Posted:
#1
Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
Saturday, September 9
Elimination Final #1
Essendon Bombers +36.5 ($1100 to win $1000)
My goodness what a crazy line considering these two sides met in Sydney back on June 23 and the Swans managed to win 86-85. It was a thriller to say the least and I expect nothing less in this matchup as well. Sydney comes into the playoffs as the hottest team in the AFL but their home record of only 7-4 SU this season is a little concerning. Don't get me wrong, they have won 6 straight games at home but if you look at their home slate in 2017 you will see that of the 11 games played here, only 3 were played against teams that reached the playoffs and in all three of those games Sydney struggled (Lost 110-82 to Port Adelaide, Lost 105-63 to Greater Western Sydney and just barely beat the Bombers 86-85). All their other wins came against bottom feeder teams so the 6 in a row at home coming in is a bit misleading. Essendon on the other hand are hard to predict. They were only 4-7 SU away from home in 2017 with none of their wins coming against playoff opponents. They did however keep things close with Richmond (81-66 Loss), keep things close with Greater Western Sydney (117-101 Loss) and then of course the Swans game.
I don't really think that Essendon can win the match but they can surely keep it close. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four overall against the Swans and this will not be the blowout that everyone is expecting. Don't forget this is an elimination final. Loser goes home and the party is over so nerves will certainly play a part in this match and that could have the Swans playing tight. The Crows were able to destroy GWS two nights ago because they were loose knowing that a loss would still see them playing a semi-final. Nonetheless I expect Sydney to win this match but Essendon to at least make a run at it before seeing the Swans pull away in the fourth quarter.
Trend of the Game: Essendon is 3-1 ATS in their last four versus Sydney
Sydney 98, Essendon 76
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