just like the Bengals -3.5, I'm not interested in showing my balls and betting an absurd favorite this early in the season just because the book is telling me too.

The Cardinals have a nobody at QB, but Danny Dimes isn't exactly an elite QB himself.

Easy pass for me.

Jets @ Cowboys -9.5 (39.5)

4 snaps as a Jet, and just like that Aaron Rodgers career is over. Bummer. I never liked the guy but kind of wanted to see him lead the Jets to something good.

So the look ahead was Dallas -3. Arod went down. Re opened 8.5, now 9.5. The books said that he was worth 5.5 points...I think they over shot his worth by .5 to 1 points in anticipation of Dallas $. So as you can see the public doesn't know shit about line value or player worth, they bet Dallas anyway. 

The Value is on the Jets believe it or not. With a total of 39.5, those points are worth a little more.

But, like a few above assessments I will pass again. Dallas is completely capable of posting a shut out, or at least keeping them under 13 or so. Bryce Hall was an instant spark plug coming off injury. Dalvin Cook looks like a solid #2. Gotta think they try to establish the run to keep Zach Wilson from getting decapitated. 

The Jets D looked outstanding vs the Bills. We'll see how the Cowboys with Brian Shottenheimer attack it. If bad Dak shows up, this sucker stays under. 

Kind of want to watch this game, it should be a hard hitting defensive battle. I could see both qb's doing stupid shit.

Commanders @ Broncos -3.5 (38)

Lowest total on the board.

The Commanders nearly lost to the Cardinals. They suck. We should bet on Ron Rivera first coach fired this year. I bet that happens, someone find the odds.

Just thinking about the Broncos and Sean Payton made me realize "fuck this game"

On to the next...

SNF

Dolphins -2 @ Patriots (46.5)

The public likes offense. They like shiny fast sports cars. That's what the Dolphins are. Fast n quick wide receivers that are constantly open. Tua is making his reads quickly and throwing darts. #1 offense by dvoa.

Just -2...only have to win by a fg. Looks easy.

I haven't heard one pundit or podcaster mention that their defense gave up 34 points with 234 rush yards to go with it. Like that's not a problem? They're #31 on defense by dvoa.

I'm thinking that Belichick turns this into one of his types of games. He will exploit that run defense. 

The Pats offense is #14 by dvoa. The new OC is an upgrade over Patricia. They had a tough opponent defensively in the Eagles. I think that they'll be able to score here, and in the style that they want to.

The Dolphins start their year by traveling to LA. Then going back home for a practice week. Then off to NE. Quite the hike in just a week.

I think I'll be on the Pats, but going to wait out the line. Maybe it gets to 3 but I doubt it. Maybe I'll take a cheap +2.5 and/or ML.

MNF Double Header:

Saints -3 @ Panthers (40)

Carr looks like he's still not accustomed to his new team. He's a hard qb to peg. In his career he hasn't been great, he hasn't been bad, kind of a middle of the road guy.

Tough to back him as a fav otr in division. But the opposition isn't exactly scary with a rookie qb at the helm.

This game is rather uninteresting. The # and total seem to be exactly right.

Browns -2 @ Steelers (39.5)

I'm on the Steelers ML. You have to make this bet every time. Tomlin off an embarrassing loss at home with a chance to redeem himself at home again, and on prime time. I believe that I heard that the Steelers are 20-2 su on prime time in the Tomlin era. I'm not 100% sure, if someone can check on that.

How good were the Browns last week vs Burrow on one leg? Is DeSean Watson back to form? 16/29 154 yards, 1 td, 1 int, 3 sacks, 1 fumble.

That's all I got. Will post record and bets later.

Good Luck 

Have the same thoughts on a few ...against a few ....nice work . Week 2 is always an overeaction kinda week where teams are polar oppos. Who the fuck knows . Have you checked your email or DMs recently . 

Nice work sac.   You don’t realize how exhausting writing all that shit is until you’re about 5-6 games in.   Lol.     

I really am perplexed by this lions hawks move.  I have to believe it slowly creeps back higher closer to kick so if anyone likes the over bet it now 

You are in mid season form Hoss.  Splendid 

YTD 1-5 (-3.35)

Lions -3(-110) *1.10/1.00

Steelers ML(+110) *1.00/1.10

GB@ATL U40.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Texans ML(even) *1.00

Bears +3(-108) *2.00/1.85

Bears ML(+140) *.50/.70

Ravens@Bengals U46.5(-110) *2.00/1.82

U forgot Williams starting safety....

Crap i liked the Bears also but they got the sucker juiced.Excellent read on Pack/Atl. Lets pretend for the sake of argument that it's a close game and in the end who do you trust more to make a play Ridder or Love.If the Pack can hold them to no more than 100 - 110 on the ground the Pack should prevail. jmo

If Mac Jones can go 35/54 316 yds 3td's 1int would it not be possible for Kirk Cousins to have some success against Philly.(thinking man emoticon)

He might have some success, might not. His prime time night record is very poor. The Vikings racked up the yards vs the Bucs but 3 turnovers did them in.

YTD for me    1-3  -.05u        hitting the big play on the Raidazz

long shot parlay that almost hit and Tannehill missing wide open Okonkwo but those be the breaks

Locked already which looks like an instant loser

Lions Hawks o50.5

5u

I will be on both QBs to throw a pick in Jets Dallas game for equal units depending on the juice   

@BIGDTITLE

 I like that prop, even parlaying it 

No. He's never been any kind of 'wonder'.

midseason form 

YTD 1-5 (-3.35)

Lions -3(-110) *1.10/1.00

Steelers ML(+110) *1.00/1.10

GB@ATL U40.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Texans ML(even) *1.00

Bears +3(-108) *2.00/1.85

Bears ML(+140) *.50/.70

Ravens@Bengals U46.5(-110) *2.00/1.82

Almost forgot...

GAME OF YEAR

Week 5: 10/8/23 vs the Bills

Jaguars +3(-110) *2.50/2.27

Jaguars ML(+135) *1.50/2.03

Wishing I put more on this in hindsight. Not seeing any look ahead lines for this game anywhere. Bovada has the week 4 London game up.