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    All Forums | Other

    Cats, Dogs and bookies mindgames

    Aussieguy
    ecoute
    Miracle1976
    claycourtlesson
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posts: 18
     
    Aussieguy
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 7:44 AM ET #1

    Being the degenerate that I am, I always enjoy researching the stats and figures prior to Friday night footy as well as after Sunday night footy. Just seeing how everyone faired is very intruiging to me; Hopefully some of you find this kind of stuff  interesting too! We're talking AFL here - Australian Rules Football 
     
    The books raked in the dough, as the Tigers pumped the pathetic Eagles. West Coast opened at $2.07 and were backed down to $1.72, which is a pretty dramatic move if you follow the books closely! Sportsbet took a bet of 100k at $1.80, and Flemington took a couple of 20 grand bets on the Eagles. Needless to say all three of the above got nailed by the wingless Eagles. However, there was a lucky punter who saw the opportunity and jumped on the Tigers drifting from $1.80 to $2.25 and plonked 30 grand at $2.25. He was a very happy bloke by the end of the Eagles-Tigers match.  
     
    Next week we've got a  sold out blockbuster b/w the Cats and the Doggies. The books are taking a gamble themselves on the depleted Cats and they have 'em as fat as $1.49 favourites, with the Doggies being only $2.50 dogs!! Obviously the bookies are playing on Cameron Ling and G. Ablett's injuries. But not all the sportbooks view this match up the same way. with  Flemington and TAB still favouring the Cats at a $1.33, and the Dogs going down to $1.95. Furthermore, the game being at Skilled Stadium gives Geelong quite an edge in this amazing match up, which should be a ripsnorter to watch
     
    Perhaps, we should just pass on the Cats n Dogs quarrel and find some value on the Tigers-Bombers match which all of a sudden has been overshadowed by the sold out clash at Skilled Stadium. If the Tigers beat Essendon, they're on the verge of making the top eight. Essendon too, is another contender, as are the Crows, the Lions and the Blues too. 
    Obviously some great matches coming up next week and plenty of opportunities for the punters too ...
    Cheers and good luck everyone   
     
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Being the degenerate that I am, I always enjoy researching the stats and figures prior to Friday night footy as well as after Sunday night footy. Just seeing how everyone faired is very intruiging to me; Hopefully some of you find this kind of stuff  interesting too! We're talking AFL here - Australian Rules Football 
     
    The books raked in the dough, as the Tigers pumped the pathetic Eagles. West Coast opened at $2.07 and were backed down to $1.72, which is a pretty dramatic move if you follow the books closely! Sportsbet took a bet of 100k at $1.80, and Flemington took a couple of 20 grand bets on the Eagles. Needless to say all three of the above got nailed by the wingless Eagles. However, there was a lucky punter who saw the opportunity and jumped on the Tigers drifting from $1.80 to $2.25 and plonked 30 grand at $2.25. He was a very happy bloke by the end of the Eagles-Tigers match.  
     
    Next week we've got a  sold out blockbuster b/w the Cats and the Doggies. The books are taking a gamble themselves on the depleted Cats and they have 'em as fat as $1.49 favourites, with the Doggies being only $2.50 dogs!! Obviously the bookies are playing on Cameron Ling and G. Ablett's injuries. But not all the sportbooks view this match up the same way. with  Flemington and TAB still favouring the Cats at a $1.33, and the Dogs going down to $1.95. Furthermore, the game being at Skilled Stadium gives Geelong quite an edge in this amazing match up, which should be a ripsnorter to watch
     
    Perhaps, we should just pass on the Cats n Dogs quarrel and find some value on the Tigers-Bombers match which all of a sudden has been overshadowed by the sold out clash at Skilled Stadium. If the Tigers beat Essendon, they're on the verge of making the top eight. Essendon too, is another contender, as are the Crows, the Lions and the Blues too. 
    Obviously some great matches coming up next week and plenty of opportunities for the punters too ...
    Cheers and good luck everyone   
     
     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 7:54 AM ET #2

    I reckon Abblett will play. I wouldn't be suprised if Ling makes it either.
     
