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    All Forums | Other

    AFL Round 18 Lines & Leans

    Django
    HeadOverHeart
    Luckylunchbox
    binomial
    dingodogg
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    Views: 1074
    Posts: 13
     
    Django
    Django
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2012 - 10:54 AM ET #1


    Hawthorn 1.22
    -28.5

    Geelong 1.63
    Adelaide 2.25
    -8.5

    North Melbourne 1.10
    Melbourne 6.75
    -39.5

    GWS 17.00
    Collingwood 1.01
    OTB

    Carlton 2.10
    Richmond 1.72
    -6.5

    Gold Coast 9.00
    Sydney 1.06
    -45.5

    Port Adelaide 2.20
    Fremantle 1.67
    -7.5

    St.Kilda 1.16
    Western Bulldogs 5.25
    -33.5

    West Coast 1.17
    Brisbane 5.00
    -31.5
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hawthorn 1.22
    -28.5

    Geelong 1.63
    Adelaide 2.25
    -8.5

    North Melbourne 1.10
    Melbourne 6.75
    -39.5

    GWS 17.00
    Collingwood 1.01
    OTB

    Carlton 2.10
    Richmond 1.72
    -6.5

    Gold Coast 9.00
    Sydney 1.06
    -45.5

    Port Adelaide 2.20
    Fremantle 1.67
    -7.5

    St.Kilda 1.16
    Western Bulldogs 5.25
    -33.5

    West Coast 1.17
    Brisbane 5.00
    -31.5
     
    Django
    Django
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2012 - 10:56 AM ET #2

    stupid forum did it again

    Essendone 4.25
    Hawthorn 1.22
    -28.5

    Reply
    stupid forum did it again

    Essendone 4.25
    Hawthorn 1.22
    -28.5

     
    Django
    Django
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2012 - 11:32 AM ET #3

    I've overrated the Bombers and over looked their loss to Melbourne, they've been on and off since then and undervalued the Hawks.

    Hawks should get another convincing win. Collingwood have a certain 4 points as do Swans and Eagles.

    Hawks need this win to stay in touch with the top 4.

    Wins to Cats and North, Freo and Saints will put Essendon 7th with only a game ahead of North, 2 games ahead of Saints, Fremantle and also Carlton if they beat the miserable Tigers. Which will make the final 8 a logjam for the last few rounds.

    Hawks to cover, team total over if it's not capped too far over 100. Hawks 1-39 isn't very appealing with the Bombers performances against the Cats and Saints.
    Reply
    I've overrated the Bombers and over looked their loss to Melbourne, they've been on and off since then and undervalued the Hawks.

    Hawks should get another convincing win. Collingwood have a certain 4 points as do Swans and Eagles.

    Hawks need this win to stay in touch with the top 4.

    Wins to Cats and North, Freo and Saints will put Essendon 7th with only a game ahead of North, 2 games ahead of Saints, Fremantle and also Carlton if they beat the miserable Tigers. Which will make the final 8 a logjam for the last few rounds.

    Hawks to cover, team total over if it's not capped too far over 100. Hawks 1-39 isn't very appealing with the Bombers performances against the Cats and Saints.
     
    Django
    Django
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2012 - 12:54 PM ET #4

    Bobby's surely going to be on the other side of this one, but I have a feeling the Crows upset the Cats down in Geelong. Crows with the points or Cats 1-39, should be a close one.

    North are averaging about 45 points more than Melbourne a game. North battling for a finals 8 spot could use a percentage boost. Melbourne probably start tanking for bottom position so they don't need to use a first round pick on Viney and hope GWS and Gold Coast can get another two wins, both have Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast play each other in rd20. Although if Melbourne lose both games, that leaves them 2nd last on percentage as it's unlikely the loser of Suns and Giants (probably Giants) wins one of their remaining games given the draw. Giants could really screw Melbourne again by making them waste a first round pick on a father son they've invested a lot into.

    Regardless, North by lots. Over 10 goals.

    Collingwood spread will be huge, think the bounce back after last week and really punish the Giants. Pies by 150+

    If Carlton get a Henderson, Kreuzer and possibly Waite back they should end Richmonds finals chances. Carlton with the points

    Sydney should put on a clinic against the Suns. Swans to cover

    Port Adelaide off a trip to Darwin, had to work hard to run over Melbourne in the final quarter. Freo had a training drill against an undermanned Giants. Freo need this to stay in touch with North and with 3% gain in percentage bump North out of the 8.

    Saints will be far too good for the Bulldogs, Saints need this to keep finals chances alive, they have almost assured wins over GWS and Melbourne to come but need to be able get wins over Collingwood, Cats and Carlton to fight for a finals berth.

