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    All Forums | Other

    AFL Round 8 - Discussion

    tozer
    Miracle1976
    binomial
    HeadOverHeart
    Bolar
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    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 2:05 AM ET #1

    G'day everybody,
     
    Thought I'd get the ball rolling for this week, as I'm itching to get started after a week of no AFL betting for me. Hopefully these lines are as close as Miracle gets them;
     
    St. Kilda v Collingwood, Telstra DomeHawthorn v Port Adelaide, Aurora StadiumRichmond v Geelong, MCGCarlton v Brisbane Lions, Telstra DomeKangaroos v West Coast, Gold Coast StadiumAdelaide v Melbourne, AAMI StadiumSydney v Essendon, Telstra StadiumFremantle v Western Bulldogs, Subiaco
    $2.05 $1.77 +8
    $1.39 $3.00 -21
    $5.00 $1.17 +35
    $1.85 $1.95
    $1.25 $4.00 -29
    $1.10 $7.00 -43
    $1.13 $6.00 -39
    $2.05 $1.77 +9
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    G'day everybody,
     
    Thought I'd get the ball rolling for this week, as I'm itching to get started after a week of no AFL betting for me. Hopefully these lines are as close as Miracle gets them;
     
    St. Kilda v Collingwood, Telstra DomeHawthorn v Port Adelaide, Aurora StadiumRichmond v Geelong, MCGCarlton v Brisbane Lions, Telstra DomeKangaroos v West Coast, Gold Coast StadiumAdelaide v Melbourne, AAMI StadiumSydney v Essendon, Telstra StadiumFremantle v Western Bulldogs, Subiaco
    $2.05 $1.77 +8
    $1.39 $3.00 -21
    $5.00 $1.17 +35
    $1.85 $1.95
    $1.25 $4.00 -29
    $1.10 $7.00 -43
    $1.13 $6.00 -39
    $2.05 $1.77 +9
     
    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 2:12 AM ET #2

    Lets try that again;

    St Kilda $1.77 v Collingwood $2.05        +8
    Hawthorn $1.39 v Port $3.00                 -21
    Richmond $5.00 v Geelong $1.17         +35
    Carlton $1.85 v Brisbane $1.95  
    Kangaroos $1.25 v WC $4.00               -29
    Adellaide $1.10 v Melbourne $7.00        -43
    Sydney $1.13 v Essendon $6.00           -39
    Freo $2.05 v Western Bulldogs $1.77     +9

    Reply

    Lets try that again;

    St Kilda $1.77 v Collingwood $2.05        +8
    Hawthorn $1.39 v Port $3.00                 -21
    Richmond $5.00 v Geelong $1.17         +35
    Carlton $1.85 v Brisbane $1.95  
    Kangaroos $1.25 v WC $4.00               -29
    Adellaide $1.10 v Melbourne $7.00        -43
    Sydney $1.13 v Essendon $6.00           -39
    Freo $2.05 v Western Bulldogs $1.77     +9

     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 2:17 AM ET #3

    The 2 lines that surprise me the most and look attractive are

    • Carlton/Brisbane
    • Freo/Bulldogs

    Why are the Blues and Freo getting so much respect? They have HGA but still a pick em with Brisbane.

    And what have Freo done to be 9 points off a top 4 side?

    Reply

    The 2 lines that surprise me the most and look attractive are

    • Carlton/Brisbane
    • Freo/Bulldogs

    Why are the Blues and Freo getting so much respect? They have HGA but still a pick em with Brisbane.

    And what have Freo done to be 9 points off a top 4 side?

     
    Miracle1976
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 6:51 AM ET #4

    Gd work tozer.  I think your Freo/Bull & Saints/Coll line will be more like 4-5 and the Haw/Port line high teens, everything else looks about right, but like I have stated in past 'discussion threads', the lines are only there as a guide.
     
