• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • NFL Prediction Prices
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
      • Politics
        • Back
        • Politics
        • Politics Home
        • Presidential Election Odds
        • Midterm Election Odds
        • House Midterm Odds
        • Senate Midterm Odds
        • Texas Midterm Odds
        • Michigan Midterm Odds
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Card Crush
          • Casino.click
          • Chanced Casino
          • Crown Coins Casino
          • FreeSpin Casino
          • LoneStar
          • McLuck
          • Mega Bonanza Casino
          • PlayFame
          • Pulsz
          • Stake.us
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • Cloudbet Promo Code
          • RainBet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Thrill Promo Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Kalshi Referral Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • Polymarket Referral Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • Betr Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
      • Gemini Predictions Promo Code
    • NFL Week 8
      NFL Week 8
      • NFL Odds
      • NFL Picks
      • NFL Prediction Markets
      • NFL Betting Sites
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | Other

    AFL Round 17 Lines & Leans

    Django
    HeadOverHeart
    binomial
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 982
    Posts: 12
     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2012 - 7:31 AM ET #1


    Essendon 1.80
    -3.5

    Collingwood 1.98
    Hawthorn 1.87

    Adelaide 1.45
    West Coast 2.85
    -14.5

    Gold Coast 3.60
    Brisbane 1.31
    -24.5

    Western Bulldogs 2.85
    Carlton -15.5
    -15.5

    Melbourne 2.25
    Port Adelaide 1.67
    -7.5

    Sydney 1.39
    St.Kilda 3.10
    -17.5

    Richmond 2.20
    North Melbourne 1.69
    -4.5

    Fremantle 1.00
    Greater Western Sydney 21.00
    -84.5

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Essendon 1.80
    -3.5

    Collingwood 1.98
    Hawthorn 1.87

    Adelaide 1.45
    West Coast 2.85
    -14.5

    Gold Coast 3.60
    Brisbane 1.31
    -24.5

    Western Bulldogs 2.85
    Carlton -15.5
    -15.5

    Melbourne 2.25
    Port Adelaide 1.67
    -7.5

    Sydney 1.39
    St.Kilda 3.10
    -17.5

    Richmond 2.20
    North Melbourne 1.69
    -4.5

    Fremantle 1.00
    Greater Western Sydney 21.00
    -84.5

     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2012 - 7:33 AM ET #2

    Stupid forum, text was supposed to be centred and it mysteriously deleted the Geelong bit


    Geelong 2.05
    Essendon 1.80
    -3.5
    Reply
    Stupid forum, text was supposed to be centred and it mysteriously deleted the Geelong bit


    Geelong 2.05
    Essendon 1.80
    -3.5
     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2012 - 8:17 AM ET #3

    Firstly I like Essendon to beat the Cats, based of recent form and given it's at Etihad.

    Think Collingwood will beat Hawthorn sans Buddy.

    Not sure about Adelaide and West Coast. I feel the Eagles may bounce back after last week and Adelaide have a down week after such a big win.

    Brisbane should beat Gold Coast, I think it will be close. Brisbane 1-39 for me.

    Bulldogs and Carlton is a scrub match. Won't be surprised to see Bulldogs get the upset of the round here.

    Port should kill Melbourne up in Darwin. -7.5 seems very low. Is it a trap?

    Swans to continue on with their juggernaut and roll over the Saints. Swans to cover and 40+, again... Don't scoff HoH, you heathen

    Even though they suck balls Richmond may bounce back after getting done by the Suns. If it's a dry day I think Over anything under 200 is the play on that.

    Think Fremantle are giving up too many points here. Giants to bounce back with a somewhat more respectable loss.

    Disclaimer: These leans are influenced by Wild Turkey and Cola.








    Reply
    Firstly I like Essendon to beat the Cats, based of recent form and given it's at Etihad.

    Think Collingwood will beat Hawthorn sans Buddy.

    Not sure about Adelaide and West Coast. I feel the Eagles may bounce back after last week and Adelaide have a down week after such a big win.

    Brisbane should beat Gold Coast, I think it will be close. Brisbane 1-39 for me.

    Bulldogs and Carlton is a scrub match. Won't be surprised to see Bulldogs get the upset of the round here.

