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AFL Round 8

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Posted: #1
YTD:   +29.47 units
Was a bit pissed off after last round, had my first proper loss for the year, a loss of 5-6 units. I am positive that won't happen this week.
 
I am amazed with AFL lines sometimes. They are too often set with how the team faired the previous week, irrespective of where the side sits in the league overall. Example Carlton...
 
Carlton v Brisbane
The line has moved nearly 5 points towards the lions but I was gobsmacked to see it come out at a pick em. It would've been nice to get it then but I rarely take a bet before the teams come out.
The lions have their strongest side for the year. It would've been interesting to see how this side faired against the cats last round. Its now such a solid team all over the ground. Even Leuenberger, who's been going great didn't get a game. Brown's been BOG the last 2 times these sides have met and with Thornton still out for the blues, their already vulnerable defence should be taken advantage of by Brown/Bradshaw.
With Cloke out the ruck will be won by Charman which should give the lions first opportunity in the midfield. Finally Drummond is back (huge) and Roe to give the lions a great defence. I still think the blues have one of the poorest defences in the league. Doesn't happen every week by I'm very confident on this pick.
Lions -4.5 (10 units)
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Carlton v Brisbane
The line has moved nearly 5 points towards the lions but I was gobsmacked to see it come out at a pick em. It would've been nice to get it then but I rarely take a bet before the teams come out.
The lions have their strongest side for the year. It would've been interesting to see how this side faired against the cats last round. Its now such a solid team all over the ground. Even Leuenberger, who's been going great didn't get a game. Brown's been BOG the last 2 times these sides have met and with Thornton still out for the blues, their already vulnerable defence should be taken advantage of by Brown/Bradshaw.
With Cloke out the ruck will be won by Charman which should give the lions first opportunity in the midfield. Finally Drummond is back (huge) and Roe to give the lions a great defence. I still think the blues have one of the poorest defences in the league. Doesn't happen every week by I'm very confident on this pick.
Lions -4.5 (10 units)

Sorry that should ready BOG the last 3 times they have played Carlton. Also, Carlton only really has Waite that has the size to play on Brown, last time they played Brown kicked 10 goals, 9 while Waite was playing on him.
 
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On it as well, although i think you are underselling Carlton a bit. They have one of the best mid fields, although i agree their defence looks in trouble on paper. If their midfield win enough of it they can keep them in the game.
 
Brisbane don't have a great match up for the fevolution IMO. if he is on song he could have a day out.
 
I tink Brisbane's pressure will be the difference, leading to Carlton making alot of skill errors.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

 
On it as well, although i think you are underselling Carlton a bit. They have one of the best mid fields, although i agree their defence looks in trouble on paper. If their midfield win enough of it they can keep them in the game.
 
Brisbane don't have a great match up for the fevolution IMO. if he is on song he could have a day out.
 
I tink Brisbane's pressure will be the difference, leading to Carlton making alot of skill errors.


I think they'll miss Cloke a lot (who's been in good form) and although they do have one of the best midfield, they'll struggle to get first possesion (without a quality ruckman) against a team who IMO has one of the best midfields too, especially in contested possesions (lead by Black and Power).

With Fev, I don't think it'll come down to one player to stop him rather, like the crows did, drop a player across to limit his leads and contest with.

Don't get me wrong Carlton will be a very good team but in 2010. They have the most inexperienced team (on average 300 games less experience than the 15th most inexperienced team). I expect Carlton to be very good in the first quarter by like you said the pressure for 4 full quarters will be the difference and wear them down.

Good luck to us buddy.

 
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Posted: #5
Black, Lappin and Power
 
I agree with Binomial about stopping Fev. Look back at game with the Hawks and Buddy. Merrett was left on him and Leigh occassionally rotated others. No double team though. Apart from freakish kicking by the left footers this was the reason they lost they game IMO. Leigh won't make that mistake again.
 
And like Binomial I do think Carlton are a good team, once these kids harder up in the same way the Hawks and Cats have they will get their crack the cup.
 
Tozer the teams lineups are interesting. No Copeland, no Lueberger.............. make your own mind on that one.
 
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Posted: #6
who is this Fev everyone keeps talking about?
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:

who is this Fev everyone keeps talking about?



 
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Posted: #8
tozer...........waiting a little more time to do some more looking....but you might be on to a cracker here!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

And like Binomial I do think Carlton are a good team, once these kids harder up in the same way the Hawks and Cats have they will get their crack the cup.
 
