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50th Daytona 500: Odds and Betting Analysis
So does Junior want it or what?
Fan favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has shrugged off an 0-62 losing streak like last year’s ugly red fire-retardant suit to go 2-2 at SpeedWeeks with his new team, Hendrick Motorsports, winning both the Budweiser Shootout and Gatorade 150 and earning an eerie No. 3 spot in the grid for the Daytona 500, putting HMS in two of the top three spots. However, no driver has ever won the Budweiser Shootout, Gatorade 150 and the Daytona 500.
Sports investment powerhouse Sportsbook.com has posted odds on the Great American Race and set Dale Earnhardt, Jr., holder of a spank new green and white No. 88 ride, as the 5/1 favorite for the 50th running of the Daytona 500 this Sunday at 3 p.m. as NASCAR revs up the 2008 Sprint Cup season going “Back-to-Basics” with a new Cup sponsor and the so-called Car-of-Tomorrow. Last year’s Nextel Cup winner, pole-sitter, Jimmie Johnson, is the second favorite at 6/1.
The top 35 drivers in owner points from last year will draft it out across the 2.5 mile Super-Speedway that is the Daytona 500 field; some of the fiercest and most exciting competition with some of the closest finishes in all stock car racing. Additionally, the two highest finishers from the Duel 150s during SpeedWeeks, who are not already in the race, are entered. Finally, four other cars who have not previously qualified are selected based upon qualifying times with the 43rd position going to a past champion. This year there are three past champions outside the top 35 must race their way into the 500 on Thursday, unfortunately for Kurt Busch he wasn’t one of them.
Every year before the season starts I like to put down a future wager on who will win the Cup. Last year I had Jeff Gordon and despite my keen interest in wagering each week on NASCAR, I new I had an open ticket for the entire season. If you are interested in wagering on the outcome of the 2008 Sprint Cup Chase Sportsbook.com has listed odds for your favorite driver. At 4/1 Jimmie Johnson looks a bit too convenient to win his third Cup in a row. Or does he? The last driver to win three consecutive Cup titles in a row was Cale Yarborough about 30 years ago. Jimmie Johnson backed by Hendrick Motorsports is, in my mind, until proven otherwise, the driver and the team to beat, in the Car of Today.
Who will win the 50th Daytona 500?
It is all well and good that Johnson is backed by the best team in racing today, but what shouldn’t be understated is how well he handles the Car of Tomorrow. Looking at the numbers Johnson has been dominant in 16 CoT starts last year. He boasted five wins, the most of any driver, and a 6.9 average finish second behind Jeff Gordon.
Speaking of the youngest person to win at Daytona, Jeff Gordon, let’s not forget about him and his ability to turn driver’s mistakes into his advantage. Gordon will have extra incentive this year as he lost the chase to Johnson; despite the fact he had more wins and was the points leader going into the final ten Chase races last year. Keep in mind that Gordon had 30 top ten finishes last year; the most of his entire career. Does this mean Gordon is getting better with age? The fact remains that every time Gordon gets behind the wheel he can win the race. What better way to tell a sponsor I love you than to win The Great American Race for them.
As if HMS wasn’t loaded with enough talent. They got rid of Kyle Busch and took on Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in the off-season as his painful divorce from DEI mercifully ended uneventfully last November as he ended the season 16th in the final Cup points standings. Given all the tools to succeed, now, Junior has run out of excuses and if his performances at the Budweiser Shootout and Gatorade 150 Duel are any indication Junior is playing for keeps. But there is a big difference between a Shootout back-up car and the Daytona 500 car. If you are the superstitious type you should know that in 29 years the winner of the Shootout has only gone on to win Daytona 5 times. Besides, the other drivers in Hendrick Motorsports are going to push him to a win on Sunday.
The Daytona 500 defending champ is Kevin Harvick who, despite winning the 500 last year had a disappointing Chase for the Cup and ended up finishing 10th in the point standings. Granted Richard Childress Racing’s Harvick had to endure problem tires as his grips blew in three Chase races, but another problem was that his team’s CoT were not as fast as other teams and we’ll see if this trend continues into the new season. The good news for RCR is that Harvick looks to have a year like he did in 2006 when he won five races and finished in fourth place in the Cup.
Another driver to consider this year is the mercurial Kyle Busch in the No. 18 car. Busch has been kicked out of HMS and now returns to Sprint Cup with a bigger chip on his should than he had before as he mounts a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. Busch had limited success in 2007 as he only won one race but that was then and this is now. Perhaps the gutsy, yet abrasive, Kyle Busch can bring some harmony into Gibbs’ stable of feuding talent. Is it too much to expect Busch to win Daytona in his first race for JGR? Most likely, but keep an eye on Kyle as the season progresses because with a new team and one of the fastest car manufacturers on the track, Toyota, don’t be surprised to see him in the Chase for the Cup.
One last driver worth mentioning is Michael Waltrip who ended last year in 44th place in his 22nd Cup season. Worse was that he was embarrassed himself and Toyota in their inaugural NASCAR year at last year’s Daytona 500 for cheating. This year, Waltrip in the No. 55 Toyota was the second fastest at the Pole Qualifiers and will start from the outside of the front row next to Jimmie Johnson, the defending Nextel Cup champion.
Gamblers interested in backing Jimmie Johnson should note that in the 50 years they have raced at Daytona the pole sitter has won only nine times. The last driver to accomplish this feat was Dale Jarrett in 2000; other winners include Jeff Gordon in 1999, Bill Elliott in 1987, 1985, Buddy Baker in 1980, Cale Yarborough 1984, 1968, Richard Petty in 1966 and Fireball Roberts in 1962. Ugh, make that ten times.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
50th Daytona 500 Match-ups
Sportsbook.com has a variety of propositions as well as match-ups on the 50th Daytona 500. I have included a few match-ups that I think should be profitable this Sunday. I am going to play one unit per play to start off one of the longest season in professional sports.
Tony Stewart (-110)/Jimmie Johnson (-120)
Stewart has a lot of things going against him this season and he didn’t make things any easier on himself by being placed on a six race probation along with Kurt Busch for an altercation the two drivers had on the track at the Budweiser Shoot-Out last Friday night. In the off-season Stewart grew his hair and has vowed not to have another slow start to the season. Joe Gibbs Racing also decided to go with Toyota and got rid of Chevy as the team’s manufacturer. So far it looks like Toyota won’t be the whipping boy of NASCAR this year as Toyota place three cars in the top five at the Pole Qualifiers. Consider, though, Stewart is 0-9 at Daytona and had a hard time against Johnson in CoT races last year. As for Johnson he is as good as any driving the CoT and Daytona should be no different; of course being the pole-sitter also helps make my decision that much easier. Johnson dusted the field in winning the pole; the only driver to hit 187 mph as he circumnavigated the track in a blistering 48.109 seconds. If qualifiers are a harbinger of what will
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