AFL Week 7 (Model Picks)

Tonights play:

2. IOWA +5 (18.89)

Iowa is currently my second best bet of the weekend.

Small lean towards:

SA vs IOWA UNDER 98 (7.86)

Thanks for the recognition Greenikes.

Here are my picks for the 7:00 games:

1.Pit vs Orl Under 96.5 (14.33)

Leans on:

Ari vs Jac Over 118.5 (7.24)

Ari -6.5 (7.13)

Here are the rest of my picks for the night. I apologize for posting late this week. I'm in Reno this week and I didnt want to move any lines before I got my chance to bet.

1.Spokane -7.5 (18.5) My bet moved this line at the Peppermill by a full point to -8.5

2.Cleveland +12.5 (14.46) Picking Cleveland outright!

3.Tampa Bay -18 (13.26)

4.Chicago +6 (8.51)

Leans:

Phi vs Chi Under 113 (7.7)

TB vs NO Under 107 (6.96)

That number is actually the difference between the casino's line and my line. So the 14.46 in the Cleveland game means that my model picked Cleveland to win by 1.96 (12.5-14.46=-1.96). It was a strange pick and I personally didn't agree with it but I post my picks as the are, no arbitrary decision making. A pick with a difference of 9 or higher should win around 65% of the time and that is where I usually set my threshold for making a bet. Differences of 18 or more should win around 96%.

Next week I'll post earlier. I went to Reno this weekend for a vacation and I'm not planning on returning till the NFL season starts.