NBL FW2

YTD: 137-100  +32.5   (includes unit on Townsville to win it all)

 

Christians v lions continues with Perth sent to take on the Kings on two days rest. I got mauled in week 1 underestimating the physical and mental fatigue of playing on one days rest after a final, plus falling for the lure of big starts.

 

Both Townsville and NZ came out on fire for about 10 minutes then fell in a big hole struggling to run any team offence and struggling to hit open shots when they got them.

 

Perth do have an extra days rest than crocs and nz and are probably more used to the travel than most. However, even without the tiredness factor I think Sydney deserve to be big favourites. Perth beat them in Sydney but Sydney lead by about a dozen with a couple of minutes to go then fell asleep. Perth's offence was looking pretty ordinairy for mine against Townsville apart from the last quarter when the sting was out of the game. Sydney's defence is usually several rungs better than Townsville's.

 

Also jumping on the under band wagon as I reckon this will be low scoring unless the shooting is hot.

 

Yep Master Bin, I like the under as well. But the total line is abit too low, in case if the score was tight, and they start foul play 2mins before the FT, over might hit.

 go the mighty kings

 

 

YTD: 137-102  +29.5u

 

My freefall continues.

 

I have not been convinced by Melbourne this season. In general they have usually handled the weaker teams fairly easily but often struggled against the other top teams.

 

Brisbane have beat them twice this season, however their form on the road in general has been ordinairy. I like the chances of this being close and wouldn't be suprised if Brisbane get the win.

 

Sydney are deep and have able replacements but it is hard to believe that losing what some people consider an MVP candidate will not have an impact. I think Perth should be favoured with Worthington out.

GL binomial.....no more free falling

some talk redhage is out with concussion, followed by some other talk that this was just to try and get worthington suspended. If he is out I would switch to being on Sydney even at something like -5.

 

Shooting was very good and defence lacking in parts last night, mainly in the first quarter. Think the chances are that defence will pick up and shooting drop off. Similar to what happened in Sydney and Perth series.

YTD: 138-105  +27.4u

 

With the exception of the blow out when Perth had played 4 games in 7 days, games this season have been close. Im willing to bet it will at least be close again.

 

Risks are that Perth are tired as starters played alot of minutes on Wednesday and will have to again given they will only effectively have a bench of 3 with Shipp not playing (more like 2 as im not sure how keen i would be to put hunt in given how he has been playing). Given Sydney will be back to full strength could be a factor late.

 

Laughton has been poor offensively and I think he may be a key tonight if he can get it going as I think Sydney will increase the defensive focus on Redhage, possibly creating opportunities for him.

 

Perth have won by 3 and lost by 3 in Sydney so far, so getting 8.5 is hard to turn up.

 

 

MasterBin