AFL ROUND 5 PLAYS

Question

The early bird gets the worm.

Fell into old habits over the weekend, been playing a lot of OVERS lately because it makes a game enjoyable as you are hoping for both teams to score. No more of that. I promise. We're here to make money.

Heavily looking at one BOMB play and 2 leans for round 5 before the line's go walkabouts on me. I'm not locking these in just yet though!

Let's start off with a potential BOMB play which we are 5-0 on over the past 2 seasons. Judging by the record, i'd love to just wait for and pick these spots and I'd be a wealthy man, but I'm an action junkie.

Fremantle Dockers -36.5 vs Carlton Blues

I know Erich will hate me for this one as he hates the Dockers and their offensive capabilities.

Sunday afternoon, late game, another hostile home crowd, a team that has been challenging for the flag the last few seasons sitting at 0-4, coach under fire. Now is their chance to kick-start their season in a big way. With their losses, they don't have the time to be mucking about, when they face poor sides they need to put them away, here's their opportunity.

Carlton are hopeless and another team that struggles on the road. Once their heads are down it's one way traffic. I'm not sure what the situation is with captain Marc Murphy but he got badly split open on the head over the weekend and missed the last half or so (concussion?). He could even miss this week.

If you thought Freo can't score, look at the Blues. Casboult is their only target and is one of the worst kicks in the league.

Thought this line would open at -46.5 but with Freo's recent poor form and missing Mundy I think -36.5 is fair.

My capping has a Freo victory by 55+ points.

Other leans are North Melbourne -8.5 over the Suns and Collingwood -18.5 against the Bombers on Anzac Day.

peekay89 · Answer

The early bird gets the worm.

Fell into old habits over the weekend, been playing a lot of OVERS lately because it makes a game enjoyable as you are hoping for both teams to score. No more of that. I promise. We're here to make money.

Heavily looking at one BOMB play and 2 leans for round 5 before the line's go walkabouts on me. I'm not locking these in just yet though!

Let's start off with a potential BOMB play which we are 5-0 on over the past 2 seasons. Judging by the record, i'd love to just wait for and pick these spots and I'd be a wealthy man, but I'm an action junkie.

Fremantle Dockers -36.5 vs Carlton Blues

I know Erich will hate me for this one as he hates the Dockers and their offensive capabilities.

Sunday afternoon, late game, another hostile home crowd, a team that has been challenging for the flag the last few seasons sitting at 0-4, coach under fire. Now is their chance to kick-start their season in a big way. With their losses, they don't have the time to be mucking about, when they face poor sides they need to put them away, here's their opportunity.

Carlton are hopeless and another team that struggles on the road. Once their heads are down it's one way traffic. I'm not sure what the situation is with captain Marc Murphy but he got badly split open on the head over the weekend and missed the last half or so (concussion?). He could even miss this week.

If you thought Freo can't score, look at the Blues. Casboult is their only target and is one of the worst kicks in the league.

Thought this line would open at -46.5 but with Freo's recent poor form and missing Mundy I think -36.5 is fair.

My capping has a Freo victory by 55+ points.

Other leans are North Melbourne -8.5 over the Suns and Collingwood -18.5 against the Bombers on Anzac Day.

ecoute · Answer

Yep like it here

Erich777 · Answer

Freo is a decent pick.  They&#x27;ll do better as well.A lot of points to lay for the Pies IMO, but that&#x27;s just gut feel.

peekay89 · Answer

Can I just say that Richmond as dogs to Melbourne is an absolute joke.

Give me tigers @ $2 every single day of the week and then some.

Sick of these overreactions to a club "playing well".

Did we not see Demons show up strong first round against GWS and then lose to the Bombers? Come on.

isport · Answer

Richmond suck at the moment, not sure how much of an influence Maric will be, Gawn is probably a better ruck these days. Doubt Deledio will play and Melbourne have beaten Richmond the last two years when they weren&#x27;t as good as they are now.

peekay89 · Answer

Thanks for the input iSport but like the Tigs here.

