of course, there are other factors, but it would not surprise me if these three teams went 2-1 this week.
1. Philly +3- philly is the worst team of all times, overrated every week with no coaching. but they've never had a qb so this isn't much of a difference, probably an improvement. and washington has no pass defense. this is probably the best situation because foles is a rookie and most people automatically assume he sucks based on last week. washington needs the game, everyone has written philly off. i might have to play this one.
Pitt +3- this will be a hard one. leftwich looked bad, but the problem is, he really is that bad. i actually didn't know he was still in the league. i thought that was jared lorenzen with a spray on tan. but it still fits this angle so i'll probably play it too.
Chicago +7 another good one. caompbell is probably the best of the three right now. he's certainly had the most success in his career. and this is probably the least line value. i think SF should be a 6 point favorite with cutler, but then again we think houston and SF are clearly better than chicago which is why we liked houston last week. i'm the least excited about this one because i don't see much of a line reaction, although 6 to 7 is always something to consider.
we also like: AZ, Clev, Stl, Oak. and, this is the biggest spread i can remember betting but i think indy is overrated and ready for a beating. this line should be higher if NE comes to play a full game- NE.
keep in mind, two weeks ago was the crazy week where almost all favorites covered and we survived ging 3-3. we figured there would be a reversion last week and bet more usual and had a nice week. so, we are due for a bad one any week now.
on Stl, i'm worried that we missed the boat by not taking Seattle at home vs the jets last week. in hindsight, that was one of the better bets one can make in the nfl and we missed it although we love seattle and hate the jets. we also love Stl, probably more than any team in the nfl, but the jets looked horrible last week and we all know a team is never as bad as they look one week and usually have enough pride and motivation to come back stronger the next week. so i'm not sold on this play.
anyway, good luck.