AFL Rd 19

Shame to see the season in it's last stretch here, but let's see if we can make some more good calls.

i will keep on eye your infos......for my parlays.  

Hi Eric, nice writeup, barely anything I like on the board this week so might be a bit quiet. I think I might stick to the 1 quarter and 1/2 plays as they were so successful last week.

I love the dogs/port over, I'll be on that. I think that'll be a highly fast paced game as both teams play that style. I think 180 is a bit low as I see this going closer to 200

I don't love the other plays, but I'm not against them either. Just not happy with them enough to bet for the sake of betting.

Adelaide play well at home.

I wouldn't touch Carlton in a million years, even if Pies are playing terrible. They can't keep a game within 10 goals to save themselves, lean Pies

I could never tip against Hawks, they are too good, but Eagles at home are a force, think you're on the right side though.

GL TO ALL, we'll see if we can get a few new plays closer to gametime

Good write up.

I like Richmond with the line. I think they cover easily. Adelaide suck. They got towelled up by an average swans last week.

I lean Hawthorn as west coasts goal kicking is pathetic and you can't afford to miss those shots against a side like hawthorn.

The other games ypu have mentioned I wouldn't touch.

Good luck

Im with you on Hawks, they're one of those teams that don't care where they play, home or away, they're very good regardless, you wouldn't want to go into a game knowing your bet is on hawks to lose. I'm hoping they wake up after that loss to Tigers and I think they will, despite vsing Eagles in Perth who are very very good.

Something is telling me to lean Crows. Friday night game at home, huge crowd, I think it will be very close. I love the Tigers but I'm still not convinced. They can be phenomenal one week and the next you're wondering what's going on...

One trick I've used for the tigers the past 2 years is if you like them, but they are favs, don't bet.
The have a good winning record as a dog, and a fairly bad record as a fav.
but I'm going to throw the book out for this week and back the boys in.
IMO line would be around 15-20 if the tigers were at home

No doubt in my mind if this was at the 'G that Tigers line would be like -22.5

Last Crows game at home they played extremely well against Port - Adelaide have quite a decent team.

I think I might sit back and enjoy this one, good luck with your Tigers bet, looking forward to seeing them and the Dogs in the finals this year.

Just realized Crows have a chance to make 8, so will be fighting. Do Tiges have something similar to motivate them (making 4?, eg)?

Also, feels like quite a few big player in/outs... change your views for any of these matches?

at first i thought that tigers winning less than a goal was absolutely ridiculous. i thought they should win by at around 2 goals and a few behinds. but now that i've seen this post, i'm starting to have second thoughts.

biggest factor for tigers i think would be the hangover feeling. if they get too cocky, they might lose out on an adelaide side fighting for #8 spot. might go for an NRL game instead for today since they start at about the same time

Na i dont take much notice of the ins and outs, mostly I dont think it affects my opinion on what the outcome of the game would have been.

I've come full circle on this now, and am taking the Tigers. Tigers are a top 2-3 team (sorry Freo), Crows are where they are because of ability.

Tigers will be focused, k ow the Crows will play them hard, but whereas Tigers can cover and beat Hawks because of ability and physicality, Crows can't matchup with Tigers.

Richmond -2.4 1H

Oops, again:

Tiges -2.5 1H
Tiges -5.5

BOL fellas

GL all, sorry I'm on the other side with this one

Smart mate... i should have stayed where i was at half circle... ;)

Damn.
"Never bet tigers when they are favs"

Thanks for that, and just checked the finalsiren.com for MCG results recently.  

Well, I'm banning myself from Friday matches.  Just a horrendous record.  Think my excitement for the Rd builds too much during the week and I just dont see clearly through the emotions for that first match.

Plays for today:

Pies v. Blues

Two pitiful teams of late, so even though one is better than the other, it shouldn't be laying 6 goals.  Especially vs. a team it has played so many times, and for the second time this season.  Yes, Pies are getting desperate, and they can pull this off, so I'll hedge the play with some other lines, hoping to hit 2 of 3.  Blues have done well 2Q lately, running at an even margin since Rd 9.  Next best is 3Q at 78.  Pies are equally awful in 1Q as Blues, so will take the 2+ goals 1H.  And playing the Under with the teams' recent averages totaling 130s.  Last week's MCG matches were ridiculously low.  Last time it went over 168 was for one match in Rd 14, Pies v. Hawks.  Think Pies score more than their recent avg of mid-70s, maybe up to 90 at best.

Plays: Blues 2Q-L +7.5, 1H-L +13.5, L +29.5, Under 173.5

Dogs v. Power

Momentum is with the Doggies, playing a "great brand of footy" (whatever that means, lol).  Like the line as they are at home, rematch against a team that beat them by 38 earlier in the season, and play more physically.  Love the Over as both teams can score, and the Power's defense is pretty weak. 

Plays: WB -6.5, Over 180.5

Hawks @ Eagles

Whilst the Hawks disappointed last week, my opinion hasn't changed (as I let it change for the Tiges last night, argh).  I'll back them (most) every week and take the hit when it comes. Best team in the comp, focused after the egg they laid last week, and will play 100% start to finish.  Line has moved significantly already, so just locked it.

Play: Hawks -10.5

Like the Swans, too, but not playing it.

@River : thanks for the advice on Tiges as faves (that I ignored, of course).  Logging that one in my book now.  :)

Right-o

Let's kick Saturday off with Collingwood v Carlton 1Q Total Points under 43.5

GL TO ALL

I like that one, tailing it.

hi  guys why westcoast totals only 156.5.  i feel little low this.  

That's money fellas

Terrible weather in perth t2

Good win, missed my 2Q play even though it was looking solid half way thru term.

Doggies play looking good but pissed i didn't grab the live +15.5 when Power got iff to a fast start. Was working out and figured Doggies would take a bit longer to get going lol...

Live play Doggies -32.5

Pretty sure I'll get one of these 2, and happy to pay the vig if so:

Live bets: Doggies -4.5 3Q and -4.5 4Q