Looking forward to this one. It's a pity bureaucracy kept the kings new import out.
Both teams have faced a similar quality of opposition so far, each only playing one team likely to finish in the top 5. Brisbane has been dominant with 3 of their 5 wins by 20+. Sydney have also been impressive in that while they have looked rather unimpressive for large parts of their games they have took control and got the job done down the stretch.
I rank Brisbane as the best offensive team to date and Sydney as the best defensive team to date.
Goorjian has said he believes they need to slow the tempo to have a chance. They were able to do this in the two semi final games last season, which they lost 86-93 and 84-91. If they are able to do this the game is likely to go under and I think their is some value in the 9 point start.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 19-7 +13.9u
Sydney +9
Brisbane v Sydney under 202.5
Looking forward to this one. It's a pity bureaucracy kept the kings new import out.
Both teams have faced a similar quality of opposition so far, each only playing one team likely to finish in the top 5. Brisbane has been dominant with 3 of their 5 wins by 20+. Sydney have also been impressive in that while they have looked rather unimpressive for large parts of their games they have took control and got the job done down the stretch.
I rank Brisbane as the best offensive team to date and Sydney as the best defensive team to date.
Goorjian has said he believes they need to slow the tempo to have a chance. They were able to do this in the two semi final games last season, which they lost 86-93 and 84-91. If they are able to do this the game is likely to go under and I think their is some value in the 9 point start.
Yep - Agree with the under. It could very well go over but common sense says if Kings want to win, they need to slow the game down because they don't have the firepower to match basket to basket with the Bullets.
Yep - Agree with the under. It could very well go over but common sense says if Kings want to win, they need to slow the game down because they don't have the firepower to match basket to basket with the Bullets.
I am a bit more cautious about the UNDER. I don't think the game will be as defensive as last year's final series. The players don't have that intensity (or legs) so early in the season. The Queens have shown great Defense in the first 5 games. This focus has affected their O. But they are winning so they will no doubt stick with this strategy. But how do they stop or slow down the high powered Bullets at their home court. The Queens have no dominant bigs and should be out-rebounded. I think the Queens will be chasing the Bullets throughout the night but I think they can keep it close. If the Kings keep it close, the first encounter of the season should go very close to 200pts. The Kings should be able to put up 94+pts. Lean on the OVER 200.5 as insurance.
Too much start for the Kings. I like Kings +8.5.
I am a bit more cautious about the UNDER. I don't think the game will be as defensive as last year's final series. The players don't have that intensity (or legs) so early in the season. The Queens have shown great Defense in the first 5 games. This focus has affected their O. But they are winning so they will no doubt stick with this strategy. But how do they stop or slow down the high powered Bullets at their home court. The Queens have no dominant bigs and should be out-rebounded. I think the Queens will be chasing the Bullets throughout the night but I think they can keep it close. If the Kings keep it close, the first encounter of the season should go very close to 200pts. The Kings should be able to put up 94+pts. Lean on the OVER 200.5 as insurance.
Was waiting thinking this may move higher but it doesn't look so.
While the Slingers probably didn't celbrate their 21 point loss to the Bullets, the box score suggests they are getting it together. They had 25 turnovers to 8, suggesting they couldn't handle the Brisbane pressure but apart from this there wasn't much differenece between the teams. Slingers edge the rebounds 50-48, Slingers shoot 48% v 46% and for 3s 40% v 24%.
Also they had impressive contributions from several of their no names. With only 26 combined from their two imports they still scored 106 against the best team in the league. Cameron 24 on 9/10 shooting, McDonald 15 points on 6/10 shooting, Fitzgerald 9 points and Allen 8 points. This suggests that Singapore are far from a two person team and are getting their act together.
In regards to the total, the first game this season seems to be a bit of an anomaly with 211 scored with the Tigers shooting 63% from the field. Melbourne could easily run riot again racking up a big score but this is not what I expect. My forecast is for around 190 points so I am on the under.
Singapore v Melbourne under 199.5 1u
Was waiting thinking this may move higher but it doesn't look so.
While the Slingers probably didn't celbrate their 21 point loss to the Bullets, the box score suggests they are getting it together. They had 25 turnovers to 8, suggesting they couldn't handle the Brisbane pressure but apart from this there wasn't much differenece between the teams. Slingers edge the rebounds 50-48, Slingers shoot 48% v 46% and for 3s 40% v 24%.