Tozer the teams lineups are interesting. No Copeland, no Lueberger.............. make your own mind on that one.


I think they'll have their crack at the cup too but in 2010 when these kids get some meat on their bones.

I think Copeland just got omitted for better (defensive) players but Leuenberger? I initially thought cause it was going to be wet but its indoors so I guess its just to balance the side.

I'm just rapted Drummond is back, I think it was amazing to see how big of an impact he makes, or should I say (the opposite) how much of a hole he leaves when he's not there. It was obvious as soon as he was injured in the Collingwood match. They are a lot more organized in defence with him in.

Cheers guys

 
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Posted: #10
Tozer I like Cloke as well. Add him Thornton, Walker, hot lips houlihan and bannister back in and i reckon they will cause a couple upsets in the second half of this year.
 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

Tozer I like Cloke as well. Add him Thornton, Walker, hot lips houlihan and bannister back in and i reckon they will cause a couple upsets in the second half of this year.
 

Good point, with some of them out, their backline especially can get exposed. But you're right, with them in they look a lot more experienced and capable of wins.
 
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Posted: #12
Another match that interests me is
 
Freo/Western Bulldogs
The bulldogs too have their strongest team in for the year, scary for a team that hasn't lost. Coming up against a team that just got humiliated by losing to the future wooden spooners.
 
Interesting line movement, started at 9 point now 4.5 towards Freo!!!
 
I'm going to think about this one a bit more but there are 2 bets that interest me;
  • Freo to win the first quarter because they will come out breathing fire after last rounds embarrasment
  • and the dogs to cover the line of -4.5
 
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Posted: #13
Nah Leuey was rested because he is young and needs an added rest.
 
We have Mitchell Clark who will play in ruck and/or Brennan. So the ruck options are covered. Mitchell to play in ruck a lot leading Brown and Bradshaw the big men up forward.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Nah Leuey was rested because he is young and needs an added rest.
 
We have Mitchell Clark who will play in ruck and/or Brennan. So the ruck options are covered. Mitchell to play in ruck a lot leading Brown and Bradshaw the big men up forward.

Beautiful, that should dominate the ruck I hope
 
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Posted: #15
Brennan love him one second, want to kill him the next
 
I am glad we have some team specialists on these boards for Cats, Swans and Lions. Always very helpful.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:


I think Copeland just got omitted for better (defensive) players but Leuenberger? I initially thought cause it was going to be wet but its indoors so I guess its just to balance the side.

Thanks for that. I was very suprised to see him ommited but you made some good points. Lions in recent years have had lots of good tall players. I'm on Brisvegas.

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:






lol was seeing if anyone would bite but nope.
 
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Posted: #18
I like Brisbane but I'd like to hear the confidence level of those playing the Lions.

0-10

0 = Two-Up decides the winner.

3 = I don't care if I lose, but I could win, you know.

7 = Gotta good feeling about this......but will get a bit nervous at times.

10 = I gots money in da bank, shawty what you drank!!!
 
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Posted: #19
8.5 but I always get a bit nervous at times
 
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Hawthorn/Port
I find it hard to see how Carlisle and Thurstons are going to stop Roughhead and Franklin, the wet weather might help them out a bit. At the other end I think Croad will easily beat Treadrea and Motlop can be a handful for anybody on his day. I like the Hawks to get a win and think the wet weather should keep it from blowing out to a big margin.
Hawks 1-39 (5 units)
 
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Posted: #22
With Brisbane as they have Luey and Charman as the only 2 established ruckman and Tippett as a first year player with Clark
a handy backup and Brennan to pinch hit - it wouldn't surprise me if they give Charman a rest next week.
 
We want Luey peaking towards the end of the season. A player of his age, especially in ruck can't afford to be burnt by seasons end when we're finals bound.
 
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Posted: #23

HOH - 7 and 10

I'm a bit bias at times, but with this team that is in, anything but a win is a bad result.

 
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Posted: #24
Thanks for Binomial for the above play. I was going to play his other play today Geelong 1-39 but I just can't pull the trigger.
 
 
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Posted: #25
I wish I could get those 1-39 wagers.  I am stuck with the simple, old lines.

20 minutes till bounce.  Anyone have a Melbourne weather update?
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