AFL Rd 6

Record: Normal Plays 3-2

 

This week is interesting...some of the games look a little too easy like Bris, Geel & Hawks, but I'm not taking any of games, just simply my gut says that they could be trouble.

 

And on a quick note before my picks for this weekend, poor Libba.  Even though he, along with Brad Hardie are laughed at when we all discuss Brownlow winners, no brownlow medalist should be forced to sell their medal, his wife should be ashamed of herself, some people should have a good hard look at themselves in the minor!!  Just for the people who don't know what I'm talking about...Tony Liberatore's soon to be ex-wife is demanding in the devoice that he sell all sporting memorabilia (including his brownlow medal) and put the funds in a trust for their childrens future.  I know it's for their kids, but some things shouldn't be for sale!!

 

Anyway, onto my games, firstly my POW:

 

Western Bulldogs -25.5. 

 

Don't really like playing to many POW's throughout the year but this game looks to good to pass up. 

 

Important note - This game is only a bet if Johnson lines up for the Bulldogs.  Sorry if that can stuff a few people around, but that's gambling, and thus important factors involved in capping games can only be left up to the last minute as he is only a 50/50 chance of playing, and I need him in this side to help me win my bet.

 

Now for the reasons for the pick:

 

- This has been West Coasts total game scores this year, 92, 57, 73, 45 & 104.  Average = 74. Of the above games the to highest scores have been at home, but the 104 last week only looks good on paper as they kicked the last 7 goals against Port who simply stopped.

- The lowest two game totals in 57 & 45 were against stiff opposition in Adel & Syd to do know that fact...just wanted to state that I know this fact

- This is the Bulldogs game totals this year 126,161,125, 128 & 130.  Average = 134.  The difference is a massive 60 ponts, ten goals ladies and gentleman!

- The Bulldogs haven't ventured out of Melb yet, with 4 out their 5 games at Telstra Dome which is where this game is played

-  The Eagles are starting to debut new players (one this week), with Ebert playing his 3rd, Kennedy coming in for his first game for the Eagles after playing 22 average games for Carlton (but in his defence Carl were bad at the time), but then again the supply won't be great from this average midfield.

- Cross, Griffen & Cooney (along with West feeding the ball out) are now coming into their prime. They have added strength in the Ruck with Hudson, and with Seaby omitted for the Eagles just means Cox will have to do more then his usual, and with the pace of this game he might be a little puffed...

- And one final factor, I wonder if anyone remembers how bad the Eagles are at travelling during the regular season....

 

Now for my normal game:

 

 

Not going to go into many factors regarding this game as I simply think Adelaide will out perform the Blues, they are a very professional unit with an exceptional backline which should contain Fev.  Their midfield will have fun shutting down Judd & Stevens.  My main conern is their scoring, thus don't expect this game to be high flowing, but I do expect them to win by 20-30 points which I think is a comfortable enough for me to pick'em here.

 

Thoughts on the above more than welcome.

 

GL everyone on your games this weekend, and I look forward to watching the Anzac game tomorrow between the Bombers & the Pies.  Time to head off to bed as the family are up bright and early for the dawn service...Lest we forget! 

good luck with your picks miracle

I am thinking about playing Carlton or staying away.

 

- I thought Adelaide was ordinairy to poor in the second half last week

- Knights back is a reasonable in, however I think they are alot better with Reilly in and he is still missing

- After the first couple of games Adelaide are back to scoring around 10 goals with low level of inside 50s. Fremantle game up 111 to Collingwood, 112 to Hawthorn and 137 to Richmond yet Adelaide could only muster 88 @ home.

- Carlton's defence appears to be getting it together in the last two weeks

- been a couple of close ones, but by my records Adelaide has only covered one game this season suggesting they are over rated

- Adelaide has won 4 games @ the MCG in the last 3 seasons (heard this on the tv, pretty sure this is what they said, not sure how many they have played there)

- i would say Adelaide defence has the advantage over Carlton forwards, Carlton the advantage in the midfield and Adelaide forward line v Carlton defence is fairly even.

- Carlton looked fairly sloppy last week but i would give them the benefit of the doubt and say they were playing to the level of their opposition