RooBoy's AFL 2012 Rd4

2012 YTD: +2.46units

Hey lads in China this week and next, so limited time on the lappy/ covers unfortunately. Gonna still try get some punts on (as punting is life ). It seems another hard week beckons but as always will be trying to rob the bookies!

EARLY LEANS:
Freo +17.5 (defensive chocking game plan)
Port +41.5
Crows -88.5 (will play but gonna try get a better line)
WCE -4.5
GC +16.5
Tigers +34.5 (Cats 3 taxing games straight and still no Scarlett)
Roos +4.5
Dogs -18.5 (Dees sooooo muck and captain Grimes rubbed out)

PLAYING:

DOCKERS +17.5 .5units@ $1.92

--- Gonna be taking Freo and the points this week for a couple of reasons. Firstly this Saints team is very similar to the exact same team that Lyon has been coaching for the last few years and very close to the same team he took to 2 a GFs. He knows these guys inside out and will have all the right match ups sorted. He also has got this Freo side playing lock down strangling style footy and i see having 3 goals in the bank very advantageous. Another thing is, how good are the Saints really? Everyone says they are playing "great footy" but lets be logical for a second and focus on who they have played.... rd1 v Port and what do you know? They lost! Rd2 v Suns and they expectingly hammered them, But so should the rest of the league (Bombers took the foot off the petal after Q1 and it almost cost them). Finally Rd3 a win v Bulldogs. The dogs are shit!! What helps me prove this is the fact they are only favoured to beat the Demons by 3goals. When most other sides will surely be capped at 5-7 goals from now on. I know Freo shouldnt have Fyfe and yes no doubt this will hurt them. But i still see Lyon having this team ready to keep this close. I also believe Lyon will NOT be letting St.Nick kick a bagful this week. Although tbh i see Saints winning this encounter. Saints by 7 points.

GL 

Definitely going to be playing more games this week. And i have the Crows line penciled in as a 'must play'. but just hoping the line comes down a little? if it starts to move the other way then i will jumping on ASAP.

Like the Dockers  too but geez their H2H record against the Saints is a cause for concern. Dockers have lost their last 8 straight to the Saints & have not beaten them since 2007. That is a long time between drinks.

Still think the Saints getting too much respect here....Dockers were 6.5 pt dog @ Sydney Rd 3 & now 17.5 pt dog at Melbourne. Are the Saints 11 pts better than the Swans at their home ground? I seriously doubt it. Value lies with the Dockers for sure.            

ALSO PLAYING:

ROOS 1-39 .5units@ $2.65

--- Going to be showing some faith in my team this week as they face the Swans in Sydney on Sunday. The main reason i liked this play other than the odds was due to the fact that Goodes has been rubbed out. Tbh i cant remember the last time this Sydney team played without him and i think it will have an affect on the footy they produce. Year in and year out Goodes is a solid favourite for the Brownlow and i assume not having him available will tarnish the Swans as much as missing Harvey would tarnish the Roos. But the Roos arent missing Harvey. I also see Scott having the Kangas ready for this game, explaining to them that a lot more work is needed to be done to prove last weeks win against the reigning premiers was no fluke and wasnt only due to the Cats appearing flat. Another thing is Petrie was held goalless last weekend and there is NO WAY that will happen again! He is too good of a player and i see him bagging 3-5 with the aid of in form Edwards and developing big man forward Hamish getting in the mix too. Another thing that stuck out at me was an interview with Kangaroo player Sam Wright, where he has been quoted saying Kangas by 1-3 goals.

CROWS -21.5 (1stQ Line)  2units@ $1.75

--- Crows will come out hard and fast against the Giants just as they did vs the Suns. Giants have been getting rather hammered in the 1stQ's this season (as expected) and there is no reason why i see this w/e being any different. Crows also got done last week against a better side in Hawthorn but actually showed quite a bit of promise early in that before the Hawks were able to take complete control. So therefore i see this almost being a statement game against the Giants to get momentum in full swing again to try solidify a spot in the top 8. In rd1 Giants were only trailing by 17 (4.1-1.2) at the first break, but in all honesty Sydney came out very slow opposed to Giants looking good (IMO). In rd2 though the Giants were down by 43 at Qtime without even managing to score a goal (7.4-0.3) and last week in rd3 they were down by a whopping 58pts (11.4-2.0). Crows will handle them the same i believe. Seeing the opportunity to have the game won by quarter time to hard to resist!

DOGS-CATS-PIES-BLUES 1unit@ $2.20


--- Cant see any of these teams losing tbh. That is all


GL    Hope everyone has profitable fun w/e

Couldnt agree more that the h2h record concerns me. But lets not forget what coach had all those victories against the Dockers... Ross Lyon. Also added in the fact that he knows this Saints list inside out, i believe this game should be a close one and had originally tipped it Saints to win by 7pts on Sunday night (under the belief Fyfe would not play). Dockers do need to prove they can play away though and especially at Etihad where they have a disgusting record. But Etihad has been Lyon's home turf the last few yrs.

