AFL round 6

YTD: 7-4
units: +8.5


One for today,

CARLTON 1st Half @1.90 (2units)

Hawks yet to be full strength for this season but still have the class to win this game against the blues. I just feel the blues will come out strong knowing this is a good chance for them to win one over the hawks, so i'm gonna play it for the 1st half only and hope the blues can unsettle them early. Remember the hawks denied fevola his 100th goal last year, so I think the blues will come out fired up and ready to go.

 

So be a close one either way at the Half unless something unforeseen happens.

carlton 1st half

roughead was the difference (6-1)

adding for tonight,

ADELAIDE ml @ 1.926 (2.5 units)

Don't think port can bounce back after getting flogged last week, couldn't see them mentally prepared for this derby. Crows havent been bad so far with the two losses coming against the two heavyweights so i couldnt really fault their form.

gl fellas

adelaide

The swannies have beaten the tigers by an average margin of 65 points in their last 3 @ SCG and the line is set at 17.5 for sunday.

Hmmmm..... cant help myself, gotta go against my home team here and have a shot with the tigers.

RICHMOND ml @ 3.110 (1.5 units)

I HIGHLY disagree with this pick.  Mickey O and Big bad are back.  First time since Round 14 of 2008.  The Swans will find a new forward gear, especially against a side which never has any answers for them.  You might pip something with the +17.5 on offer, but ML looks fruitless.

Hopefully you know something I don't.

I just can't understand why the line is set so low with players u mentioned coming back into the team and playing at the SCG. Swan's have been ordinary this year and even if they have won the both game at home u've gotta see their performance against carlton (last home game). If they come in with that same game plan, I think richmond will have a good chance of causing an upset and as a live dog they are priced well imo, I know going against the swans @ SCG isnt the smartest bet but I'm not convinced with their current form to be a 1.40 fav even at home.

I've got my eyes on the saints ml price for later on, public jumping on the dogs. If the bulldogs start the game like they did against richmond, this could be over by halftime. They recovered to flogg the tigers but the last two performances were dismal.

Anyone else out there know the reason why the doggies seem to be the hot pick for today? other than the fact that they won the last 2 against the saints.

Dogs need to jump start themselves off their recent performances and it is at Telstra.  The Dogs at Telstra rise to a new level, much like a Brisbane at the Gabba or the Swans at the SCG.  People might be playing off that or still in the funk of not believing St. Kilda are for real.

The Saints are for real and I have been backing them fully since my posted Round Two play versus Adelaide.  The public and books have still not caught up, a full month later, therefore making St. Kilda a punter's friend.

Oh, btw, I think St. Kilda will get up.  I'd take them ML.

Still think Swans -17.5 is the play of the round.  But I have taken the last two weeks off because I have been a jinx.

jdoobiz, what did you do with this game?  Still on Richmond ML?

Also love the Geelong HT minus the points.

Seems like the books giving away free money this round.

But I am officially on the sidelines, money-wise, for now.

GL!

hoh, sorry mate. Had to duck out for a moment. Yeah i had the tigers ml already placed when i made the post, yet again they blow the chance coming into the 4th with the momentum. Hall kicks a goal on the final siren to cover, so even if i took the point it wouldn't have mattered.

Yeah i'll prob play the saints ml, just busy with the dragons game right now. Very tight match!

tigers

Looks like this is the best odds i'll get for the SU bet with the saints. So i'll pull the trigger now. Fuck it, i'm unloading bigtime!

SAINTS ml @ 1.556 (20 units)

All i wanna hear for this afternoon is...

'oh when the saints go marching in.....dadaddada blah blah'

Seriously they can go undefeated till they meet geelong in round 14, i think almost all the games till then are at etihad stadium.

I believe they are the real deal, dont let me down saints!

GL on the Saints.  I think they get up!

Yeah, Hally goals with 29 gone in the 4th to cover.

Geelong HT -28.5 also covers,

What are the odds when I decide to suspend my break and jump back into it that I won't be able to pick a winner for the hell of it? 

saints

no sweat

glad they started to kick straight in the second half.

the 'real deal' saints.

Next week against the pies will be interesting, saints also have a shakey record against this team. Just dont think the books will offer this generous price with them again while they're winning games until the geelong clash. Who knows? collingwood are a dangerous team, and the team that flogged the cats last year. Give me near 1.60 and i might bite, don't think it'll happen, prob come out at 1.40 or less.




YTD: 8-7
units: +13.6

pick a ml spot and belt it

 

Well done mate  

cheers battler

It all depends on which collingwood side turns up to the game.

rod