Hendy's AFL Round 1 - Second half

Not enough football and too much time means long write ups. At the moment, I've got bets until Saturday. The other games will depend on the named teams.


Carlton vs Richmond
Mick has the blues firing up to proove something to the new coach. They have more quality mids but struggle with key position players. With Kruze, they should have an advantage.
Richmond have Cotch, Delids and a number of decent mids (like Grigg and Tuck) but not the same quality. They do have better players down the spine.
This game can go anywhere. I'm not touching it. Even the total is hard to pick but I would say the game is about 190 because it is at the MCG.

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane
Doggies look shocking this year. They have no key forwards of worth. They just won't score enough. Doubts on Cooney and Boyd out, I can't see how you can go with the doggies for this one.
Brissy won the NAB and are in good form. The focal point of JBrown will be a key advantage.

Played Brissy (I got -17.5)
I think anything up to 30 points is decent value.

Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney
This has to be the mismatch of the round. I know the teams haven't been posted yet. I expect Mumford not to play. I expect the weather to be good.
I have NO IDEA why the line isn't 60+ points.
Sydney are a professional team. They know that this 4 points is as important as any other. They know big wins help percentage and it doesn't matter which round it is. If Sydney win by anything less than 60 points, it is a loss.

Sydney -47.5 BIG
I also have a couple of small bets on Sydney -70 (which I think is where the line should be)

Gold Coast vs St Kilda
Only 25.5 points is showing how much the Saints are struggling. Gold Coast don't have a way to kick a winning score.
The Saints SHOULD cover but I don't trust 'em.

Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
Wow. This game could go anywhere. Both teams are OK over the ground with no clear advantage.
I know Port has been OK in the NAB but I wouldn't expect them to win at the MCG. I would have had the line at 2 goals.

North Melbourne vs Collingwood
Should be a cracker. Very much like the Thursday night game. Jack Frost should debut to steady up the backline.   
Not sure what North will do with their rucks. Goldy probably needs Currie to support but they could go with Majak as another forward to stretch the Pie tall backmen.
There are many unknowns in this game but the Pies mids should determine the outcome. I think the Pies should win by 5 goals.

Hawthorn vs Geelong
Geelong lost Stevie J. I would have moved the line to 3 goals but it also depends on the named teams. HMac and Stevie J out are bit.
I think the Hawks should control the game and win by 4 or more goals.


Have a safe Easter all 

Plays

  Brissy -20.5
  Sydney -47.5

and a small play on Sydney first half by 37+, Wildcats ML, Brissy -20.5 @ 6.9

Leans

  Melb
  Pies
  Hawks

Nice write up, Agree Thursday is a stay away, the strange game is he GC vs saints... Line is begging for saints money which makes me wanna go the other way

I could not put money on GC. I would prefer the under.
My take on the Sydney line is they think that Sydney are not ready. They often start a season slowly but I still don't understand why it is so far off.

Small under 1H for Thursday night. I expect them to be a bit rusty to start and expect the total to be 185.

Unlucky on the U95 1H. Yet another reason to dislike Carlton. They can't even kick out properly.

..and that Yarran (non) goal cancelled out the JRoo goal at the end of the first. Good job by Tigers backers.

Some things stay the same... Blues are up and down and the Tigers try to lose. I won't trust either team for a while.

Good to see the Cats and Breakers have solid wins. I had some small bets on them at the line so I am slightly ahead even with the AFL loss. The lines will be interesting in the away games. If the home lines are 12, the away lines should be tempting.

What's so GOOD about Good Friday when there is no footy on.