Also they had impressive contributions from several of their no names. With only 26 combined from their two imports they still scored 106 against the best team in the league. Cameron 24 on 9/10 shooting, McDonald 15 points on 6/10 shooting, Fitzgerald 9 points and Allen 8 points. This suggests that Singapore are far from a two person team and are getting their act together.
In regards to the total, the first game this season seems to be a bit of an anomaly with 211 scored with the Tigers shooting 63% from the field. Melbourne could easily run riot again racking up a big score but this is not what I expect. My forecast is for around 190 points so I am on the under.
Respect your opinion tantric and agree Sydney could put up some points in this one.
I have them shooting 45% on 2 point attempts and 29% on 3 point attempts, so far this year (fractionally worse in away games). If they hit some shots or break down the brisbane pressure, which I am sure they having been working hard on, the game could be high scoring.
But for mine the chance of this happening is less than the chance of it being a slow tempo, stodgy low scoring affair.
We shall see.
Respect your opinion tantric and agree Sydney could put up some points in this one.
I have them shooting 45% on 2 point attempts and 29% on 3 point attempts, so far this year (fractionally worse in away games). If they hit some shots or break down the brisbane pressure, which I am sure they having been working hard on, the game could be high scoring.
But for mine the chance of this happening is less than the chance of it being a slow tempo, stodgy low scoring affair.
NZ seem to have alot of jump shooters and inside toilers but without Carlos Powell and Brian Wethers they lack a scorer who can create off the dribble and get to the rim. Penny and Turner are reasonable but not what most clubs have.
They were outplayed by Townsville in the first half last week when Townsville up by 10 in the first half when crocs played with some intensity then got ahead when then Townsville dropped off and they hit some 3s. They still tried to blow the game in the final minutes as they did against West Sydney.
Even without Davidson and Adelaide being ordinairy on the road, I think this is fairly evenly matched and with NZ's current tendancy to go to powder at the end of the game 5.5 looks like value.
My numbers suggest under, but my feeling is that both teams will shoot alot of fairly open 3s and there are alot of quality shooters playing so alot of points could be scored if players are hitting shots.
YTD: 21-9 +12.7u
Adelaide +5.5 1u
NZ seem to have alot of jump shooters and inside toilers but without Carlos Powell and Brian Wethers they lack a scorer who can create off the dribble and get to the rim. Penny and Turner are reasonable but not what most clubs have.
They were outplayed by Townsville in the first half last week when Townsville up by 10 in the first half when crocs played with some intensity then got ahead when then Townsville dropped off and they hit some 3s. They still tried to blow the game in the final minutes as they did against West Sydney.
Even without Davidson and Adelaide being ordinairy on the road, I think this is fairly evenly matched and with NZ's current tendancy to go to powder at the end of the game 5.5 looks like value.
My numbers suggest under, but my feeling is that both teams will shoot alot of fairly open 3s and there are alot of quality shooters playing so alot of points could be scored if players are hitting shots.
Brisbane seem to be taking the loss to Sydney rather hard, with lots of questions about character and heart being asked. Coach Wright also asked why they couldn't play like they did in the fourth quarter for the whole game. They won the fourth quarter 42-32.
In six games Brisbane have averaged 117 points. Lowest score 113 (x2) and highest score 127. I'd be suprised if the Dragons D could keep a fired up Brisbane to their lowest score of the season. Meaning the Dragons don't have to score to many for it to go over.
Dragons were creditable against the other two powerhouses last week, Melbourne and Sydney, plus they get back Cortez Groves. However, from what I have read I think Brisbane will be fired up and I think they will get an easy win.
West Sydney +7.5 1u
West Sydney v Sydney over 199.5 2 units
Think this total is too low given West Sydney's strategy to play up tempo and Sydney finding their shooting touch on Wednesday night with 19 of 33 3s @ 58%.
Townsville -3 1u
Townsville v Adelaide over 203.5 2u
Brad Sheridan is meant to play which gives some depth Townsville. Homicide was very impressive in his first game: 26 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. Galen Young looked better in the game against NZ, although still gets called for too many fouls.
Rod was right that Adelaide would miss Davidson. Against NZ Sutton was given the starting role and did very little except pass the ball straight to a NZ player in the last minute when Adelaide were only down by 3 and would most likely have covered if they had scored, upsetting me considerably. Chappell found form and was impressive offensively.