    Port should kill Melbourne up in Darwin. -7.5 seems very low. Is it a trap?

    Swans to continue on with their juggernaut and roll over the Saints. Swans to cover and 40+, again... Don't scoff HoH, you heathen

    Even though they suck balls Richmond may bounce back after getting done by the Suns. If it's a dry day I think Over anything under 200 is the play on that.

    Think Fremantle are giving up too many points here. Giants to bounce back with a somewhat more respectable loss.

    Disclaimer: These leans are influenced by Wild Turkey and Cola.








     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 22502
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2012 - 12:12 PM ET #4

    I didn't have time to look at the AFL wagering for this round. 

    Just glancing though, I like Carlton -13.5 (line has dropped two points as people hit the Dogs).

    Don't have any other real feel for anything else, even the Swans match,  Hard to tell how the Swans will come out after that emotional win last round with a Saints side fighting for its finals lives.

    Good luck to all who venture in the pool this round!  I'll just take a shot with the Blues -13.5. 
    Reply
    I didn't have time to look at the AFL wagering for this round. 

    Just glancing though, I like Carlton -13.5 (line has dropped two points as people hit the Dogs).

    Don't have any other real feel for anything else, even the Swans match,  Hard to tell how the Swans will come out after that emotional win last round with a Saints side fighting for its finals lives.

    Good luck to all who venture in the pool this round!  I'll just take a shot with the Blues -13.5. 
     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 1:10 AM ET #5

    Bulldogs beat Carlton last year at Etihad on a similar line and just got thrashed by North, while they should be fired up I think this is a tough spot for em with Judd, Walker, Kreuzer and Henderson out Carlton will have to rely on small forwards like Betts and Garlett which favours the Bulldogs smaller running brigade. Lake should shut down Thornton, who's only played 5 games this year and if that happens Carlton really have no other tall options and their attacking options will crumble. I can see Carlton winning a close one. I'd take the 1-39 over the points.

    It's a worry Bulldogs completely dropped off in recent weeks and I think they'll be wanting to make amends for only playing 2 quarters of footy last week against the Hawks.

    I really like the Dogs to win this SU and maybe even 40+ @ 12/1


    Reply
    Bulldogs beat Carlton last year at Etihad on a similar line and just got thrashed by North, while they should be fired up I think this is a tough spot for em with Judd, Walker, Kreuzer and Henderson out Carlton will have to rely on small forwards like Betts and Garlett which favours the Bulldogs smaller running brigade. Lake should shut down Thornton, who's only played 5 games this year and if that happens Carlton really have no other tall options and their attacking options will crumble. I can see Carlton winning a close one. I'd take the 1-39 over the points.

    It's a worry Bulldogs completely dropped off in recent weeks and I think they'll be wanting to make amends for only playing 2 quarters of footy last week against the Hawks.

    I really like the Dogs to win this SU and maybe even 40+ @ 12/1


     
    binomial
    binomial
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2007
    Posts: 1252
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 1:59 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by Django:

    Firstly I like Essendon to beat the Cats, based of recent form and given it's at Etihad.

    Think Collingwood will beat Hawthorn sans Buddy.

    Not sure about Adelaide and West Coast. I feel the Eagles may bounce back after last week and Adelaide have a down week after such a big win.

    Brisbane should beat Gold Coast, I think it will be close. Brisbane 1-39 for me.

    Bulldogs and Carlton is a scrub match. Won't be surprised to see Bulldogs get the upset of the round here.

    Port should kill Melbourne up in Darwin. -7.5 seems very low. Is it a trap?

    Swans to continue on with their juggernaut and roll over the Saints. Swans to cover and 40+, again... Don't scoff HoH, you heathen

    Even though they suck balls Richmond may bounce back after getting done by the Suns. If it's a dry day I think Over anything under 200 is the play on that.

    Think Fremantle are giving up too many points here. Giants to bounce back with a somewhat more respectable loss.