    Looking at the UNDER depending on what the total comes out as. The temptation would be to take the OVER but (depnding on the total) this game stinks of UNDERS......... anything above 221 and above.
    Reply
    I reckon Abblett will play. I wouldn't be suprised if Ling makes it either.
     
    Looking at the UNDER depending on what the total comes out as. The temptation would be to take the OVER but (depnding on the total) this game stinks of UNDERS......... anything above 221 and above.
     
    Aussieguy
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 8:10 AM ET #3

    Have to agree on that ecoute.  There'll be no plenty of goals galore there. I think tackles should be the name of that game. Plenty of handpasses and short kicks too. Ugly defensive play I reckon. Goals should be far and few in between.
    Smart bet mate
    Reply
    Have to agree on that ecoute.  There'll be no plenty of goals galore there. I think tackles should be the name of that game. Plenty of handpasses and short kicks too. Ugly defensive play I reckon. Goals should be far and few in between.
    Smart bet mate
     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 8:26 AM ET #4

    Disagree there guys...this will be a 'fairly' high scoring game, and also with Ablett playing (Ling won't), then the Cats still have a significant experience and body strength advanatge here.  Cats will be looking forward to this challenge, and I see them winning by 30-40 points....Dogs are 'ok' but they are still 2-3 years off where the Cats are at at the moment...with the Hawks 1-2 years off where the Cats are also at at the moment 
    Reply
    Disagree there guys...this will be a 'fairly' high scoring game, and also with Ablett playing (Ling won't), then the Cats still have a significant experience and body strength advanatge here.  Cats will be looking forward to this challenge, and I see them winning by 30-40 points....Dogs are 'ok' but they are still 2-3 years off where the Cats are at at the moment...with the Hawks 1-2 years off where the Cats are also at at the moment 
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 8:58 AM ET #5

    Only time I ever even consider betting the Western outfit is when they are dogs.
     
    So the "Dogs" are only 2.50 at Skilled?  Books making it easy for public to pile on Geelong...............
    Reply
    Only time I ever even consider betting the Western outfit is when they are dogs.
     
    So the "Dogs" are only 2.50 at Skilled?  Books making it easy for public to pile on Geelong...............
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 3:59 PM ET #6

    So far, without doing any heavy research, one wager stands out MASSIVELY to me.

    $2.25 for a Hawks/Swans double.

    Hawks should easily brush aside a resurgent Saints side who hasn't quite gotten to that level yet.  Swans should beat the Blues, but the TD favors the Blues style of play.

    Again, haven't looked into it fully yet, but at $2.25 for a Hawks/Swans double against the Saints and Blues, we might be on to something here.

    Anyone have anything to say against this wager from the perspective of a Tuesday afternoon?

    Cheers!
    Reply
    So far, without doing any heavy research, one wager stands out MASSIVELY to me.

    $2.25 for a Hawks/Swans double.

    Hawks should easily brush aside a resurgent Saints side who hasn't quite gotten to that level yet.  Swans should beat the Blues, but the TD favors the Blues style of play.

    Again, haven't looked into it fully yet, but at $2.25 for a Hawks/Swans double against the Saints and Blues, we might be on to something here.

    Anyone have anything to say against this wager from the perspective of a Tuesday afternoon?

    Cheers!
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 4:02 PM ET #7

    Buchanan out (suspension) for the Swans for rough conduct against the Hawks.
    Reply
    Buchanan out (suspension) for the Swans for rough conduct against the Hawks.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2008 - 4:06 PM ET #8

    Kennelly supposedly in the side for now against the Blues.
    Reply
    Kennelly supposedly in the side for now against the Blues.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2008 - 3:20 PM ET #9

    Out-of-favour Swans forward Nick Davis, who was likely to make a return from the lower grade against Carlton on Sunday, dislocated his knee at the weekend, ending his season.
    Reply
    Out-of-favour Swans forward Nick Davis, who was likely to make a return from the lower grade against Carlton on Sunday, dislocated his knee at the weekend, ending his season.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2008 - 3:20 PM ET #10