My feeling is that Adelaide are destined to be also rans if they don't play better defence and spend more energy on defence. The loosey goosy offence seems to spill over into defence too often, giving up easy baskets.
I think John Rillie is due to hit some shots and the Adelaide defence may be what he needs to get going.
These two teams have the worst defensive ratings by one measure. I am expecting it will be up tempo and quite a few points will be scored.
YTD: 21-10 +11.7u
Brisbane -7.5 1u
Souths v Brisbane over 214.5 1u
Brisbane seem to be taking the loss to Sydney rather hard, with lots of questions about character and heart being asked. Coach Wright also asked why they couldn't play like they did in the fourth quarter for the whole game. They won the fourth quarter 42-32.
In six games Brisbane have averaged 117 points. Lowest score 113 (x2) and highest score 127. I'd be suprised if the Dragons D could keep a fired up Brisbane to their lowest score of the season. Meaning the Dragons don't have to score to many for it to go over.
Dragons were creditable against the other two powerhouses last week, Melbourne and Sydney, plus they get back Cortez Groves. However, from what I have read I think Brisbane will be fired up and I think they will get an easy win.
West Sydney +7.5 1u
West Sydney v Sydney over 199.5 2 units
Think this total is too low given West Sydney's strategy to play up tempo and Sydney finding their shooting touch on Wednesday night with 19 of 33 3s @ 58%.
Townsville -3 1u
Townsville v Adelaide over 203.5 2u
Brad Sheridan is meant to play which gives some depth Townsville. Homicide was very impressive in his first game: 26 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. Galen Young looked better in the game against NZ, although still gets called for too many fouls.
Rod was right that Adelaide would miss Davidson. Against NZ Sutton was given the starting role and did very little except pass the ball straight to a NZ player in the last minute when Adelaide were only down by 3 and would most likely have covered if they had scored, upsetting me considerably. Chappell found form and was impressive offensively.
My feeling is that Adelaide are destined to be also rans if they don't play better defence and spend more energy on defence. The loosey goosy offence seems to spill over into defence too often, giving up easy baskets.
I think John Rillie is due to hit some shots and the Adelaide defence may be what he needs to get going.
These two teams have the worst defensive ratings by one measure. I am expecting it will be up tempo and quite a few points will be scored.
AB, the razorbacks is primarily numbers based, plus the kings coming off their big win may not be as fired up as west sydney.
Initially i didn't like it myself, but i think this is placing to much emphasis on wednesday night, plus the pigs last start was a shocker. Their three games before were two solid road wins plus they smashed Perth at home. It is probably my least favoured of my picks but i still think there is some value in it. Doesn't hurt to see rod on it also.
Happy to see you on the same tantric.
AB, the razorbacks is primarily numbers based, plus the kings coming off their big win may not be as fired up as west sydney.
Initially i didn't like it myself, but i think this is placing to much emphasis on wednesday night, plus the pigs last start was a shocker. Their three games before were two solid road wins plus they smashed Perth at home. It is probably my least favoured of my picks but i still think there is some value in it. Doesn't hurt to see rod on it also.
Fair point jimmyruss. I agree it is a risk but would counter with a few points.
Three of sydney's games were against low scoring opposition - Gold Coast generally low, Townsville when they were down on personnel were low against several teams and cairns have pretty well been low in all their games, so the other team is setting the tempo as much as sydney in these games.
Secondly, West Sydney are v likely to play up tempo, the coach keeps saying this is their style and that is how they have played in their games so far. i think sydney will play along after they beat the best uptempo team brisbane at their own game 3 nights ago.
Third it wasn't that long ago that sydney were close to the highest scoring team in the league, playing pretty much as they did the other night - jacking up and hitting plent o 3s. Maybe the free and easy days are back.
Anyway, we shall soon see.
GL with your bet.
Fair point jimmyruss. I agree it is a risk but would counter with a few points.
Three of sydney's games were against low scoring opposition - Gold Coast generally low, Townsville when they were down on personnel were low against several teams and cairns have pretty well been low in all their games, so the other team is setting the tempo as much as sydney in these games.
Secondly, West Sydney are v likely to play up tempo, the coach keeps saying this is their style and that is how they have played in their games so far. i think sydney will play along after they beat the best uptempo team brisbane at their own game 3 nights ago.