Good luck matey!!

CORRECTION:

--- Sam Wrights quotes which strangely disappeared??


"So I think you'll find there's almost no chance of us taking the foot off the gas after one good win."

"Our record against the Swans hasn't been great in recent years either. So I would have thought that's enough to keep our minds on the job."

BOL WE R A BIT DIFFERENT THIS WEEK

LUCKY

ALSO PLAYING:

WCE  -2.5 (1stQ Line) 1.5units @ $1.90

--- Playing the Eagles 1st quarter line tonight. This is a statement game here for West Coast as they are facing another genuine top 4 contender in the Hawks. Eagles have been very impressive in their 1st quarters this season and i think they will be pumped for this one tonight at home. In rd1 at Qtime they were up by 11 v Bulldogs, rd2 were up 20 v the Dees (@ home) and last week were up by 58 v the Giants. I realise they haven't had the stiffest competition in the first few weeks but they have always come out hard. What makes me think they will come out harder then usual this week is 1. They are playing a genuine contender so this is a statement game and 2. they would have copped a serving for the way they handled GWS last week, Worsfold was not happy. Eagles up by 6pts at Qtime.


GL 

Really hoping to not be burnt again by a late w/e play like last week

ALSO PLAYING:

DOGS -20.5 1unit@ $1.92

--- Getting on the Dogs line today as i think Melbourne are just not good enough ATM to be competitive. Melbourne have
GL 

CORRECTION:
sorry guys my covers over here is fucking up for some odd reason

ALSO PLAYING:

DOGS -20.5 1unit@ $1.92

--- Getting on the Dogs line today as i think Melbourne are just not good enough ATM to be competitive. Melbourne haveThe Bulldogs have struggled to score this season, averaging just nine goals a game, and were particularly impotent against St Kilda last week when they managed just two goals until the 20-minute mark of the final term. But the floodgates could finally open against the Demons, who have conceded an average of 21 goals a game while slotting just 10 themselves. Dogs by 28 points.

--- Getting on the Dogs line today as i think Melbourne are just not good enough ATM to be competitive. Melbourne have been smashed in uncontested possessions, a result of making far too many mistakes. The Demons can't generate enough inside 50s, averaging just 37 per game so far and they have leaked too many goals. Although most of the damage was done during 10 minutes of the third quarter last Saturday, the premiership quarter has become a problem for Melbourne. In three games, Melbourne has conceded 152 points and scored only 28 points in the third quarter. The players say it's not a physical issue but it is clear Melbourne is dropping off about midway through the third term each week, unable to keep playing at the intensity required. The Demons have lost nine of their past 10 games, and supporters are hoping the breakthrough might come this week against the Bulldogs, who are also winless. Emotions will be high following the pre-game tribute to Jim Stynes.  However, emotion will only take the team so far. They need to improve their effort around the stoppages and use the ball much better. Some decisions made against Richmond were just poor. The Bulldogs have won their past five matches against Melbourne by an average of 40 points, with three of these games being played at the MCG. Just once in this period have the Demons scored more than nine goals. In this time,expect Boyd to have a ripper as he loves playing the Dees. The Bulldogs have struggled to score this season, averaging just nine goals a game, and were particularly impotent against St Kilda last week when they managed just two goals until the 20-minute mark of the final term. But the floodgates could finally open against the Demons, who have conceded an average of 21 goals a game while slotting just 10 themselves. Dogs by 28 points.

FUCK ME that took forever to finally get on here. Lucky i copied it.

Also tried to say: I have played pies -6.5 for the Anzac game (1.5 units). I know the bombers were mega impressive yesterday but in the process of the win they lost 6 players including Full forward Hurley. Will post a write up either tomorrow or tuesday

GL 

RESULTS:
DOCKERS +17.5 .5units@ $1.92  

ROOS 1-39 .5units@ $2.65  

CROWS -21.5 (1stQ Line)  2units@ $1.75  

DOGS-CATS-PIES-BLUES 1unit@ $2.20 
(fkn carlton you pretending pricks!!)
WCE  -2.5 (1stQ Line) 1.5units @ $1.90  

DOGS -20.5 1unit@ $1.92  

+2.73

quite the good w/e thankfully!! 4-2   Carlton losing a true kick in the balls!!

nice week 

nice to see someone made a profit from this week of afl faggotry, if it wasnt for breaking even from on mma, mlb over the weekend and nadal on tennis tonight i'd have been fucked off with punting this weekend to the point of having a break for a few weeks from afl.

not really, i'd be back at it next week

Cheers boys! Got lucky on a couple though. Namely the dogs (coverd by 0.5) and the crows (kicking a goal on the Qtime siren to cover). But for us unlucky you get in punting you deserve some luck sometimes!

Still China bound though, so gonna be missing the Anzac game
Wont stop me betting though