Posted:
#1
Ronde van Vlaanderen
Again like MSR, I have a writeup. But not a very big one. I'm just going to evaluate again the riders I think have a chance.
Tom Boonen
Current Odds: $3.50/$1.70
Tommeke has been building his form up specifically for Flanders and Roubaix. However he isn't looking quite himself.
He got beaten by Pozzato earier in the week. Again, he said he was just building up his form. But the way Pozzato
won was excellent. Boonen is a main threat. Only has 2 wins to his name this year. The last fortnight he has picked
up a first a second and a third in different races.
Fillipo Pozzato
Current Odds: $6.50/$2.35
Pozzato after a slow start to the year has finally found his form. He was second in the Trofeo Laigueglia.
He won over the last week the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen beating Tom Boonen and also won the first stage of the three
days of de panne. Pozzato can climb and he is a solid classics rider. If anyone can upset Boonen it is this man.
He is a huge chance.
Heinrich Haussler
Current Odds: $9/$3
Haussler is having his best season to date as mentioned a few weeks ago. A bunch of wins this year already and a lot
of podium finishes. He can second in MSR and was unlucky not to win that race being beaten by the fastest man
in the world in the last metre. He has a strong team and will be looking to breakthrough.
Stijn Devolder
Current Odds: $13/$4
Devolder is Boonen's teammate but again a quality rider. Whilst he is not known for sprinting, Quick-Step have an
ace up their sleeve. If Pozzato and Haussler are too busy watching Boonen, someone like Devolder can take off in a small group and will be hard to run down. He is the defending champion so will be wanting to give a good site but the main objective for him will be helping Boonen.
Nick Nuyens
Current Odds: $16/$4.75
The Rabobank rider is not without a chance. He came second last year behind Devolder and in 2002 won the U23 Ronde Van Vlaanderen. Again with the right breakaway the guy is a chance. Anything can happen in a race like this. If this is not a bunch sprint, he'll be up there. Guaranteed.
Sylvain Chavanel
Current Odds: $17/$5
See Nuyens and Devolder. A breakaway chance in the right move. Again is a team-mate of Boonen and Devolder and another ace up quick-steps sleeve.
Leif Hoste
Current Odds: $17/$5
Team Silence lotto has been underfire all year. They have only posted one win through Cadel Evans and I don't
know how they managed that consider he is a wheel sucking wanker. They can't get things together.
They are in desperate need of a salvo. Hoste could be the person to save them and give them their first big win
of the year. He is a 3 time runner up in this event in 04, 06 and 07. Could go one better with the right move.
George Hincape
Current Odds: $22/$6.25
See again Devolder and the others who are a breakaway chance. Will be wanting to put his form together for Roubaix.
Greg Van Avermaet
Current Odds: $22/$6.25
Silence Lotto have been under the pump as I mentioned with Hoste. He is one of their trumps.
Phillipe Gilbert
Current Odds: $22/$6.25
Gilbert is the third trump up Lotto's sleeves. Can break away and has won big races in the past.
Marcus Burghardt
Current Odds: $25/$7
Again another trump from Team Columbia. Could be one to surprise in a right break.
Thor Hushovd
Current Odds: $30/$8.50
Hushovd has had a mixed year and has been under the radar because the focus is on his team-mate Haussler. If Haussler is a marked man, he can get up and take a sprint and surprise everyone. Do not count him out but he is doubtful. He has posted a first in stage 3 of the Tour of California. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad a few weeks back and came third in MSR. Can figure and can climb.
Daniele Bennati
Current Odds: $40/$11
Again don't write him off. Has posted a few wins and a few podiums this year. But this might be beyond him but can surprise if a bunch sprint occurs.
Other long shot chances include Quinziato @ $80, Leukemans @ $80. Arvesen @ $60 All 3 could surprise with the right moves.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what do I reckon?
Well my writeup says it all. I think it is going to be a bunch sprint this year and it could go anyway. Truth be told I was
edging Boonen to win this the last few weeks but the emergence of Pozzato's form has put me on the back step. I think Pozzato
will win this and Haussler will be bridesmaid again like MSR. Boonen will battle out third with Hushovd.
I will also say that Burghardt will try to attack for Columbia, Devolder will try for quickstep. Hoste will be Silence Lotto's man
and Nuyens will ride strong for Rabobank. All will try desisive attacks but I think the sprinters take the event this year.
1st: Pozzato
2nd: Haussler
3rd: Boonen
Therefore my plays are the following. As I think any of these riders can win. This guy has let me down before but I trust him.
His form has given me much needed confidence in backing him again.
1 unit on Pozzato to win @ $6.50
5 units on Pozzato to place @ $2.35
5 units on Haussler's postition to be under 9.5 @ $1.72
.5 units E/W on Hoste @ $17/$5 - He is my cover incase the break succeeds.
Total units staked - 12
Good luck!
Again like MSR, I have a writeup. But not a very big one. I'm just going to evaluate again the riders I think have a chance.