    Disclaimer: These leans are influenced by Wild Turkey and Cola.









    my early thoughts:

    Essendon look like they have a few more goals in them, although both sides missing alot of players.

    agree buddy out makes collingwood look a decect chance.

    initially i was thinking adelaide may win comfortably. they bring in six experienced players who are probably in their best 25 as i see it and drop weaker players. WC have some notable inclusions and their side looks alot better on paper but shuey is still missing making their midfield the weaker. maybe adelaide 1-39.

    was leaning GC. they have alot of their better players back and should be keen for it after a win unless too much partying. rich out for brisbane. GC beat them last year at home. GC has only be beaten by a bigger margin twice at home this season and kept five games fairly close. wouldn't be suprised if brisbane smashed them but i think i will play GC.

    WB pretty much refuse to kick the ball into their forward line and have the scores to show it 56, 56, 57 and 44 in the past four weeks. Carlton side looks weak but they should kick 10 goals or more and the way Bulldogs are playing doesn't seem that likely. Carlton 1-39.

    Hard to get too excited about backing Port but they do look the better side to me also.

    Sydney were pretty hideous last time out against SK so you think they would be up for this. however if you look at who Sydney has played in the last 8 weeks or so i think they are somewhat overated due to weak opposition. SK seem to vary between looking like they ordinary and about the 10th best team in the comp and top four material. maybe play sydney 1-39. maybe over a low total if it rains.

    agree richmond likely to play better. martin should be up for it after his suspension.

    GWS fielding a weak team tempted to believe fremantle cover.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Django:

    Firstly I like Essendon to beat the Cats, based of recent form and given it's at Etihad.

    Think Collingwood will beat Hawthorn sans Buddy.

    Not sure about Adelaide and West Coast. I feel the Eagles may bounce back after last week and Adelaide have a down week after such a big win.

    Brisbane should beat Gold Coast, I think it will be close. Brisbane 1-39 for me.

    Bulldogs and Carlton is a scrub match. Won't be surprised to see Bulldogs get the upset of the round here.

    Port should kill Melbourne up in Darwin. -7.5 seems very low. Is it a trap?

    Swans to continue on with their juggernaut and roll over the Saints. Swans to cover and 40+, again... Don't scoff HoH, you heathen

    Even though they suck balls Richmond may bounce back after getting done by the Suns. If it's a dry day I think Over anything under 200 is the play on that.

    Think Fremantle are giving up too many points here. Giants to bounce back with a somewhat more respectable loss.

    Disclaimer: These leans are influenced by Wild Turkey and Cola.









    my early thoughts:

    Essendon look like they have a few more goals in them, although both sides missing alot of players.

    agree buddy out makes collingwood look a decect chance.

    initially i was thinking adelaide may win comfortably. they bring in six experienced players who are probably in their best 25 as i see it and drop weaker players. WC have some notable inclusions and their side looks alot better on paper but shuey is still missing making their midfield the weaker. maybe adelaide 1-39.

    was leaning GC. they have alot of their better players back and should be keen for it after a win unless too much partying. rich out for brisbane. GC beat them last year at home. GC has only be beaten by a bigger margin twice at home this season and kept five games fairly close. wouldn't be suprised if brisbane smashed them but i think i will play GC.

    WB pretty much refuse to kick the ball into their forward line and have the scores to show it 56, 56, 57 and 44 in the past four weeks. Carlton side looks weak but they should kick 10 goals or more and the way Bulldogs are playing doesn't seem that likely. Carlton 1-39.

    Hard to get too excited about backing Port but they do look the better side to me also.

    Sydney were pretty hideous last time out against SK so you think they would be up for this. however if you look at who Sydney has played in the last 8 weeks or so i think they are somewhat overated due to weak opposition. SK seem to vary between looking like they ordinary and about the 10th best team in the comp and top four material. maybe play sydney 1-39. maybe over a low total if it rains.

    agree richmond likely to play better. martin should be up for it after his suspension.

    GWS fielding a weak team tempted to believe fremantle cover.
     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 3:42 AM ET #7

    binomial, great input

    Unless Bombers do a repeat performance of the St.Kilda game I don't see how the Cats will be able to keep up. Remember last year when Essendon won this at +50.5 dogs around 8/1 su! Bombers always seem to lift for the marquee games.

