AAF Week 6 Predictions

Saturday 4pm ET Bleacher Report Live

Memphis 1-4 at Salt Lake 1-4 - Current forecast: Sunny, 48 degrees

Memphis didn't look very good at Atlanta, getting dominated in all phases. Somehow Memphis had a shot to win right until the end, but fell 23-20. The score should have been more like 31-10. Now they face a Salt Lake team on the road, who should have easily beat San Diego but managed to lose on a FG on the last play of the game due to 5 turnovers and 12 penalties.

In this game I don't think Memphis will be able to run the ball at all. I think Mettenberger will take a lot of hits and sacks and could get knocked out of the game. Salt Lake will probably continue to make stupid mistakes and penalties, but I don't think the Memphis defense will force them to make the types of mistakes that will cost them the game like the San Diego defense did.

Talent wise Salt Lake is the much better team, and I think their defense could pitch a shut out at home.

Point spread prediction: -5 Salt Lake

My score prediction: Salt Lake 23, Memphis 9

Saturday 8pm ET NFL Network

Arizona 2-3 at Orlando 5-0 - Current forecast: Showers, 59 degrees

Arizona has basically been in a free fall since week 1. After a convincing home win vs Salt Lake week 1, they eeked out a sketchy 2 point win vs Hackenberg/Memphis week 2 and have since dropped 3 straight. Orlando meanwhile is firing on all cylinders and is clearly the class of the AAF and there isn't a close second. Orlando at home playing mistake free football.

Look for Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert to feast vs a Hotshot defense that gave up 290 yards and 2 TDs to Commander QB Logan Woodside while only managing 1 sack and 2 QB hits. John Wolford comes off a 3 INT game and now faces a ball hawking ORL defense that has 7 INTs in 5 games.

Point spread prediction: -9.5 Orlando

My score prediction: Orlando 34, Arizona 17

Sunday 4pm ET CBS Sports Network

San Antonio 3-2 at Atlanta 2-3 - Current forecast: Mostly sunny, 59 degrees

These two teams are both clearly on the rise, having won their last 2 games. Atlanta is rejuvenated under QB Aaron Murray and showed excellent run pass balance. If not for getting bogged down in the red zone and a few plays that took them out of FG range, the Legends could have easily score 30+ point vs Memphis. The Atlanta defense has been very stout the last two weeks as well, holding Memphis to 59 yards rushing and putting constant pressure on Zach Mettenberger.

San Antonio had some nice passing plays and capitalized on Arizona mistakes to take a big lead, then hung on for a 29-25 win at Arizona. San Antonio really struggled to run the ball however, and their defense gave up a lot of yards and first downs by the end of the game, but they were in a prevent for a portion of that. Although they had 3 sacks, they only managed 3 other QB hits. If they can't put any more heat than that on Aaron Murray they're in for a long game as he takes pretty good care of the football.

Point spread prediction: -2.5 Atlanta

My score prediciton: Atlanta 23, San Antonio 17

Sunday 8pm ET NFL Network

Birmingham 3-2 at San Diego 3-2 - Current forecast: Sunny, 55 degrees

Birmingham's mediocrity was fully exposed vs Orlando, but at least Birmingham finally had the good sense to bench milquetoast starting QB Luis Perez in favor of the much more dynamic Keith Price. Price displaying good mobility and a live arm against a good Orlando defense, in spite of having no running game and facing constant pressure. The vaunted Birmingham defense got blasted by Orlando, giving up 31 points, 468 yards, 7.3 yards per play, 286 passing, 182 rushing, and failed to sack Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert.

San Diego QB Mike Bercovici played fairly well in his second start, replacing the injured Philip Nelson. Although he only completed roughly half of his passes vs a tough Utah defense, he did gain 304 passing yards at 7.1 ypa, and had 1 TD and 1 INT, impressive considering he had no ground game of any kind vs Utah - SD managed 31 yards on 23 rushing attempts for a pathetic 1.35 ypc. Although the SD defense managed 3 sacks and 10 QB hits of Utah QB Josh Woodrum, they also allowed 380 passing yards.

The real question is how will these teams show up for this game? Will Birmingham's D dominate like it did weeks 1-4 or lactate like it did in week 5? Will SD RBs run to open field or into brick walls? How will Keith Price and Mike Bercovici fair with another full week of 1st team reps? Can Trent Richardson average 3+ yards per carry in a game? Will another 20,000+ fans show up and make noise for the home team?

Point spread prediction: -4.5 San Diego

My score prediction: San Diego 18, Birmingham 12

BOL with your bets.

I didn't really touch over/unders but if I had to guess what the lines will be they'd definitely tick upwards after the over went 4-0 last week:

Memphis/Salt Lake - 38 - Based on my prediction I like the Under.

Arizona/Orlando - 45 - Based on my prediction I like the Over.

San Antonio/Atlanta - 41 - Based on my prediction I'd Avoid this one.

Birmingham/San Diego - 35 - Based on my prediction I like the Under.