Third it wasn't that long ago that sydney were close to the highest scoring team in the league, playing pretty much as they did the other night - jacking up and hitting plent o 3s. Maybe the free and easy days are back.
Binomial what you said about the Kings game is what happened last night. I was there last night - The Kings waited late on the count before attempting shots. They fell behind and couldn't get out of the hole. Some fantastic 3 pointers from the Pigs also helped.
Binomial what you said about the Kings game is what happened last night. I was there last night - The Kings waited late on the count before attempting shots. They fell behind and couldn't get out of the hole. Some fantastic 3 pointers from the Pigs also helped.
3-3 last night but lost both my 2 unit totals - by a half and one and a half points. West Sydney didn't score in the last minute and Sydney decided to lay down rather than foul even though they were not that far behind.
165 points at 3q time in Townsville but could they score 39 in the last? no they could not. I am directing my anger at Phil Smyth who i put up as the most overated coach ever. Can't get his teams to play defence, can't get them to play on the road, runs a cutting edge offence of jack up what ever you like whenever you like. Adelaide has not had great squads over the past few seasons, but that doesn't mean they haven't under achieved.
Anyway, enough whingeing.
Singapore +2 1u
I am not sold on NZ. They beat Townsville by 1 who had Homicide their point guard playing his first game. They beat Adelaide by a few but Adelaide lead with a few minutes to go then played poorly in the last few minutes.
NZ won two games on the road last season (one of them against the above mentioned mighty Adelaide). Singapore handled them easily in both games in Singapore, although both squads were very different.
Singapore are improving and getting contributions from several no names. I think they should be favourite here.
Still thinking about the total in this one, there has been alot of money for the over.
Perth v Cairns under 189.5 1u
The highest score in a Cairns game this season is 185 and the average is 175. Perth are generally lower scoring than the average and don't mind a slower tempo.
This seems pretty obvious although Alan Black has been talking about scoring more points, but who doesn't want to score more points, doing it is harder than wanting to do it.
I have a bad feeling about this one but am taking it anyway. Wouldn't suprise me to see it land on 190.
YTD: 24-13 +9.4u
3-3 last night but lost both my 2 unit totals - by a half and one and a half points. West Sydney didn't score in the last minute and Sydney decided to lay down rather than foul even though they were not that far behind.
165 points at 3q time in Townsville but could they score 39 in the last? no they could not. I am directing my anger at Phil Smyth who i put up as the most overated coach ever. Can't get his teams to play defence, can't get them to play on the road, runs a cutting edge offence of jack up what ever you like whenever you like. Adelaide has not had great squads over the past few seasons, but that doesn't mean they haven't under achieved.
Anyway, enough whingeing.
Singapore +2 1u
I am not sold on NZ. They beat Townsville by 1 who had Homicide their point guard playing his first game. They beat Adelaide by a few but Adelaide lead with a few minutes to go then played poorly in the last few minutes.
NZ won two games on the road last season (one of them against the above mentioned mighty Adelaide). Singapore handled them easily in both games in Singapore, although both squads were very different.
Singapore are improving and getting contributions from several no names. I think they should be favourite here.
Still thinking about the total in this one, there has been alot of money for the over.
Perth v Cairns under 189.5 1u
The highest score in a Cairns game this season is 185 and the average is 175. Perth are generally lower scoring than the average and don't mind a slower tempo.
This seems pretty obvious although Alan Black has been talking about scoring more points, but who doesn't want to score more points, doing it is harder than wanting to do it.
I have a bad feeling about this one but am taking it anyway. Wouldn't suprise me to see it land on 190.
Lot of people like the over but my feeling is both teams score in the 90s.
Last season by my calcs NZ averaged 108 at home and 97 on the road. This season they have only manged 100 once despite having played three uptempo teams WS, Townsville and Adelaide.
Singapore's defence is poor but NZ were a terrible road team road last season and i don't see why this would have changed.
Adding:
Singapore v NZ under 202.5 1u
Lot of people like the over but my feeling is both teams score in the 90s.
Last season by my calcs NZ averaged 108 at home and 97 on the road. This season they have only manged 100 once despite having played three uptempo teams WS, Townsville and Adelaide.
Singapore's defence is poor but NZ were a terrible road team road last season and i don't see why this would have changed.
Love em both
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