CD Newsletter Week 13

Ok here we go, this is my first time doing this, so I will give it my best:

Bills -5 @ Patriots Total 43.5

Both teams REALLY need this game....I feel like I am gonna think and say that a lot in this newsletter.  There are 6 teams either 7-4 or 6-5 in the AFC right now, and they all have a chance at the last few spots, assuming we all expect Buffalo, Miami, KC, and Tenn to get there. The Pats and the Bills have good defenses, allowing 307 and 327 yards to opposing teams respectively.  I have tempered betting on the Bills myself, fading them for many of their recent games as they have only 5 covers on the season.   This may happen a lot when some teams are playing their super bowl against you.  Josh Allen just seems to always make a mistake near the goal line or in the red zone.....it must be infuriating to Bills fans.  Some real head scratching moments sometimes with Josh, as he is on pace to throw a career high number of INTs.  But the talent is obviously there, even though he has a QBR barely in the top 10 in the NFL, and just 2 tenths of a point higher than Andy Dalton (I know.....right?!?!?) Josh has to clean up his act a little.....as some of these recent games should not have even been as close as they were. Von Miller injury will hurt the team, but they are deep, and well constructed.  The Pats seem to keep getting by on D, Special Teams, and keeping the turnover margin in the black.  They do have some injury issues this week themselves, which may make it harder for Mac Jones to keep up, with their starting C, CB, RT, RB2, and both WRs limited in practice.  Will Bill find a way to corral that offense for 4 whole quarters....it would be impressive if he does.....some other points:

--Remember what the Bears did to the Pats with Fields.....and how we were talking about the benefit of quicker LBs to handle the run heavy approach...to be able to stop that designed run out of the shotgun empty backfield when they run the back in motion and catch you in man coverage, then the center gets to the 2nd level and seals the block on the LB...remember what Fields did to them? Now go back and look at what Lamar Jackson did to them.  Now think about what Sean McDermott could be planning.

--During/after that Pack/Bills game when the Packers ran all over them in the second half.....that carried over a little in the next 2 Bills games and they gave up a lot of yards on the ground......but in the last 2 games the Bills held the Browns to 80 and the Lions to 97 yards......they are 7th in the NFL in opp rush yards/game......which brings me to.......

--If the Pats WRs are not 100%.....Mac Jones.....idk.....Mac Jones just went 28/39 for 382 and 2TD/0 INT and that was in a LOSS....the Pats are 26th in Yds/Att and 22nd in Yds/game on the ground......they are supposed to be a ball control grind it out kinda team.   Do they want to be in a shootout with Buffalo.  Bill Belichick 100% wants to turn this into a barfight if he can......the Pats best chance of winning this game is to legit come out and smack them hard from the start, anything to get Buffalo uncomfortable.  IDK if any of you watched Tulane vs Cincy....but the Pats need to do to the Bills what Tulane does to teams.  Tackle well, play THROUGH the whistle....and make the guy across from you wanna be anywhere else but where he is.

-- The biggest thing I take away from looking over both teams' results so far this season.....is that although they do not cover at a super high rate......these Bills have 3 losses by a TOTAL of 8 points to 3 teams with a total record of 24-9.  Respectable? Absolutely.  The Patriots 6 wins are against teams playing well below .500, and the Jets twice with serious QB issues.  Just some stuff to think about......and obviously........to be continued.........

 

Good Lord...you may break the covers servers on this one game 

not all of these will be so long.  That is kind of a juicy game.  Lot going on there.  We also have falcons pitt and ravens broncos this week.  Relax.  

Broncos (3-8) @ Ravens (7-4) 38.5 total..........Ravens -8.5

Russ...wow...good lord.  What if I told you in August that Russ would be sitting with a 58% completion rate, 8 TD, 5 INT, and a 32 QBR in December.  Well, I just told you that.  This game is more important for Baltimore reasons.  They are winning despite themselves.  They, like Josh Allen, need to clean it up.  If there ever was a get right game, this one is at the perfect time and on a silver platter.   Must win for the Ravens.  Must win, must be a complete game, just has to be a convincing W in my opinion.