    Now...as for the games, really really really don't like any of them.  But, if I had a gun to my head I would look at the Kangroo's & Adelaide
     
    I will do more reading as the week progresses and then post here... hoping to find a gem in this round, but my gut says at the moment this will not happen!  
    Reply
    Gd work tozer.  I think your Freo/Bull & Saints/Coll line will be more like 4-5 and the Haw/Port line high teens, everything else looks about right, but like I have stated in past 'discussion threads', the lines are only there as a guide.
     
    Now...as for the games, really really really don't like any of them.  But, if I had a gun to my head I would look at the Kangroo's & Adelaide
     
    I will do more reading as the week progresses and then post here... hoping to find a gem in this round, but my gut says at the moment this will not happen!  
     
    binomial
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 10:30 PM ET #5

    I agree Tozer the ones I liked at first glance were Brisbane and WB.
     
    I played WB ML for 3 units.
     
    Brisbane could be without Black, Johnstone and Lappin again though, which could see Carlton's midfield dominate. I think i will wait and see the lineups.
     
    Leans:
    Hawthorn - Port playing ok but haven't beaten anyone decent yet
    Sydney - Essendon probably get a couple back but lose Mcphee and Lovett Murray
    Kangaroos - WC hasn't stayed within 10 goals yet in its three away games, i think Kangas will be keen after poor showing in Adelaide
    Richmond - Geelong have not been flying like last year and Richmond still underrated for mine. Wallace has many some smart moves this season in dropping senior players who were not doing what was asked the rest of the team has been playing hard, plus moving Richo down the ground.
    Reply
    I agree Tozer the ones I liked at first glance were Brisbane and WB.
     
    I played WB ML for 3 units.
     
    Brisbane could be without Black, Johnstone and Lappin again though, which could see Carlton's midfield dominate. I think i will wait and see the lineups.
     
    Leans:
    Hawthorn - Port playing ok but haven't beaten anyone decent yet
    Sydney - Essendon probably get a couple back but lose Mcphee and Lovett Murray
    Kangaroos - WC hasn't stayed within 10 goals yet in its three away games, i think Kangas will be keen after poor showing in Adelaide
    Richmond - Geelong have not been flying like last year and Richmond still underrated for mine. Wallace has many some smart moves this season in dropping senior players who were not doing what was asked the rest of the team has been playing hard, plus moving Richo down the ground.
     
    binomial
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 10:33 PM ET #6

    Also Collingwood have not done much but beat some weak sides, but SK without Reiwoldt look pretty weak to me.
    Reply
    Also Collingwood have not done much but beat some weak sides, but SK without Reiwoldt look pretty weak to me.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 10:53 PM ET #7

    Very good and accurate points on those sides Binomial.

    I thought Black would probably be out for Bris but didn't realize the other 2 might be as well. Will be waiting for the sides or trying to get some inside info.

    Reply

    Very good and accurate points on those sides Binomial.

    I thought Black would probably be out for Bris but didn't realize the other 2 might be as well. Will be waiting for the sides or trying to get some inside info.

     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 12, 2008 - 11:50 PM ET #8

    Bulldogs are a definite play.  Unless something we don't know, injury, poor venue history vs. Dockers, etc., something, then the green light is on.

    Was hoping Sydney would be undervalued and not get into a 30+-point line.  Hopefully it is lower than that.

    Tigers are tempting with the start.  Betting against Geelong is 120 minutes of biting your nails and hiding under the covers however.

    Carlton and the Roos need a second look.

    Port could have some unexpected value as well....

    Hmmm.......

    Let's get 'em this round guys!
    Reply
    Bulldogs are a definite play.  Unless something we don't know, injury, poor venue history vs. Dockers, etc., something, then the green light is on.

    Was hoping Sydney would be undervalued and not get into a 30+-point line.  Hopefully it is lower than that.

    Tigers are tempting with the start.  Betting against Geelong is 120 minutes of biting your nails and hiding under the covers however.

    Carlton and the Roos need a second look.

    Port could have some unexpected value as well....

    Hmmm.......

    Let's get 'em this round guys!
     
