Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by westsi819:
duh-oh! u beat me to it!
duh-oh! u beat me to it!
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2011 NBA Playoffs: Profiting With Line Movements.
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by westsi819:
Don't know about last night game.. the refs got their hands on this one. All calls were against the Mavs. IMO, definitely a fix. Smart you took the day off.
Bigger rig in Game 1 for the Mavericks.
So, if this game looked "fixed," then it simply balanced out the terrible officiating from Game 1. :)
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
I typically only study line movements in the postseason because the action is significant enough, in my opinion, to matter.
For NCAA March Madness, I utilized a simple betting strategy which faded line movements and tracked the progress of such a “system.” It was hugely profitable and noticed heavily in the Covers Mains.
I have begun utilizing the same line movement study in the 2011 NBA Playoffs, and according to my Sportsbook, going against the line movements from opening line to closing line has yielded nine wins, two losses and 1 push. Seven games did not qualify because there was no line movement, or the movement was induced by a key injury (Manu Ginobili).
Here are the detailed results:
Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers
Game 1
Chicago Bulls opened at -11 and closed at -12.5.
Chicago Bulls won the game 104-99.
Result: Pacers +12.5 (WIN)
Game 2
The line moved towards Indiana, and Indiana did cover.
Result: (LOSS)
Game 3
Chicago Bulls opened at -4.5 and closed at -3.5.
Chicago Bulls won the game 88-84.
Result: Bulls -3.5 (WIN)
Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers
Game 1
No movement.
Game 2
Miami Heat opened at -9.5 and closed at -9.
Miami Heat won the game 93-74.
Result: Heat -9 (WIN)
Game 3
No movement.
Orlando Magic/Atlanta Hawks
Game 1
Orlando Magic opened at -8 and closed at -9.
Atlanta Hawks won the game 103-93.
Result: Hawks +9 (WIN)
Game 2
Orlando Magic opened at -8.5 and closed at -9.
Orlando Magic won the game 88-82.
Result: Hawks +9 (WIN)
Portland Trail Blazers/Dallas Mavericks
Game 1
Dallas Mavericks opened at -5.5 and closed at -4.5.
Dallas Mavericks won the game 89-81.
Result: Mavericks -4.5 (WIN)
Game 2
No movement.
Game 3
The line moved towards Portland, and the Blazers ending up with a PUSH.
San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies
Game 1
Line movement was a result of Ginobili speculation.
Game 2
Line movement was a result of Ginobili speculation.
Los Angeles Lakers/New Orleans Hornets
Game 1
Los Angeles Lakers opened at -10 and closed at -11.
New Orleans Hornets won the game 109-100.
Result: Hornets +11 (WIN)
Game 2
Los Angeles Lakers opened at -11.5 and closed at -12.
Los Angles Lakers won the game 87-78.
Result: Hornets +12 (WIN)
Boston Celtics/New York Knicks
Game 1
No movement.
Game 2
No movement.
Oklahoma City Thunder/Denver Nuggets
Game 1
Oklahoma City Thunder opened at -4.5 and closed at -6.
Oklahoma City Thunder won the game 107-103.
Result: Nuggets +6 (WIN)
Game 2
The line moved towards Oklahoma City, and Oklahoma City did cover.
Result: (LOSS)
I don’t recommend simply viewing line movements and making wagers, but I do recommend taking this trend into consideration when finalizing your capping of individual games.
I typically only study line movements in the postseason because the action is significant enough, in my opinion, to matter.
For NCAA March Madness, I utilized a simple betting strategy which faded line movements and tracked the progress of such a “system.” It was hugely profitable and noticed heavily in the Covers Mains.
I have begun utilizing the same line movement study in the 2011 NBA Playoffs, and according to my Sportsbook, going against the line movements from opening line to closing line has yielded nine wins, two losses and 1 push. Seven games did not qualify because there was no line movement, or the movement was induced by a key injury (Manu Ginobili).
Here are the detailed results:
Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers
Game 1
Chicago Bulls opened at -11 and closed at -12.5.
Chicago Bulls won the game 104-99.
Result: Pacers +12.5 (WIN)
Game 2
The line moved towards Indiana, and Indiana did cover.