    Sorry for hijacking the thread Aussieguy....I just realized it. 
    Reply
    Sorry for hijacking the thread Aussieguy....I just realized it. 
     
    hansivonmueller
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2008 - 11:31 PM ET #11

    Can't wait for the Cats n Dogs game. Feel Geelong will make a statement and play an exceptional game. Doggies have been resilient, but now they face the acid test. This is just an intuitive feeling, as I know 3/5 of dick all regarding Aussie Rules.
    Reply
    Can't wait for the Cats n Dogs game. Feel Geelong will make a statement and play an exceptional game. Doggies have been resilient, but now they face the acid test. This is just an intuitive feeling, as I know 3/5 of dick all regarding Aussie Rules.
     
    Aussieguy
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    Posted: Jul. 16, 2008 - 6:33 AM ET #12

    Nah, it's a good 'intuitive feeling' hansivon. The books as well as the media are making too much of the Geelong "outs". I don't think the books are making as much as the media is though.
    Their line of thinking at the moment is that the Doggie ball magnet i.e. Adam Cooney will be running around unchecked, and Jimmy Bartel will be locked down!!!
    The game is at Skilled, 95% being all Cats supporters. It'll be like going to Adelaide and we all know how tough it is winning in those stadiums.
    Reply
    Nah, it's a good 'intuitive feeling' hansivon. The books as well as the media are making too much of the Geelong "outs". I don't think the books are making as much as the media is though.
    Their line of thinking at the moment is that the Doggie ball magnet i.e. Adam Cooney will be running around unchecked, and Jimmy Bartel will be locked down!!!
    The game is at Skilled, 95% being all Cats supporters. It'll be like going to Adelaide and we all know how tough it is winning in those stadiums.
     
    Coondawg71
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2008 - 6:09 PM ET #13

    Aussie,  is Cooney a common name in Australia???
    Reply
    Aussie,  is Cooney a common name in Australia???
     
    Aussieguy
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2008 - 10:05 PM ET #14

    As a matter of fact I think it is Coondawg! I know a few of them, but the other Aussies here can correct me if I'm wrong
     
    Very weird betting pattern in this game this arvo - Loads of $$$$ coming in on the Dogs ML, and stacks of $$$$ coming in for the Cats -13.5! The totals has come down to 184 too! 
    Reply
    As a matter of fact I think it is Coondawg! I know a few of them, but the other Aussies here can correct me if I'm wrong
     
    Very weird betting pattern in this game this arvo - Loads of $$$$ coming in on the Dogs ML, and stacks of $$$$ coming in for the Cats -13.5! The totals has come down to 184 too! 
     
    rod_steel
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2008 - 10:15 PM ET #15

    Bombers line down to +6.5
    Reply
    Bombers line down to +6.5
     
    Aussieguy
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2008 - 10:25 PM ET #16

    Are you having a crack at Bombers - Tiges, Cobber???
    Reply
    Are you having a crack at Bombers - Tiges, Cobber???
     
    dananderson32
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2008 - 10:41 PM ET #17

    LETS GO DOGGIESSSS
    Reply
    LETS GO DOGGIESSSS
     
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2008 - 12:43 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by Aussieguy:

    As a matter of fact I think it is Coondawg! I know a few of them, but the other Aussies here can correct me if I'm wrong
     
    Very weird betting pattern in this game this arvo - Loads of $$$$ coming in on the Dogs ML, and stacks of $$$$ coming in for the Cats -13.5! The totals has come down to 184 too! 


    Yep, mentioned that in my thread and that is why a Cats win/Dogs cover makes the books smile.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Aussieguy:

    As a matter of fact I think it is Coondawg! I know a few of them, but the other Aussies here can correct me if I'm wrong
     
    Very weird betting pattern in this game this arvo - Loads of $$$$ coming in on the Dogs ML, and stacks of $$$$ coming in for the Cats -13.5! The totals has come down to 184 too! 


    Yep, mentioned that in my thread and that is why a Cats win/Dogs cover makes the books smile.
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