    Bolar
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    Posted: May. 13, 2008 - 1:38 AM ET #9

    Carlton won't beat Brisbane.
     
    Brisbane put it up to Geelong without Black, Lappin, Johnstone, Drummond and Brown. Yes Geelong havn't been firing lately but Geelong's midfield is more superior than Carlton's.
    Reply
    Carlton won't beat Brisbane.
     
    Brisbane put it up to Geelong without Black, Lappin, Johnstone, Drummond and Brown. Yes Geelong havn't been firing lately but Geelong's midfield is more superior than Carlton's.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 13, 2008 - 3:02 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Carlton won't beat Brisbane.
     
    Brisbane put it up to Geelong without Black, Lappin, Johnstone, Drummond and Brown. Yes Geelong havn't been firing lately but Geelong's midfield is more superior than Carlton's.


    Good stuff Bolar!!!
    I am very confused as to why Carlton are (slightly) favoured

    Carlton will end this year in the bottom 5 teams, Brisbane are on track for finals. The Blues are way overrated by the bookies, why? They have had 2 wins in 3 matches but against the bottom 2 teams (WC and Melb). I'll give them credit for their win over the Pies but thats it.

    Drummond is available this week!!!!! Very excited he's back, the lions defence runs so smoothly through him, a quality running backman, sorely been missed. And while they may be missing some of those players listed above, they are listed as having a fitness test this week, so if they are fit, and its a big if, the lions will field their strongest side this year because they have no other injuries. If this is the case I cannot see how the Blues will be competitive against the Lions for 4 full quarters.

    Head Over Heart, you asked a few weeks ago about AFL lines that can be taken advantage of, well IMO this is one that is way off.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Carlton won't beat Brisbane.
     
    Brisbane put it up to Geelong without Black, Lappin, Johnstone, Drummond and Brown. Yes Geelong havn't been firing lately but Geelong's midfield is more superior than Carlton's.


    Good stuff Bolar!!!
    I am very confused as to why Carlton are (slightly) favoured

    Carlton will end this year in the bottom 5 teams, Brisbane are on track for finals. The Blues are way overrated by the bookies, why? They have had 2 wins in 3 matches but against the bottom 2 teams (WC and Melb). I'll give them credit for their win over the Pies but thats it.

    Drummond is available this week!!!!! Very excited he's back, the lions defence runs so smoothly through him, a quality running backman, sorely been missed. And while they may be missing some of those players listed above, they are listed as having a fitness test this week, so if they are fit, and its a big if, the lions will field their strongest side this year because they have no other injuries. If this is the case I cannot see how the Blues will be competitive against the Lions for 4 full quarters.

    Head Over Heart, you asked a few weeks ago about AFL lines that can be taken advantage of, well IMO this is one that is way off.

     
    ecoute
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    Posted: May. 13, 2008 - 3:24 AM ET #11

    Different teams react in different ways to the split round/break. Just something to consider
     
    St Kilda $1.77 v Collingwood $2.05        +8
    Like the Pies here.

    Hawthorn $1.39 v Port $3.00                 -21
    Port have a fantastic record in tassie. Better than the Hawks I think. No play.
     
    Richmond $5.00 v Geelong $1.17         +35
    The way the Cats have been playing they are in fact trying to lose games.
     
    Carlton $1.85 v Brisbane $1.95
    A little stunned by this. Brisvegas !
      
    Kangaroos $1.25 v WC $4.00               -29
    I'll take the Weagles.
     
    Adellaide $1.10 v Melbourne $7.00        -43
    Adelaide to win the game but -43 is throwing your money away.
     
    Sydney $1.13 v Essendon $6.00           -39
    Same deal as Sydney. Why do the defensive teams with lowish offenses have such big lines
     
    Freo $2.05 v Western Bulldogs $1.77     +9
    Will Freo come back strong or will they have cracked. No Dogs can kick straight like they did in Sydney.
    Reply
    Different teams react in different ways to the split round/break. Just something to consider
     
    St Kilda $1.77 v Collingwood $2.05        +8
    Like the Pies here.

