Arena Football Playoffs.....................................2018

2-time defending champ Philly along with Baltimore and Albany.

Unfortunately for Philly they lost their starting QB for the season, but possible he could be back for the playoffs. Can't really get any info on this.

Baltimore plays the bottom team Washington and will likely win and advance to 8-4 while Albany and Philly play each other and one team must win and go to 8-4 as well while the other must lose.

I could not find any write-ups on who wins the tie-breakers for the no. 1 seed. Some sport this is , for a struggling league how can anyone follow the sport when they are so stingy with info, my goodness.

Big game of the last week is Philly at Albany, one issue we have is Philly's back-up QB has only 91 passes attempted, a very small sample of games to go off of but his QB passer rating is fairly high, only 6 or 7  pts or so below the starter  and he has a very high ave per pass attempt much higher then the starter..

We'll try to make a case in this game..................................

POWER RATINGS 1............................................................

Albany 10

Philly 3.95 ave 

Philly 5.47 with back-up adjusting for his big ave per pass and QBPR.

Albany - 9.05 over Philly .......using team ave

Albany -7.53 over Philly .........using back-up QB 

Albany is the right play in this game. The best we can give Philly is +7.53 but the truth likely falls somewhere in the middle as doubtful the back-up QB can sustain as high an ave per pass.

We'll take some small action on this game.

Albany -6.5 (-115) over Philly ...............2.3 units to win 2 units.

Ties of 1-1 go into tie-breakers , I think points scored , and if that is tied then OT.

If Albany wins and Baltimore wins then best I can figure is it will come down to strength of schedule between these 2 teams for no. 1 seed, which I would think should be the same as they played the same teams. Albany wins the next tie-breaker which I think is best point margin between the 2 teams.

So it is very possible Albany will be playing for the no. 1 seed, but I don't know this for sure and I can not find any info on it.

Covers consensus looks like they win ATS in the first game , with 68% on Philly VS Albany, we'll take more action on Albany. And we get a better line.

Albany -5.5 over Philly ....... 1.1 units 

1-0 ATS, won 3 units

He played 6 games this season so we do have some games to judge him, seems going off memory he played about the same as last season so it should be a good rating for Philly.

But whether he is 100% or not we may never know, as doubtful the team will be honest with his situation.

If he is healthy I would side with Philly over Baltimore, might be a bit inflated line as Philly being 2-time defending champs.

Overall I suspect even with his return, Albany will rate slightly better.  But it will be close as best I can tell without actually running the numbers.

Will get around to that sometime fairly soon, in next couple of days hopefully.

Albany  9.95

MY LINES...............................

Albany -18.58 over Washington

Philly -9.28 over Baltimore

Philly -3 (-120) over Baltimore ---  2.3 units to win 2 units

both plays have a 6 pt or better difference to line, 7-2 ATS with a 6 pt diff at any time not just on closing line. past 3 years.

last year we did go 0-2 ATS, should be a nice bounce back here.

6.5 favorites or more are 5-0 SU in semi's and finals 

under 6.5 favorites are 1-2 SU

both our teams are over 6.5 favorites but we do have a new format this season with the 2 game series , home and home.

we should be able to win at least 1 of these games  with a good possibility to get both.

both our teams are over 6.5 favorites

The info suggests  the Line in this game is way, way off.

I suspect in the playoffs many just like playing a huge home dog for no other reason then they are a huge home dog. Works in the NFL most times, but then again my lines has been on many of those teams, but not here, not even close, this game has big-time blow-out written all over it.

We'll try to bounce-back tonight on Philly.

Line did go up to -14, we did not have a 6 pt diff to closing line, but I have been following this past few years and does seem to work with a 6 pt diff at any time to my lines.

We have the same thing today as line up to -6 , we don't have a 6 pt diff to closing line unless line drops, we'll go for the play with a 6 pt diff on our line of -3..

Hopefully we bounce back and go 1-1, won't be so bad.

Albany -24.58 over Washington ...............game 2

Albany -13 (-120) over Washington --- 3.6 units to win 3 units

To date --- 1-2, lost 2.9 units

Interesting that both games opened more then 6 pts to my lines but closed less the 6 pts,  big line moves on both our teams .

Both teams again will open more then 6pt diff to my lines, we should bounce back in game 2's..

Philly -3.3 over Baltimore 

Philly +3 over Baltimore --- 2.4 units to win 2 units...........game 2

To Date --- 1-4 ATS, lost 8.9 units

Hopefully we can pull out a win in Arenabowl.