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    All Forums | Other

    Netball GF

    binomial
    Jive_Turkey
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    binomial
    binomial
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    Posted: Jul. 24, 2009 - 9:58 PM ET #1

    YTD 41-26  +20.1u

    The way I am looking at it the line of 5 or 6 is about right.

    There is barely anything the teams all across the court at this point as several of the Adelaide players have picked up their game in recent weeks, plus Adelaide arguably have a better bench if needed. I would say Vixens 1 to 2 goals better on a neutral court other things being equal.

    In general Adelaide have been pretty good away so say three goals for home court.

    I think the break is an advantage, plus Adelaide coming back from a game in NZ is worth one or two goals.

    So this gives 5 to 7, whic is close to the two games during the season which were 6 and 8, and I would say Adelaide have improved more than Vixens since these matchups.

    I have futures bets of:
    4 units vixens at an average of $1.85
    1 unit Thunderbirds at an average of $5.40
    plus I had 1.5 units of losing futures

    so by my maths I finish 0.9 units up if vixens win and down 1.1 units if tbirds win. at this stage i am not planning to have any other bets on either side, but am thinking about the total.

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    YTD 41-26  +20.1u

    The way I am looking at it the line of 5 or 6 is about right.

    There is barely anything the teams all across the court at this point as several of the Adelaide players have picked up their game in recent weeks, plus Adelaide arguably have a better bench if needed. I would say Vixens 1 to 2 goals better on a neutral court other things being equal.

    In general Adelaide have been pretty good away so say three goals for home court.

    I think the break is an advantage, plus Adelaide coming back from a game in NZ is worth one or two goals.

    So this gives 5 to 7, whic is close to the two games during the season which were 6 and 8, and I would say Adelaide have improved more than Vixens since these matchups.

    I have futures bets of:
    4 units vixens at an average of $1.85
    1 unit Thunderbirds at an average of $5.40
    plus I had 1.5 units of losing futures

    so by my maths I finish 0.9 units up if vixens win and down 1.1 units if tbirds win. at this stage i am not planning to have any other bets on either side, but am thinking about the total.

     
    Jive_Turkey
    Jive_Turkey
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    Posts: 7558
    Posted: Jul. 25, 2009 - 7:51 AM ET #2

    I agree Bino, they've nailed the line pretty well for this grand final. I wouldn't take either team at the line, gun to my head the Vixens but 6 goals is a fairly comfortable cushion in netball and if the Vixens are ahead by 8 or 9 late in the game they could easily clock off in the last minute or two and allow a couple of cheapies.

    Total is also where it should be imo. 95.5, wow doesn't that just highlight what a joke that 98.5 was for last week's prelim final !?

    Probably slightly lean under the number for tomorrow but again, the number is pretty tight.

     

    Reply

    I agree Bino, they've nailed the line pretty well for this grand final. I wouldn't take either team at the line, gun to my head the Vixens but 6 goals is a fairly comfortable cushion in netball and if the Vixens are ahead by 8 or 9 late in the game they could easily clock off in the last minute or two and allow a couple of cheapies.

    Total is also where it should be imo. 95.5, wow doesn't that just highlight what a joke that 98.5 was for last week's prelim final !?

    Probably slightly lean under the number for tomorrow but again, the number is pretty tight.

     

     
    binomial
    binomial
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    Posts: 1252
    Posted: Jul. 25, 2009 - 9:46 PM ET #3

    my lean is over, still not sure if I will play it.

    my thinking is Magic incompetence has slowed the games down alot in recent weeks, but despite this both vixens and tbirds scored 50+ on them.

    the encounters between these two were low scoring, but they were early in the season and both sides improved offensively as the season went on.

    could be a tense low scoring struggle though.
    Reply
    my lean is over, still not sure if I will play it.

    my thinking is Magic incompetence has slowed the games down alot in recent weeks, but despite this both vixens and tbirds scored 50+ on them.

    the encounters between these two were low scoring, but they were early in the season and both sides improved offensively as the season went on.

    could be a tense low scoring struggle though.
     
     
    Jive_Turkey
    Jive_Turkey
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    Posts: 7558
    Posted: Jul. 25, 2009 - 10:34 PM ET #4

    yeah for mine there's a lot of uncertainty regarding the total. On paper it should go over that mark and it may, but given the occasion we could also see a 45-40 type of game.

    I just wouldn't like to bank on goals being scored at a certain clip to cash in a game like this.

    Reply

    yeah for mine there's a lot of uncertainty regarding the total. On paper it should go over that mark and it may, but given the occasion we could also see a 45-40 type of game.

    I just wouldn't like to bank on goals being scored at a certain clip to cash in a game like this.

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