    It's not just Buddy out why I give Pies a chance. I think Collingwood's midfield is starting to gel again. Hawks on a streak of 6 relatively easy wins, could be getting a bit complacent. They've lost to Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and Geelong. Hawthorns only wins for the season against the top 8 final contenders was against the Saints before they hit their mid season stride and I think the Saints will be lucky to finish in the top 8. Other than Hawks beat Adelaide in round 3 at the MCG and an undermanned Collingwood in round 1. They've pretty much coasted through the season on an easy draw. Same could be said for Collingwood with an easy draw, them losing to Carlton twice is a worry, but they did beat Geelong twice, the Eagles and Bombers.

    Rich out is a problem for Brisbane but I think they can cover that gap. This is a Suns home game at the Gabba. Lions have shown a bit of form and since getting shown up on the first game Brisbane have had 2 big convincing wins over the Suns since. Suns coming off a win over Richmond could be a blessing or a curse. It could be a down week for em or they could be extra full of belief and will obviously want to win the QLD derby game. I think Lions by 20 - 30 points.

    Port lost to Melbourne last year in Darwin, but the sides were in much different shape. Port were an absolute rabble and Melbourne were showing some promise. Now tables have turned. Melbourne were -27.5 faves and didn't cover. Plus Port beat an inform Richmond up there as +27.5/$4.15 dogs. Melbourne with no Mitch Clarke and Jamar out will have no direction, Port should handily rout them.

    Sydney getting mugged by the Saints at Etihad is somewhat excusable. Middle to lower of the pack teams such Saints, Bulldogs and North that will occasionally upset the top/inform sides, especially interstate ones when they get their run on. Saints travelled to Brisbane last week and now to Sydney, they haven't had a good run with 6 day breaks and now a back 2 back interstate games. I think it equals out Swans travelling to Perth and the big emotional win will only serve as fuel to fire up and get revenge for the loss to the Saints. Swans are full of belief, Saints need everyone of their key players to fire and top opposition to have an off night.

    Just noticed all the outs for the GWS and the line is upto -95.5
    I'm not interested in a side like Fremantle to win by over 100 at around 2.00. While it is highly likely GWS get pwned with those omissions (Is Sheedy tanking?) it's not worth it.

    Will have a look at the Freo TT Over on Sunday morning.


    Reply
    binomial, great input

    Unless Bombers do a repeat performance of the St.Kilda game I don't see how the Cats will be able to keep up. Remember last year when Essendon won this at +50.5 dogs around 8/1 su! Bombers always seem to lift for the marquee games.

    It's not just Buddy out why I give Pies a chance. I think Collingwood's midfield is starting to gel again. Hawks on a streak of 6 relatively easy wins, could be getting a bit complacent. They've lost to Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and Geelong. Hawthorns only wins for the season against the top 8 final contenders was against the Saints before they hit their mid season stride and I think the Saints will be lucky to finish in the top 8. Other than Hawks beat Adelaide in round 3 at the MCG and an undermanned Collingwood in round 1. They've pretty much coasted through the season on an easy draw. Same could be said for Collingwood with an easy draw, them losing to Carlton twice is a worry, but they did beat Geelong twice, the Eagles and Bombers.

    Rich out is a problem for Brisbane but I think they can cover that gap. This is a Suns home game at the Gabba. Lions have shown a bit of form and since getting shown up on the first game Brisbane have had 2 big convincing wins over the Suns since. Suns coming off a win over Richmond could be a blessing or a curse. It could be a down week for em or they could be extra full of belief and will obviously want to win the QLD derby game. I think Lions by 20 - 30 points.

    Port lost to Melbourne last year in Darwin, but the sides were in much different shape. Port were an absolute rabble and Melbourne were showing some promise. Now tables have turned. Melbourne were -27.5 faves and didn't cover. Plus Port beat an inform Richmond up there as +27.5/$4.15 dogs. Melbourne with no Mitch Clarke and Jamar out will have no direction, Port should handily rout them.

    Sydney getting mugged by the Saints at Etihad is somewhat excusable. Middle to lower of the pack teams such Saints, Bulldogs and North that will occasionally upset the top/inform sides, especially interstate ones when they get their run on. Saints travelled to Brisbane last week and now to Sydney, they haven't had a good run with 6 day breaks and now a back 2 back interstate games. I think it equals out Swans travelling to Perth and the big emotional win will only serve as fuel to fire up and get revenge for the loss to the Saints. Swans are full of belief, Saints need everyone of their key players to fire and top opposition to have an off night.