Tom Boonen
Current Odds: $3.50/$1.70
Tommeke has been building his form up specifically for Flanders and Roubaix. However he isn't looking quite himself.
He got beaten by Pozzato earier in the week. Again, he said he was just building up his form. But the way Pozzato
won was excellent. Boonen is a main threat. Only has 2 wins to his name this year. The last fortnight he has picked
up a first a second and a third in different races.
Fillipo Pozzato
Current Odds: $6.50/$2.35
Pozzato after a slow start to the year has finally found his form. He was second in the Trofeo Laigueglia.
He won over the last week the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen beating Tom Boonen and also won the first stage of the three
days of de panne. Pozzato can climb and he is a solid classics rider. If anyone can upset Boonen it is this man.
He is a huge chance.
Heinrich Haussler
Current Odds: $9/$3
Haussler is having his best season to date as mentioned a few weeks ago. A bunch of wins this year already and a lot
of podium finishes. He can second in MSR and was unlucky not to win that race being beaten by the fastest man
in the world in the last metre. He has a strong team and will be looking to breakthrough.
Stijn Devolder
Current Odds: $13/$4
Devolder is Boonen's teammate but again a quality rider. Whilst he is not known for sprinting, Quick-Step have an
ace up their sleeve. If Pozzato and Haussler are too busy watching Boonen, someone like Devolder can take off in a small group and will be hard to run down. He is the defending champion so will be wanting to give a good site but the main objective for him will be helping Boonen.
Nick Nuyens
Current Odds: $16/$4.75
The Rabobank rider is not without a chance. He came second last year behind Devolder and in 2002 won the U23 Ronde Van Vlaanderen. Again with the right breakaway the guy is a chance. Anything can happen in a race like this. If this is not a bunch sprint, he'll be up there. Guaranteed.
Sylvain Chavanel
Current Odds: $17/$5
See Nuyens and Devolder. A breakaway chance in the right move. Again is a team-mate of Boonen and Devolder and another ace up quick-steps sleeve.
Leif Hoste
Current Odds: $17/$5
Team Silence lotto has been underfire all year. They have only posted one win through Cadel Evans and I don't
know how they managed that consider he is a wheel sucking wanker. They can't get things together.
They are in desperate need of a salvo. Hoste could be the person to save them and give them their first big win
of the year. He is a 3 time runner up in this event in 04, 06 and 07. Could go one better with the right move.
George Hincape
Current Odds: $22/$6.25
See again Devolder and the others who are a breakaway chance. Will be wanting to put his form together for Roubaix.
Greg Van Avermaet
Current Odds: $22/$6.25
Silence Lotto have been under the pump as I mentioned with Hoste. He is one of their trumps.
Phillipe Gilbert
Current Odds: $22/$6.25
Gilbert is the third trump up Lotto's sleeves. Can break away and has won big races in the past.
Marcus Burghardt
Current Odds: $25/$7
Again another trump from Team Columbia. Could be one to surprise in a right break.
Thor Hushovd
Current Odds: $30/$8.50
Hushovd has had a mixed year and has been under the radar because the focus is on his team-mate Haussler. If Haussler is a marked man, he can get up and take a sprint and surprise everyone. Do not count him out but he is doubtful. He has posted a first in stage 3 of the Tour of California. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad a few weeks back and came third in MSR. Can figure and can climb.
Daniele Bennati
Current Odds: $40/$11
Again don't write him off. Has posted a few wins and a few podiums this year. But this might be beyond him but can surprise if a bunch sprint occurs.
Other long shot chances include Quinziato @ $80, Leukemans @ $80. Arvesen @ $60 All 3 could surprise with the right moves.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what do I reckon?
Well my writeup says it all. I think it is going to be a bunch sprint this year and it could go anyway. Truth be told I was
edging Boonen to win this the last few weeks but the emergence of Pozzato's form has put me on the back step. I think Pozzato
will win this and Haussler will be bridesmaid again like MSR. Boonen will battle out third with Hushovd.
I will also say that Burghardt will try to attack for Columbia, Devolder will try for quickstep. Hoste will be Silence Lotto's man
and Nuyens will ride strong for Rabobank. All will try desisive attacks but I think the sprinters take the event this year.
1st: Pozzato
2nd: Haussler
3rd: Boonen
Therefore my plays are the following. As I think any of these riders can win. This guy has let me down before but I trust him.
His form has given me much needed confidence in backing him again.
1 unit on Pozzato to win @ $6.50
5 units on Pozzato to place @ $2.35
5 units on Haussler's postition to be under 9.5 @ $1.72
.5 units E/W on Hoste @ $17/$5 - He is my cover incase the break succeeds.
Total units staked - 12
Good luck!
.
. Your matchup play ended up being very solid with Maaskant finishing up in 5th. You refer to the people that you work with. Do you mean people in the handicapping business? Your record is quite remarkable when it comes to looking for value and analysing the race. Keep up the great work 
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