    Eagles should get a big win here, back at home coming off two tough losses and the revenge factor for the Lions shock upset earlier in the season.

    That line is a bit high at -31.5 though. I think I'll lay off backing that one. Lions haven't been too bad and could keep it respectable. Maybe a play on the Eagles Team Total over 80-90, depending on weather.





    Reply
    Bobby's surely going to be on the other side of this one, but I have a feeling the Crows upset the Cats down in Geelong. Crows with the points or Cats 1-39, should be a close one.

    North are averaging about 45 points more than Melbourne a game. North battling for a finals 8 spot could use a percentage boost. Melbourne probably start tanking for bottom position so they don't need to use a first round pick on Viney and hope GWS and Gold Coast can get another two wins, both have Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast play each other in rd20. Although if Melbourne lose both games, that leaves them 2nd last on percentage as it's unlikely the loser of Suns and Giants (probably Giants) wins one of their remaining games given the draw. Giants could really screw Melbourne again by making them waste a first round pick on a father son they've invested a lot into.

    Regardless, North by lots. Over 10 goals.

    Collingwood spread will be huge, think the bounce back after last week and really punish the Giants. Pies by 150+

    If Carlton get a Henderson, Kreuzer and possibly Waite back they should end Richmonds finals chances. Carlton with the points

    Sydney should put on a clinic against the Suns. Swans to cover

    Port Adelaide off a trip to Darwin, had to work hard to run over Melbourne in the final quarter. Freo had a training drill against an undermanned Giants. Freo need this to stay in touch with North and with 3% gain in percentage bump North out of the 8.

    Saints will be far too good for the Bulldogs, Saints need this to keep finals chances alive, they have almost assured wins over GWS and Melbourne to come but need to be able get wins over Collingwood, Cats and Carlton to fight for a finals berth.

    Eagles should get a big win here, back at home coming off two tough losses and the revenge factor for the Lions shock upset earlier in the season.

    That line is a bit high at -31.5 though. I think I'll lay off backing that one. Lions haven't been too bad and could keep it respectable. Maybe a play on the Eagles Team Total over 80-90, depending on weather.





     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2012 - 5:04 PM ET #5

    I like two matches right off the gut....but I'll wait a bit until I have more time to sit down with them and take a look.


    Reply
    I like two matches right off the gut....but I'll wait a bit until I have more time to sit down with them and take a look.


     
    Luckylunchbox
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    Posts: 5945
    Posted: Jul. 23, 2012 - 8:20 PM ET #6

    Swans and WC against the spread look good
    Reply
    Swans and WC against the spread look good
     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 24, 2012 - 2:54 PM ET #7

    Should be a great round of footy.  I didn't like last round at all.  Didn't like the match-ups nor the situations, except for Carlton.  A week has gone by and washed that away though.

    Going to be fun to get back at it. 
    Reply
    Should be a great round of footy.  I didn't like last round at all.  Didn't like the match-ups nor the situations, except for Carlton.  A week has gone by and washed that away though.

    Going to be fun to get back at it. 
     
    binomial
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2012 - 3:16 AM ET #8

    i like hawthorn.

    dont think tippett is going to play walker might be back. like adelaide also.

    dont mind richmond first thoughts even if carlton get a couple back.
    Reply
    i like hawthorn.

    dont think tippett is going to play walker might be back. like adelaide also.

    dont mind richmond first thoughts even if carlton get a couple back.
     
    dingodogg
    dingodogg
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2012 - 9:36 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Django:

    Bobby's surely going to be on the other side of this one, but I have a feeling the Crows upset the Cats down in Geelong. Crows with the points or Cats 1-39, should be a close one.

    North are averaging about 45 points more than Melbourne a game. North battling for a finals 8 spot could use a percentage boost. Melbourne probably start tanking for bottom position so they don't need to use a first round pick on Viney and hope GWS and Gold Coast can get another two wins, both have Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast play each other in rd20. Although if Melbourne lose both games, that leaves them 2nd last on percentage as it's unlikely the loser of Suns and Giants (probably Giants) wins one of their remaining games given the draw. Giants could really screw Melbourne again by making them waste a first round pick on a father son they've invested a lot into.

    Regardless, North by lots. Over 10 goals.

    Collingwood spread will be huge, think the bounce back after last week and really punish the Giants. Pies by 150+

    If Carlton get a Henderson, Kreuzer and possibly Waite back they should end Richmonds finals chances. Carlton with the points

    Sydney should put on a clinic against the Suns. Swans to cover

    Port Adelaide off a trip to Darwin, had to work hard to run over Melbourne in the final quarter. Freo had a training drill against an undermanned Giants. Freo need this to stay in touch with North and with 3% gain in percentage bump North out of the 8.