Result: (LOSS)
Game 3
Chicago Bulls opened at -4.5 and closed at -3.5.
Chicago Bulls won the game 88-84.
Result: Bulls -3.5 (WIN)
Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers
Game 1
No movement.
Game 2
Miami Heat opened at -9.5 and closed at -9.
Miami Heat won the game 93-74.
Result: Heat -9 (WIN)
Game 3
No movement.
Orlando Magic/Atlanta Hawks
Game 1
Orlando Magic opened at -8 and closed at -9.
Atlanta Hawks won the game 103-93.
Result: Hawks +9 (WIN)
Game 2
Orlando Magic opened at -8.5 and closed at -9.
Orlando Magic won the game 88-82.
Result: Hawks +9 (WIN)
Portland Trail Blazers/Dallas Mavericks
Game 1
Dallas Mavericks opened at -5.5 and closed at -4.5.
Dallas Mavericks won the game 89-81.
Result: Mavericks -4.5 (WIN)
Game 2
No movement.
Game 3
The line moved towards Portland, and the Blazers ending up with a PUSH.
San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies
Game 1
Line movement was a result of Ginobili speculation.
Game 2
Line movement was a result of Ginobili speculation.
Los Angeles Lakers/New Orleans Hornets
Game 1
Los Angeles Lakers opened at -10 and closed at -11.
New Orleans Hornets won the game 109-100.
Result: Hornets +11 (WIN)
Game 2
Los Angeles Lakers opened at -11.5 and closed at -12.
Los Angles Lakers won the game 87-78.
Result: Hornets +12 (WIN)
Boston Celtics/New York Knicks
Game 1
No movement.
Game 2
No movement.
Oklahoma City Thunder/Denver Nuggets
Game 1
Oklahoma City Thunder opened at -4.5 and closed at -6.
Oklahoma City Thunder won the game 107-103.
Result: Nuggets +6 (WIN)
Game 2
The line moved towards Oklahoma City, and Oklahoma City did cover.
Result: (LOSS)
I don’t recommend simply viewing line movements and making wagers, but I do recommend taking this trend into consideration when finalizing your capping of individual games.
This is very interesting. Under 'normal' circumstances you'd expect the 'line-moves' to be effected by SHARPS, but like you said, in the playoffs and/or NCAAB tourney, the public $$ dramatically increases, thus becoming a 'force' in the line-movement arena. These results are VERY intriguing. I think things will even out a bit though, as the public is going to 'settle-in' and start backing the 'true public' teams no matter what happened in the previous game. Obviously first round, and especially the first couple of games, proves how 'reactionary' an average bettor truly is. Either way, this is EXCELLENT data. Thank you for sharing.
BOL Sarah.
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Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
This is very interesting. Under 'normal' circumstances you'd expect the 'line-moves' to be effected by SHARPS, but like you said, in the playoffs and/or NCAAB tourney, the public $$ dramatically increases, thus becoming a 'force' in the line-movement arena. These results are VERY intriguing. I think things will even out a bit though, as the public is going to 'settle-in' and start backing the 'true public' teams no matter what happened in the previous game. Obviously first round, and especially the first couple of games, proves how 'reactionary' an average bettor truly is. Either way, this is EXCELLENT data. Thank you for sharing.
BOL Sarah.
Thanks Bodio! Good luck tonight.
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by westsi819:
the play for tonight should be BOS, ATL, and NOH?
the play for tonight should be BOS, ATL, and NOH?
line opened
BOS +1.5 to 3/3.5,
ATL +2 to 2.5
NOH +4.5 to 5/5.5
The Knicks line is moving due to injuries, so that's a no play regardless of what happens on the line (Stoudemire/Billups).
Atlanta is too close to call at this point.
New Orleans seems to be the only play as of right now, but that could change also. I wait until 10 minutes before tipoff.
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Posted:
#37
Blindly Fading the public is "foolsgold".
I've charted linemovements for over 25 years, the public can and often does have many, many strong moments over the coarse of a season.
Just ask collegegambler who wouldn't listen when I told this and then got himself buried trying to fade the public.
And by the way, if you were fading the linemovements on totals you'd be 5-11.
Last season in the NBA playoffs the linemovements ate the books for lunch !!!