Packers (4-8) @ Bears (3-9) 42.5 total.........Pack -3  

Average fan probably not interested here, just based on injuries alone.  Bears, first Fields, then Herbert, Mooney, Eddie Jackson, Brisker, Gordon, Rieff.....just wow.....I actually bet this early at Pack -2.5, it moved to -1 and now back to -3.  My best guess is Rodgers plays and Fields does not.....but that is only a guess.  It is a shame because we were starting to see flashes of what Fields could be.....and even a little fight from the Pack.....but they are both all but tucked in for next year.  This is their 2nd meeting this season, the first being a 27-10 Pack win back in week 2 at full strength.  This should be boring, but the Bears made the Jets offense in the rain look amazing, so I think whoever QBs for the Pack will have plenty of time, and plenty of opportunity. 

 

 

Jaguars (4-7) @ Lions (4-7)............Lions -1 Total 51.5  

This I am hoping will be a good one.  A couple of firecrackers.  Detroit is like the Harold Baines litmus test for the league, and the Jags, well, does anyone ever really wanna play them?  I feel like as a Raider fan, I am always seeing my team in crazy games, but these 2 teams are almost always in oddball games too and I can't ever remember seeing them play each other. (I just actually googled this and this will be the 3rd time they've played in the last decade, so yeah, they never play each other).  These teams are part of that second tier of NFL parity that need to break through and really take that next step to be expected to hang with the big boys.  If the Lions win next week, and a couple other things happen, they will have a legit path to the playoffs.  If you look at their remaining schedule.....I mean it could happen.....are the Commanders and Giants and Bucs that much better than Detroit?  As far as the Jags are concerned, they will obviously have chances to score here....this seems like an auto over bet.  The Jags just absolutely stole a game from the Ravens.....talk about a high.....and they also love love love to play to the level of their competition.........go look at who they beat and who they lose to......the may be able to beat playoff caliber teams, but they are not one, and if you look at the remaining schedule, they will not be one

@JDD

 

Just having some fun bro...Your alright with us ...you do you 

Browns (4-7) @ Texans (1-9)........Browns -7  Total 47 

In the "A Little Lower Please" Bowl......we have these 2 squads.  I want one of the Houston beat reporters to ask Lovie Smith some dumb question about Watson and Houston and massages and somehow tie it all together awkwardly and force my man Lovie to just stare at them.  Someone will, I would bet on it.  Some overzealous reporter that wants their 15 seconds of twitter fame will find a way to make it into a realistic question.  What they really should be asking the man with a beard I would give my left pinky for, is what he is gonna do for work next year.  Man did he inherit one hell of a terrible stepson with this team.  Sometimes the mom is too hot though, and in this case, the mom was Lovie's paycheck and it wasn't gonna get any bigger anywhere else.  

Now these Browns.....interesting stuff here to me.....they have weapons, and if that team can be competitive with Jacoby Brissett back there, imagine what a mobile QB can do.  I do not agree with bringing your own shmedium loin cloth to massage appointments, and I think the kid is definitely a little bit of a creeper, but he can run my offense any day.  They have a remaining schedule that looks like it is gonna get interesting near the end for playoff positioning.  This team beats good teams, they have a little dawg in them....This is a perfect tune up for Watson too, one week before a big division rematch against the Bengals, against this anemic Houston squad.  Now DeShaun hasn't played in awhile, and surely he will be sore, and we already know Houston is a place where he will be able to find a professional masseuse after the game.  Looks like for the first time in quite some time......everything is comin' up Watson.

