NBL GF series

YTD: 138-107 +25.4u

 

Playoffs have been a disaster for me so far I am down about 10 units. I think my main mistake was to underestimate scheduling and the difficulty in backing up against a fresher team, plus I haven't been able to get any totals right to save myself. However, I don't seem to be alone here, bookmakers appear to have gotten the better of many of covers best.

 

Melbourne were better than I expected against Brisbane, playing well when it counts. However, Sydney have been the best team all season and according to my figures whether you look at it over the seaon or the last five games, Sydney's offence has been slightly better but their defence has been significantly better than Brisbane's.

 

Over a five game series with home court advantage I think Sydney should be around $1.50 so I am happy to take $1.77.

 

One down binomial...2 more to go, hope you finish on a good note, you deserve it, the finals haven't been good to you.

 Master Bin

Thanks guys. i like your new avatar jimmy.

 

game 2

 

Wrong team favoured for mine.

 

After Melbourne got some easy layups and hit several open 3s in q1 game 1 scoring 29, Sydney cranked up the defence and held them to 45 for the rest of the game.

 

Melbourne may be able to make adjustments and hit more open shots, but i find it hard to see the game opening up and becoming a high scoring 95+ each affair.

 

Wortho is unlikely to go 6/7 for again. Although I reckon Draper may make adjustments and score more points.

 

Quite like these bets and would play them for more units if I had not been on such a sour run.

Agree there binomial...really couldn't understand why the total is set so high, thats why I started a thread.

 

GL on your plays

Maybe the Tigers will try run it to try something different which would be a mistake

 

Don't expect Sydney to play a running style game to match. UNDER.

Agree on both counts mate. Probably stronger on the side than the total, but have locked them both in anyway. Kings would be gunning to win this so they can go home and seal the deal on Sunday. 

 

 

 

Let's get em

ecoute, i agree they may well try something different but if sydney get their defence turned up i think melbourne are in trouble whatever they do.

 

smith, kendall and draper plus the better sydney team defence are generally too strong for croswell and mcdonald to run the melbourne offence effectively. by the end of game 1 they had given up trying and were going one out unsuccessfully.

 

could look at DT or Hoare to run things more, but as you said it doesn't really seem like a smart time to make wholesale changes.

YTD: 138-109  23.4u

 

Mauled again, but at 80-80 at 8.40 mark of final quarter and 1 point only scored for the quarter, both were a chance. then the tech foul on crosswhite changed the game, melbourne started scoring while sydney remained in a funk.

 

All of Melbourne starters played well in game 2. Crosswell had 8 assists while the others all scored around 20. Barlow in particular shooting 9/11 including 4/5 3s was very impressive.

 

Melbourne also played much better defence in the second half holding Sydney to 36 after giving up 57 in the first.

 

Sydney know they need to play better defence to win this and Melbourne seemed to have worked out how to defend Sydney better. I am betting on this being a defensive struggle. 

With you again mate

YTD: 139-109  +24.8u

 

- Kings short on numbers with Draper and Hinder reportedly out may slow the pace a bit.

- games have been high scoring early slowing to a crawl in the fourth quarter as players tighten up. With bigger stakes i think things could be tighter earlier.

- players like Barlowe, Anstey, Worthington and Smith have been hitting alot of big shots, my feeling is that some poorer shooting is overdue.

 

 

Melbourne -3 looks great value with Draper out. However, I have a bit of bad feeling about it. May still play it.

YTD: 140-109  +26.6u

 

Bit worried about fouling in the last minute or two regardless of score, otherwise would play more. Pressure plus tiredness should lead to some ordinairy shooting.

 

 

Also have 3 units on Sydney still. Thought ablut hedging a bit as I think the odds on Melbourne are generous, but probably won't.

Final score: 141-110  +24.5u