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Blindly Fading the public is "foolsgold".
I've charted linemovements for over 25 years, the public can and often does have many, many strong moments over the coarse of a season.
Just ask collegegambler who wouldn't listen when I told this and then got himself buried trying to fade the public.
And by the way, if you were fading the linemovements on totals you'd be 5-11.
Last season in the NBA playoffs the linemovements ate the books for lunch !!!
Some errors in your post:
1) Line movements aren't solely created by "the public."
2) I specifically said this is not encouraged during a full season: only at points when the betting public is a force, such as playoffs/tournaments.
3) I specifically said not to "blindly" fade the public.
I know my article was long, but please read it in full before posting. It will save you (and me) a lot of time and trouble.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Blindly Fading the public is "foolsgold".
I've charted linemovements for over 25 years, the public can and often does have many, many strong moments over the coarse of a season.
Just ask collegegambler who wouldn't listen when I told this and then got himself buried trying to fade the public.
And by the way, if you were fading the linemovements on totals you'd be 5-11.
Last season in the NBA playoffs the linemovements ate the books for lunch !!!
I must be dumber than I thought.... I don't get what you are saying!! 
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Posted:
#41
SJP -- I totally concur with Bodio that this information that you have kindly shared with us is excellent information!
I'm going to be watching the line moves, too, in any playoff situation in any sport... gonna watch it closely with NHL, too, as of tonight's games.
It's gonna be hard to bet at my casino when I'm an 8-min walk from the casino at Tahoe... I'm going to have to find a way to get online there at the casino.
Any chance that you could post your line-move-based picks a half-hour before the starts of the respective games? That'll give me a chance to make it to the casino in time, short of getting online there at the casino and I'll look into that today when I go there to place my MLB bets for the day.
Btw, my initials of my real name are also SJP.
I'm going to be watching the line moves, too, in any playoff situation in any sport... gonna watch it closely with NHL, too, as of tonight's games.
It's gonna be hard to bet at my casino when I'm an 8-min walk from the casino at Tahoe... I'm going to have to find a way to get online there at the casino.
Any chance that you could post your line-move-based picks a half-hour before the starts of the respective games? That'll give me a chance to make it to the casino in time, short of getting online there at the casino and I'll look into that today when I go there to place my MLB bets for the day.
Btw, my initials of my real name are also SJP.
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:
SJP -- I totally concur with Bodio that this information that you have kindly shared with us is excellent information!
I'm going to be watching the line moves, too, in any playoff situation in any sport... gonna watch it closely with NHL, too, as of tonight's games.
It's gonna be hard to bet at my casino when I'm an 8-min walk from the casino at Tahoe... I'm going to have to find a way to get online there at the casino.
Any chance that you could post your line-move-based picks a half-hour before the starts of the respective games? That'll give me a chance to make it to the casino in time, short of getting online there at the casino and I'll look into that today when I go there to place my MLB bets for the day.
Btw, my initials of my real name are also SJP.
SJP -- I totally concur with Bodio that this information that you have kindly shared with us is excellent information!
I'm going to be watching the line moves, too, in any playoff situation in any sport... gonna watch it closely with NHL, too, as of tonight's games.
It's gonna be hard to bet at my casino when I'm an 8-min walk from the casino at Tahoe... I'm going to have to find a way to get online there at the casino.
Any chance that you could post your line-move-based picks a half-hour before the starts of the respective games? That'll give me a chance to make it to the casino in time, short of getting online there at the casino and I'll look into that today when I go there to place my MLB bets for the day.
Btw, my initials of my real name are also SJP.
The only problem is that a lot of bettors place their wagers and shift the lines immediately before game time. Whereas a line may move from opening (-2) to -2.5 with 30 minutes before tip-off, it may move back to -2 closer to tip-off and thus the original and final line would be the same.
I don't account for movements between these two periods (opening and closing).
I also don't recommend solely using the movements for plays.
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Posted:
#46
I have been doing it for the regular season and post!! have been killen my bookie!!! sometimes you can get a good, easy read. The other night with the lakers game was an real easy read. Love when i see 80% + on the over, and the total drops!! some people look at it and think yea, i got it a point or two lower and get happy! but i know better than that, vegas aint given nothing away free or easy!!!
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