Commies (7-5) @ G-Men (7-4)...........Commies -2.5    Total 40.5    

I bet this one early on the lookahead at Commies -1.5, felt like it would move a bit.  I gotta say I love these Commies, I have been betting them early and often since that week they upset the Packers.  This team fights.  Their offensive metrics aren't impressive, but the defense is what pays the bills around Washington.  I think this may be a perfect week for them to go play the Giants too.  Heinicke must give Ron Rivera "agita" as we say in Italian, which means indigestion.  If he would calm down the careless turnovers sometimes, they may not always be in such nail biters.....frankly they cannot afford that level of carelessness.  They are not talented enough on offense for it. Somehow, they are breakeven on turnovers for the year.  The Giants sure stormed out of the gates, but I would guess most people (myself included) expected regression, and they have since lost 3 of 4.  Saquon leads the team in rushing, and in receptions.  Daniel Jones basically has to play perfect football much like Heinicke, in order for them to win, but the Giants have way less help around Jones than Heinicke has.  If the Commies play clean, this should be a W for Heinicke and Rivera.  A guy on the radio said every time he hears the name Heinicke, he has these urges to drink a beer and do his brakes at the same time.  

Jets (7-4) @ Vikings (9-2)...........Vikes -3   Total 45.5   

Mike White again it looks like.....and I don't know that these Jets are gonna have the same success in Minny as they had against the Bears 2nd string on skates in the rain.  It would absolutely surprise the hell out of me if the Jets walk outta Minny with a win this weekend, and I like rooting for the Jets.  These Vikes have bounced back after a Dallas beat down, and are a game or 2 away from clinching the division I believe.  I hate to put it all on one or 2 players, but most of this game is going to come down to if Mike White can game manage properly, and if Sauce can cover Jefferson.  I bet on Sauce months ago as DROY at +1050 odds, so I hope he can.  Don't even bother looking, you can't get that price no mo. Minny gives it up on defense, almost 400 yards per game......they made Mac Jones look like Dan Marino for a second, so this may be a better matchup than we think for Mikey.  Hoping for another good game.  This last playoff spot is the Jets to lose at this point, QB problems and all.

The game has changed 

First ever newsletter editor to take a nap before finishing an article. And when I say nap, it's gonna be an all nighter.

So I'm taking my Tuesday morning shit, with nothing to read, and stumble upon this gem. Check out this bitchin' poster. If I were a teenage girl, the avatar might get me wet.

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/mnf-rooney-rule-steelers-colts-wwrite-up-103689954/1

great job.....

Browns/Houston should BWS be favored by 7, my guess is the Browns game plan will be exactly the same as it would be with Briskett, of course as Boner boy gets acclimated they will add some wrinkles and ask him to do more. Something tells me the total of 47 will lure plenty of U money only to have it creep over.I would not bet this game with the Eskimo's money, but if i did i'd take 7 & more. 

Unless Russell Wilson sets the wayback machine to the 20 teens there is no way they win but with the aversion to the endzone the Ravens seem to have it might take 7 fg's and 2 td's for the cover.I don't know what Denver team total is but i highly doubt they score more than 13 - 17.

Anyone who takes the O in the Meadowlands is a hard rock mofo. 

The gang just piling on poor ol jd here 

 

Early leans

 

Buf/ne over 3.5 fg...looking for some drives to stall ...2 good defences

 

@JDD

 Get off the online poker

Page newsletter gets completed on

 

Total=2.5  

 

GL all

 

 

@undermysac

 Brownies/Texarkanas 

 

Do browns slightly abandon run game with rub n tug back at qb???

 

Or do Texans over-play the pass with the "new qb" playing opening up huge lanes for Chubb??

 

was browns OL that good vs Tampa or did the weather/conditions account for most of chubb work 

 

 

@Biscuiteater1

 Do Brownies go a bit pass heavy with their new qb or stick to the run game....

 

Partially leaning the Brownies will let him pass and try to "show-out" against his old team

I dunno bud, if he were out for a month or 2 maybe but dude has not played a real game in a long time and after sundays win something tells me they want another one and will follow same game plan more or less this week.I really think the playing old team means nothing here. 

@BIGDTITLE

 

Bills locker room fighting an illness, at least 5 players missing practice.   Add it to the list I made in Week 12 newsletter