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NBL R21

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Posted: #1
YTD: 118-85  +32.0u
 
Not big on any of these, but have played them.
 
West Sydney +9.5  1u
I think this line would be about right if the game was in Perth, Perth hadn't travelled around the world a couple of times in the last 10 days and Rogers didn't have the flu.
 
West Sydney have been ordinairy in the second half of the season, but have put in a decent performance every few games such as when they were away to Melbourne a couple of weeks ago and lead for 90% of the match only to be overun in the final minutes and lose by 3. I think as usual they will need contributions from Hinson, Devries and Rush (who has a back injury but I believe he is playing) to keep it close.
 
Perth have alot to play for and may get an easy win, but my feeling is WS with nothing to lose may give a tired perth a run for their money.
 
Cairns -6  1u
Souths v Cairns under 196.5  1u
My numbers suggest Souths represent value and should only be getting a couple of points, but I can not buy into them. Cairns have too many quality players and too much to play for here. They have been inconsistent but have generally handled the weaker teams fairly easily, such as when they smashed Souths at home by 29.
 
History suggests the total is way too low with the last three between the two being 221, 215 and 218. Decided to go against this and have a ping on the under for a few reasons:
- since heal, the dragons leading scorer, stopped playing Souths scoring is down
- think Hendrix will have trouble scoring against Jawai
- reasonable chance Mee will be able to contain Cortez
- Jingles has been struggling
- not alot of offence amongst the others and there is some suggestion the bench will get more minutes to see if they can play
- if i was guy molloy and wanted the job next year one thing i would do to advance my cause is get the players to adopt the unusual strategy of playing some defence
- Cairns sit in eighth and need the win i think they will play defense
 
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Posted: #2
GL...nice hits to finish off the round last week!
 
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Posted: #3
good luck binomial..i got a lil on black groves over 33 combined..abney more pts than ingles and a lil on west sydney line
 
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Posted: #4
Taipans -5.5  Having the Cat back is big. Dragons have nothing to play for, not even pride. Heal does a runner. Probably the best that's happened to the team for a while.
 
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Posted: #5
didn't see this coming, taipans down bigtime early
 
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Posted: #6
Those Taipan fukers are always slow to start.You should see how sloppy and lethargic they are
 
 
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Posted: #7
 i doubt the taipans get back in this game
 
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Posted: #8
over looks fucked as well
 
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Posted: #9
Wonder if the scoreboard is wrong in the Cats game...
 
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Posted: #10
just when they tied it, they get outscored 12-5
 
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Posted: #11
YTD 120-86  +32.9u
 
Wish I trusted my numbers and believed in the dragons. If it wasn't for the dragons cairns would be up there for most disappointing team this season for mine. Cairns would be close to the most stacked team in nbl history, sure they have had injuries, but there is no way they have played any where near their potential.
 
After leading by 4 with about 5 mins to go WS nearly blew it last night.
 
NZ +4.5  1.5u
Wrong team favoured for mine. I have been trying to find a reason for this line but as far as I can tell everyone is playing for NZ including ronaldson. ronaldson is important in my opinion, he didn't play when they met a couple of weeks ago and makes a big dent in melbourne's size advantage. he made a decent contribution in his return last game.
 
Melbourne have shown glimpses of being a powerhouse but i don't think their form warrants their favouritism here.
 
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Posted: #12
You called the Breakers game right dead on
 
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Posted: #13
YTD: 121-86  +34.2u
 
Wollongong +8  1.5u
Wollongong ML $4 0.5u
Brisbane had an impressive away win against Melbourne a week or so ago, but this is their only win in their last five road games. They have injury problems with Boucher still out, CJ still has a sore ankle and supposedly Dusty Rychart is also carrying an injury.
 
They have little chance of getting second spot but by my reckoning have very little chance of slipping from third spot. They play Townsville tomorrow night.
 
Wollongong were ordinairy last week unable to stick with Sydney or Melbourne. They are 4-2 in their last 6 home games. They received the news earlier in the week that they will continue in the comp next season, my guess is that this will give them a boost and they will play hard for their home fans who have put money into the club, as they have most games this season.
 
My reckoning is this game is pretty close to pickem.
 
 
Gold Coast v Sydney over 192.5  1u
i think this is about 5 points too low. However, there will probably be about 100 3s taken in this game so as with most it will depend on whether the shooting is reasonable or not.
 
 
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Posted: #14
I think the Blaze Kings game will be UNDER 193.5. Both playoff teams will want to test each other out with playoff intensity. Not sure if the Kings will meet them down the track but they will want to make a statement early. This should be a defensive tussle and the Kings should prevail.
 
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Posted: #15
I don't like Gong. I know it's at home but still... they have a new sponsor. They are going to be trying new things and finding out who is part of their team next season. Hopefully that includes Saville back after a shocker with the Kings.

Blaze are in great form and Sydney play a defensive style. Unless they dominate like they did the Cats, I think this should go under. Defense dominates in important games.

You have been doing much better than me so because I disagree, it's a no bet for me... but good luck dude.
 
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Posted: #16
You both could be right about the under I might be on the wrong side there.
 
Sydney have passed 100 in 8 of their last 10 but most of these have been teams outside the top 8.
 
One counter point i will put forward in the spirit of debate (ie i don't believe it) is that greater defensive intensity could be matched by players taking their offence to another level. Harvey and Crowe's 3p shots are generally close to impossible to defend. Harvey is willing to shoot them going backwards and sideways, Crowe is willing to shoot from deep. So if they are on they can score regarless how solid the defence is.
 
That said if i could find 194.5 I would probaly close this out and dream of a middle after thinking about it some more. As 193.5 is the best i can see I will stick with it.
 
 
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Posted: #17
Yeah... I saw that Cats game where the cats were in control by about 6 all game then the shooting carried them across the line at the end... but that game still went under.

I'm just saying that I think these two are less reliable than your other bets. You have been great all season and I don't like going against you therefore the no bet.
 
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Posted: #18
Just got it at 191.5...GL binomial.
 
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Posted: #19
YTD: 121-89  +31.2u
 
Well off track last night, should have listened to my advisers. Wollongong dug a big hole in the first five minutes. Got about half way out a couple of times but fell back to the bottom.
 
Adelaide -4.5  1u
Adelaide v Cairns over 209.5  1.5u
Townsville -2  1u
Townsville v Brisbane over 214.5  1u
Wollongong +7  1u
 
 
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Posted: #20
Agree with both totals
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