    Saints will be far too good for the Bulldogs, Saints need this to keep finals chances alive, they have almost assured wins over GWS and Melbourne to come but need to be able get wins over Collingwood, Cats and Carlton to fight for a finals berth.

    Eagles should get a big win here, back at home coming off two tough losses and the revenge factor for the Lions shock upset earlier in the season.

    That line is a bit high at -31.5 though. I think I'll lay off backing that one. Lions haven't been too bad and could keep it respectable. Maybe a play on the Eagles Team Total over 80-90, depending on weather.





     

    Henderson out for the season... blues season is rooted

     

    Good luck mate!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Django:

    Bobby's surely going to be on the other side of this one, but I have a feeling the Crows upset the Cats down in Geelong. Crows with the points or Cats 1-39, should be a close one.

    North are averaging about 45 points more than Melbourne a game. North battling for a finals 8 spot could use a percentage boost. Melbourne probably start tanking for bottom position so they don't need to use a first round pick on Viney and hope GWS and Gold Coast can get another two wins, both have Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast play each other in rd20. Although if Melbourne lose both games, that leaves them 2nd last on percentage as it's unlikely the loser of Suns and Giants (probably Giants) wins one of their remaining games given the draw. Giants could really screw Melbourne again by making them waste a first round pick on a father son they've invested a lot into.

    Regardless, North by lots. Over 10 goals.

    Collingwood spread will be huge, think the bounce back after last week and really punish the Giants. Pies by 150+

    If Carlton get a Henderson, Kreuzer and possibly Waite back they should end Richmonds finals chances. Carlton with the points

    Sydney should put on a clinic against the Suns. Swans to cover

    Port Adelaide off a trip to Darwin, had to work hard to run over Melbourne in the final quarter. Freo had a training drill against an undermanned Giants. Freo need this to stay in touch with North and with 3% gain in percentage bump North out of the 8.

    Saints will be far too good for the Bulldogs, Saints need this to keep finals chances alive, they have almost assured wins over GWS and Melbourne to come but need to be able get wins over Collingwood, Cats and Carlton to fight for a finals berth.

    Eagles should get a big win here, back at home coming off two tough losses and the revenge factor for the Lions shock upset earlier in the season.

    That line is a bit high at -31.5 though. I think I'll lay off backing that one. Lions haven't been too bad and could keep it respectable. Maybe a play on the Eagles Team Total over 80-90, depending on weather.





     

    Henderson out for the season... blues season is rooted

     

    Good luck mate!

     
    Django
    Django
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2012 - 10:02 AM ET #10

    Henderson was listed as under test the other night on the Carlton injury list. That is a tough loss for em. Still I can't convince myself that betting on Richmond is a good idea.
    Reply
    Henderson was listed as under test the other night on the Carlton injury list. That is a tough loss for em. Still I can't convince myself that betting on Richmond is a good idea.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2012 - 2:14 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by dingodogg:

     

    Henderson out for the season... blues season is rooted

     

    Good luck mate!



    Dingo!  Take that avatar down!  How am I supposed to make my tips staring at that!!! 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by dingodogg:

     

    Henderson out for the season... blues season is rooted

     

    Good luck mate!



    Dingo!  Take that avatar down!  How am I supposed to make my tips staring at that!!! 
     
    Django
    Django
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2012 - 6:53 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



    Dingo!  Take that avatar down!  How am I supposed to make my tips staring at that!!! 


    HoH are you really Bruce McAvaney?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



    Dingo!  Take that avatar down!  How am I supposed to make my tips staring at that!!! 


    HoH are you really Bruce McAvaney?
     
     
    dingodogg
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2012 - 9:51 AM ET #13

    thanks for insight Django. i like alot!

    my picks:

    Hawthorn -28.5 (under the roof in perfect conditions hawks could win by 50+)

    Adelaide +8.5 (no scarlett no geelong)

    North Melbourne -39.5 (need % will win by 50+)

    Fremantle -7.5 (huge ins this week - fyfe, mayne, dawson)

    Sydney -45.5 (if they're serious about the premiership this year, they have to beat GC win by 50+)


    West Coast -31.5 (i like the revenge factor here)

    good luck all!

    Reply

    thanks for insight Django. i like alot!

    my picks:

    Hawthorn -28.5 (under the roof in perfect conditions hawks could win by 50+)

    Adelaide +8.5 (no scarlett no geelong)

    North Melbourne -39.5 (need % will win by 50+)

    Fremantle -7.5 (huge ins this week - fyfe, mayne, dawson)

    Sydney -45.5 (if they're serious about the premiership this year, they have to beat GC win by 50+)


    West Coast -31.5 (i like the revenge factor here)

    good luck all!

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