Monday Netball

Steel +2 vs Mystics

 

Swifts to beat Thunderbirds ($1.70)

 

 

I was thinking:

Winner likely to make finals, loser with work to do. So I think it will be tight and defensive. Swifts high scoring but thunderbirds have only been over this number twice all season. 50-44 last time.

Both teams playing better of late and not much between them. I thought home court should make Mystics favourite by about 5.

Thing that swayed me to the Steel, bino, was the fact they have it all to play for, whereas the Mystics can start planning for next season.

 

mystics kinda threw the kitchen sink at a couple of very good opponents the last couple of weeks and came up just short. At 3-7 it's now academic for them. Steel though are in a must-win scenario

I like your take on that total, and it's funny how a lot of teams have tightened up scoring wise through this final third of the season, after a slew of high scoring "overs" through that middle third.

I see your point, but, although i haven't gone through it thoroughly it looks a pretty slim chance they make it even if they win their last 3 because of their goal difference.

 

quick look suggests two australian sides have to finish 8-5 because they play each other and someone has to win. therefore steel needs to win all three and make up about 50 in goal difference which seems unlikely given they play magic and firebirds in the last two rounds.

 

however, you could be right that they are clinging to the possibility rather running the numbers.

yeah, I got a bit sweet on the steel when first saw the prices come out and as the ladder stood before the round began, but you're right, with the firebirds winning yesterday it does look a really tall order for the steel with other results really needing to go heavily their way as well.

i think my suggestion was wrong - if thunderbirds win tonight then beat firebirds it is possible for two of the australian teams to finish on 7. however, the chance of both swifts and firebirds losing their last 3 is fairly slim for mine.

 

i was thinking looking at the referees is likely to give you an edge with the totals. some of them seem to believe it is not possible for the offensive player to commit a foul. there seems to be numerous instances where the defensive player has a half step better position but stil gets called for the foul. whereas some refs call quite a lot of stuff on the shooters, like yesterday in the firebirds game when i was on the over.

i've added the over in the steel v mystics match, two teams in good form should be end to end, plus the mystics should play with plenty of freedom given their finals hopes are shot