    Hawthorn $1.39 v Port $3.00                 -21
    Port have a fantastic record in tassie. Better than the Hawks I think. No play.
     
    Richmond $5.00 v Geelong $1.17         +35
    The way the Cats have been playing they are in fact trying to lose games.
     
    Carlton $1.85 v Brisbane $1.95
    A little stunned by this. Brisvegas !
      
    Kangaroos $1.25 v WC $4.00               -29
    I'll take the Weagles.
     
    Adellaide $1.10 v Melbourne $7.00        -43
    Adelaide to win the game but -43 is throwing your money away.
     
    Sydney $1.13 v Essendon $6.00           -39
    Same deal as Sydney. Why do the defensive teams with lowish offenses have such big lines
     
    Freo $2.05 v Western Bulldogs $1.77     +9
    Will Freo come back strong or will they have cracked. No Dogs can kick straight like they did in Sydney.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 12:02 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Carlton won't beat Brisbane.
     
    Brisbane put it up to Geelong without Black, Lappin, Johnstone, Drummond and Brown. Yes Geelong havn't been firing lately but Geelong's midfield is more superior than Carlton's.


    Melbourne stayed within 30 of Geelong.

    But, I do think you are right.  Brisbane can't be dismissed off-hand.   Need to look further into the H2H and venue details, etc.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Carlton won't beat Brisbane.
     
    Brisbane put it up to Geelong without Black, Lappin, Johnstone, Drummond and Brown. Yes Geelong havn't been firing lately but Geelong's midfield is more superior than Carlton's.


    Melbourne stayed within 30 of Geelong.

    But, I do think you are right.  Brisbane can't be dismissed off-hand.   Need to look further into the H2H and venue details, etc.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 12:07 AM ET #13

    Bulldogs -9 doubled with Brisbane to win looks smashing.

    Of course, I am suspicious of that line, as I mentioned before, it needs a second look.

    Kangaroos/WC need a second look too.  Can't see how WC can even get out of the gate away from home and with so many injured.
    Reply
    Bulldogs -9 doubled with Brisbane to win looks smashing.

    Of course, I am suspicious of that line, as I mentioned before, it needs a second look.

    Kangaroos/WC need a second look too.  Can't see how WC can even get out of the gate away from home and with so many injured.
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2007
    Posts: 5831
    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 12:20 AM ET #14

    Not only is Drummond going to be back, but Roe may be back also. Roe and Drummond in our backline. Yes please. Thats a more stable backline.
     
    Anyway here is some information I have got.
     
    LAST THREE YEARS
    2005: Round 12 - W - 21.14 (140) to 12.10 (82) @ TD (N) (won by 58pts)
    2006: Round 13 - W - 8.23 (71) to 7.14 (56) @ Gabba (N) (won by 15pts)
    2007: Round 5 - W - 21.10 (136) to 18.16 (124) @ TD (N) (won by 12pts)
    2007: Round 16 - W - 25.13 (163) to 6.10 (46) @ Gabba  (won by 117pts)
    The Lions have won their past seven home-and-away matches against Carlton after winning only twice in their first eight encounters. The current seven-match winning streak is the Club’s greatest ever against the Blues. However, Carlton defeated the Lions in the 2007 NAB Cup Grand Final.

    The Lions’ 117-point home victory over Carlton in Round 16 last year was the second biggest win of the merged Club’s history. It was second only to the team’s 141-point win against Adelaide in Round 17 of 2004.
    The Lions have scored an average of more than 132 points in their past seven matches against the Blues.
     
    The Club's most recent home-and-away loss against the Blues was back in Round 8 of the 2001 AFL Season at Princes Park: Carlton 21.16 (142) d Brisbane Lions 9.14 (68). This match actually proved to be the positive turning point in the Lions’ assault on the premiership that year.
     