    Just noticed all the outs for the GWS and the line is upto -95.5
    I'm not interested in a side like Fremantle to win by over 100 at around 2.00. While it is highly likely GWS get pwned with those omissions (Is Sheedy tanking?) it's not worth it.

    Will have a look at the Freo TT Over on Sunday morning.


     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 3:45 AM ET #8

    Actually my bad Suns and Lions is at Metricon, stupid footywire has it listed as Gabba...
    Reply
    Actually my bad Suns and Lions is at Metricon, stupid footywire has it listed as Gabba...
     
    Django
    Django
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1079
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 7:58 AM ET #9

    Fuck you Essendon. I'm gonna drive past Windy Hill and egg the pricks
    Reply
    Fuck you Essendon. I'm gonna drive past Windy Hill and egg the pricks
     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 22502
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 5:04 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Django:

    Bulldogs beat Carlton last year at Etihad on a similar line and just got thrashed by North, while they should be fired up I think this is a tough spot for em with Judd, Walker, Kreuzer and Henderson out Carlton will have to rely on small forwards like Betts and Garlett which favours the Bulldogs smaller running brigade. Lake should shut down Thornton, who's only played 5 games this year and if that happens Carlton really have no other tall options and their attacking options will crumble. I can see Carlton winning a close one. I'd take the 1-39 over the points.

    It's a worry Bulldogs completely dropped off in recent weeks and I think they'll be wanting to make amends for only playing 2 quarters of footy last week against the Hawks.

    I really like the Dogs to win this SU and maybe even 40+ @ 12/1




    Wha....wha.....WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT/!!!


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Django:

    Bulldogs beat Carlton last year at Etihad on a similar line and just got thrashed by North, while they should be fired up I think this is a tough spot for em with Judd, Walker, Kreuzer and Henderson out Carlton will have to rely on small forwards like Betts and Garlett which favours the Bulldogs smaller running brigade. Lake should shut down Thornton, who's only played 5 games this year and if that happens Carlton really have no other tall options and their attacking options will crumble. I can see Carlton winning a close one. I'd take the 1-39 over the points.

    It's a worry Bulldogs completely dropped off in recent weeks and I think they'll be wanting to make amends for only playing 2 quarters of footy last week against the Hawks.

    I really like the Dogs to win this SU and maybe even 40+ @ 12/1




    Wha....wha.....WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT/!!!


     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 22502
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2012 - 5:05 PM ET #11

    I still say the Carlton -13.5 bet is the play of the round.  Too many unknowns and weird match-ups this round to make any sense of it.

    Look at Geelong v. Essendon already?  Gonna be that kinda round, I reckon.

    If you play, go lightly.  Except on the Blues, of course. 
    Reply
    I still say the Carlton -13.5 bet is the play of the round.  Too many unknowns and weird match-ups this round to make any sense of it.

    Look at Geelong v. Essendon already?  Gonna be that kinda round, I reckon.

    If you play, go lightly.  Except on the Blues, of course. 
     
     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 22502
    Posted: Jul. 21, 2012 - 5:06 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    I still say the Carlton -13.5 bet is the play of the round.  Too many unknowns and weird match-ups this round to make any sense of it.

    Look at Geelong v. Essendon already?  Gonna be that kinda round, I reckon.

    If you play, go lightly.  Except on the Blues, of course. 


    Carlton -13.5

    One and done, winner and dinner for Round 17! 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    I still say the Carlton -13.5 bet is the play of the round.  Too many unknowns and weird match-ups this round to make any sense of it.

    Look at Geelong v. Essendon already?  Gonna be that kinda round, I reckon.

    If you play, go lightly.  Except on the Blues, of course. 


    Carlton -13.5

    One and done, winner and dinner for Round 17! 
    All Forums | Other

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵 463,078
    • PART DEUX 256
    • Serious Streak Survivor Strategies 1,918,634
    • Friday 10/30/2026 635
    • 🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets 287,689
    • BEAT Your book 125,884
    • NCAA WEEK 9 *** Wet Dream on Covers Street *** 6,784
    • NFL LOCKED IN! 111,072
    • Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 2,323
    • Week 9 Money 9,770

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Ultimate Race
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Privacy Choices Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo
    Covers Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.