CD Newsletter Week 15

No, before the news money came in on the Jets.

Zach Wilson didn't even dress the last 2 games. What a mess of a game to bet. I think the Lions is a no Brainerd even at -1.5.

But it stinks so bad

We need to get our collective noggins together on the Giants next 2 games, as one line is most definitely wrong.

W15 Giants +4.5 @ Washington 

W16 Giants +4.5 @ Minnesota 

Cmon, how?

The Vikings hfa is better than Washington's.

I know that we're sour on the Vikings but to say Washington is slightly better than them is absurd 

@undermysac

 I do not trust the giants against anyone.  My gut says the league has more than enough film on how to make a one dimensional team even more one dimensional.

Throw out the Houston game, and humor me here:

9 for 28 yds.........18 for 63........11 for 39......15 for 22........20 for 53.      

Those are Saquons numbers in 5 of the last 6 games.  The Houston game, the one I asked to be thrown out, they ran him 35 times for 152 yards. lol

A lot of those other games Saquon was not even the leading rusher on the team.  Either way, 6 games, 1-4-1.  I am still pissed off that I missed the cover on the Houston game by a hair.  Houston was the right side.  The Giants are not over a TD better than them.  

Nobody likes laying 4.5 or 5 points with a QB that is mistake prone sometimes, but the Commies are 6-1-1 last 7 SU and ATS.  It is Commies or pass for me here.  My best angle is to wait for a live line.  If the Giants can go up by 3 or 7 early, I fire on Commies, no doubt.  They are probably getting Chase Young and St. Juste back for this game also.  I will probably lay off pre-flop, aside from the Commies being in a 10 and 13 point teaser I placed earlier getting +5.5 and +8.5.

They have more than enough talent on D to create a similar situation for the Giants as we have seen over the last 6 games.  Plus they just played each other.  The Commies have gotten healthier since then, on D.

@JDD

 I'm gonna fire on Washington soon, shopping for the best line.

These bastards tied 2 weeks ago. Washington bye week afterwards, and have the same Giants again. That's essentially 3 weeks worth of film study and practice against one team.

I think the books know this, and I think that a lot of Giant backers are going to be disappointed. 

This is not a value bet on the line, rather one of those "the books are talking" lines.

Totally failed to paste the link when I posted this, redo:

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/lions-jared-goff-ben-johnson-offense-nfl-playoffs-2022/

Gints/Washington as has been pointed out is simply an eyeball test game and FedX field will be rocking like old times.

kind words sac 

I may be putting too many of my marbles on Washington, the stuff I'm finding is extraordinary. I just never got to capping it as I was never a fan of nfc east games.

Lions large...gotta.

Russel Wilson out. 

gf just told me Boys are close to signing OBJ.

oh my

If i didn't know better i'd swear i was receiving telepathic signals to bet the Cowboys. 

Dude I want to. The flu thing has me staying away. Someone dropped $ on the Jets before the qb change, and it wasn't the public.

Still may not matter.

Good Luck 

Believe me I’m fighting every urge to not drop a 20-30 unit bet on Detroit myself. 

stalking a live Xavier line as we speak. 
like Youngstown and Manhattan  

maybe Youngstown live. Don’t wanna lay 8-9. probably should lol

@undermysac

 What's weather in Jets game?? Big factor....goff an indoor qb

Whats Terrance steele pff rank and rush grade??

Pollard rush prop is insanely intriguing....he should get 10-14 carries unless jags lead most of the game 

Jet fan at my poker table is insisting that they switched back to Mike white and he got medical clearance. I can’t find it anywhere.

he swears lol. Sounds so sure of it I somewhat believe him. Says it was switched back to white like an hour ago. 

W L Weller and me just drank this teaser purty. 

Baltimore +8.5

Buffalo -1

but we could be Wong 

70-56-7 (+22.06)

Ravens +3(-110) *1.25/1.14

Ravens ML(+135) *.25/.34

Bears +8(-110) *2.25/2.05

Bears ML(+290) *.35/1.02

Falcons +4.5(-110) *2.50/2.27

Falcons ML(+175) *.50/.88

Titans +3.5(-115) *1.00/.87

Commanders -4.5(-109) *3.00/2.75

First fav on the card and I go ham...here goes nothing.

Two teams heading in opposite directions, and the situational spot couldn't get any better for Washington. 

The Giants will be playing their 4th straight divisional game, while the Commanders will be playing a consecutive divisional game. And it's this same Giants team, with a bye in between. Think about that, it's essentially 3 weeks of game planning/practice against the same damn team.

After that full over time tie, one team got to rest, the other had to play arguably the best team in football. Now the Giants have to turn around and play the rested version of Washington after getting beat down by Philly.

This feels like an impossible climb, as they are battered and bruised. Saquon Barkley toughed it out last game with a neck issue, but wasn't able to finish the game. He's probable this week but no chance of being 100% imo. The Giants have 5 listed out, 3 questionable, and 9 on IR.

The Giants have gone 1-4-1 in their last 6, with that one win being against the Texans. The 4 losses were by 22, 8, 13, and 14. In this span, they've been at home 4 times.

The Commanders have gone 4-1-1 in their last 6, with the one loss vs Minnesota where they had a 17-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Their wins have been by 6, 13, 11, and 1(1 being the most distant win). In this span, they've been otr 4 times.

If you look at common opponents, both teams are 5-4 against them, only that the Giants pt differential is -26, and Commanders is -7. Now if we look at these opponents after W7(post Wentz), Commanders are 3-0 with a +26, Giants 2-1 with a -17.

Since week 10...

Dvoa: Giants #24, Commanders #9

Defensive epa: Giants #31, Commanders #2

Offensive epa: Giants #19, Commanders #13

This is nothing, I have some nail in the coffin type shit coming up

Brian Dabol is a rookie coach. Great offensive coordinator when he was with the Bills. He got the Giants playing over their heads in the early part of the season. Starting 6-1 was great, but the #'s didn't add up, the luck would run out.

Now Dabol has to go up against Ron Rivera who's been a HC for 11 years, a coordinator or positions coach sine 1997, and a player for 8 years. He's a players coach, a good motivator.

In his entire year as a HC, Rivera is 18-13 su when facing a divisional opponent for the second time in a season. PF=24.74, PA=22.29. But if you include only the season where he is in playoff contention at this juncture of the year, he is 12-4 su. PF=26.06, PA=17.06.

If there is anything else to cover, I guess that we should look at the referee crew.

Since 2016, home teams in Divisional games are 32-12 on the moneyline (73%) with John Hussey.

Home teams in those same games are 29-13-2 ATS (70%), the best ATS record of any referee.

The only thing I don't know is if Chase Young plays or not. That would be a nice lift if he does.

@undermysac

 Absolutely agree with everything you said. I hope it's all wrong as Giants fan . Let's go BIG BLUE. Good luck.

GL gents and to anyone in the fantasy playoffs.   I have a bye in 3 leagues so I’ll be watching from the sidelines for once 

@JDD

 Jets back to -1.  Maybe your buddy is right