    The Lions are averaging 100 points per game so far this season while the Blues are slightly ahead averaging 100.29 points per game.
     
    Drummond, Lappin, Johnstone, Roe will all probably be back and Brisbane are at full strength minus Black. Take Brisbane and the over.
     
    Reply
    Not only is Drummond going to be back, but Roe may be back also. Roe and Drummond in our backline. Yes please. Thats a more stable backline.
     
    Anyway here is some information I have got.
     
    LAST THREE YEARS
    2005: Round 12 - W - 21.14 (140) to 12.10 (82) @ TD (N) (won by 58pts)
    2006: Round 13 - W - 8.23 (71) to 7.14 (56) @ Gabba (N) (won by 15pts)
    2007: Round 5 - W - 21.10 (136) to 18.16 (124) @ TD (N) (won by 12pts)
    2007: Round 16 - W - 25.13 (163) to 6.10 (46) @ Gabba  (won by 117pts)
    The Lions have won their past seven home-and-away matches against Carlton after winning only twice in their first eight encounters. The current seven-match winning streak is the Club’s greatest ever against the Blues. However, Carlton defeated the Lions in the 2007 NAB Cup Grand Final.

    The Lions’ 117-point home victory over Carlton in Round 16 last year was the second biggest win of the merged Club’s history. It was second only to the team’s 141-point win against Adelaide in Round 17 of 2004.
    The Lions have scored an average of more than 132 points in their past seven matches against the Blues.
     
    The Club's most recent home-and-away loss against the Blues was back in Round 8 of the 2001 AFL Season at Princes Park: Carlton 21.16 (142) d Brisbane Lions 9.14 (68). This match actually proved to be the positive turning point in the Lions’ assault on the premiership that year.
     
    The Lions are averaging 100 points per game so far this season while the Blues are slightly ahead averaging 100.29 points per game.
     
    Drummond, Lappin, Johnstone, Roe will all probably be back and Brisbane are at full strength minus Black. Take Brisbane and the over.
     
     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
    Hall of Fame
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    Posts: 22502
    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 10:33 AM ET #15

    Brisbane team news has them high on confidence and in good spirits.
    Reply
    Brisbane team news has them high on confidence and in good spirits.
     
    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
    All-Star
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    Joined: May, 2005
    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 12:35 PM ET #16

    real numbers out yet? Can't find any. 
    Reply
    real numbers out yet? Can't find any. 
     
    MaineRoad
    MaineRoad
    All-Star
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    Joined: May, 2005
    Posts: 12254
    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 12:36 PM ET #17

    From what I've seen here, I'm liking the Demons, Bombers, Eagles and Dogs.
    Reply
    From what I've seen here, I'm liking the Demons, Bombers, Eagles and Dogs.
     
     
    tozer
    tozer
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2007
    Posts: 1378
    Posted: May. 14, 2008 - 7:36 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

    real numbers out yet? Can't find any. 

    St Kilda $2.35 v Collingwood $1.60       +10.5
    Hawthorn $1.40 v Port $2.95                -16.5
    Richmond $4.85 v Geelong $1.18        +26.5
    Carlton $2.00 v Brisbane $1.82 
    Kangaroos $1.25 v WC $3.95              -25.5
    Adellaide $1.10 v Melbourne $6.75       -38.5
    Sydney $1.10 v Essendon $7.00          -37.5
    Freo $2.08 v Western Bulldogs $1.75    +4.5

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

    real numbers out yet? Can't find any. 

    St Kilda $2.35 v Collingwood $1.60       +10.5
    Hawthorn $1.40 v Port $2.95                -16.5
    Richmond $4.85 v Geelong $1.18        +26.5
    Carlton $2.00 v Brisbane $1.82 
    Kangaroos $1.25 v WC $3.95              -25.5
    Adellaide $1.10 v Melbourne $6.75       -38.5
    Sydney $1.10 v Essendon $7.00          -37.5
    Freo $2.08 v Western Bulldogs $1.75    +4.5

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