Put together a 5-team multi/parlay if anyone is interested. Play at your own risk/values

Richmond ML

Collingwood ML

Fremantle -38.5

Lions/Dogs OVER 181.5

Saints/Giants OVER 188.5

500 to win around 9.2k

isport · Answer

They are saying Deledio is back, if official and he plays more than a quarter then i&#x27;ll be agreeing with you Richmond should be a lock

peekay89 · Answer

Yes my friend, Deledio and Maric are huge inclusions for Tigers but will be well underdone.

All the lines have moved in our favour.

Some interesting points for this weekends matchups:

Saints getting +9.5 at home to GWS is decent value

Geelong have beaten Port Adelaide 11 of the past 12 times

West Coast have not won at the SCG since 1999 (incredible stat)

Im sticking with the Freo play and the multi, but like Saints, Swans and Tigers at the spread.

juniorwaugh · Answer

Hey there guys, been ages since I&#x27;ve been using Covers! I&#x27;m back and I&#x27;ll join your discussion from now on. I agree with your BOMB play, now that the line is at -31.5, I can hear you loading that BOMB up from here! WOW! Bargain I reckon lads!

Erich777 · Answer

Did you grab Tiges ML when it paid 1.90?  Hope so buddy

peekay89 · Answer

Got tigers at $2.00 mate :)

peekay89 · Answer

Step 1 of 5 complete. One game at a time

HeadOverHeart · Answer

I have Freo winning by 19 in this one. Of course, give or take a clanger either way and that is a 13-25-point range.

There is a reason why the line has been dropping against the Dockers and that is because it was set much too high to begin with. Freo couldn't stop a mouse with a brick wall so the Blues will fancy them some points in this one. Going up against Freo, especially if the Blues can skirt past Freo's much more experienced midfield, will feel like sledding downhill compared to what they have faced in previous weeks.

The Dockers will also want their first win to be a big one and know that the Top Eight might come down to percentage in the end. If they can, they will kick a boat and keep kicking until the final horn. No tempo play tonight.

So will I fancied the Blues with the ridiculous line of +36.5 against a team that couldn't stop my grandmother, and I still fancy them with a 31.5-point start, I reckon the real play tonight is the OVER 171.5.

Carlton can easily put up 70 on this sieve defence of Fremantle and the Dockers will eclipse 100. Add 'em up and count your cash.

Opinions?

HeadOverHeart · Answer

Don&#x27;t forget, Carlton also leads Fremantle in almost every useful statistic: Kicks, Handballs, Disposals, Marks, Frees For, Hit-outs.  Fremantle leads in Goals and Tackles.That may be a little skewed, however, considering the level of competition Fremantle has played compared to Carlton.

peekay89 · Answer

Carlton are crap, that&#x27;s enough for me. Put together a 5-team multi/parlay if anyone is interested. Play at your own risk/valuesRichmond MLCollingwood MLFremantle -38.5Lions/Dogs OVER 181.5 Saints/Giants OVER 188.5 500 to win around 9.2khanging in there

isport · Answer

Deledio is out, will be surprised if my Tigers win

HeadOverHeart · Answer

Blues and Dockers are complete shyte.Just bloody awful.

peekay89 · Answer

After watching this Freo game may god have mercy on my soul haha!Nice call HoH, now I hope Blues win! Freo are a bottom 4 team judging by todays performance, what a fall from grace

isport · Answer

OUCH, all my bets were multi&#x27;s that had freo ML in it. It really hurts

HeadOverHeart · Answer

Last season was last season. A lot changes. Cannot cap based on last year&#x27;s form. The Dees are the better side over Richmond 3 of 4 days on the pitch this year. They are a well-rounded unit, not special, just no glaring weakness.  Richmond can be prolific at times but their holes send them into the negative. This season knows not of the Tigers&#x27; past three Finals campaigns.

AFL ROUND 5 PLAYS

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