Had a bad feeling about this round, it appears with good reason. Not very confident about these and half expect to go 0-3.
Anyway. Today I switch to hating on SA football.
Carlton +7.5 1u
listed some reasons in Miracle's thread.
Western Bulldogs -25.5 1u
Western Bulldogs have beaten Essendon and St Kilda by more at TD, who I would say are playing better football.
West back for dogs.
Given the way WC's excperienced mid field players like Embley, Braun, Kerr and Fletcher (dropped) I think dogs should dominate.
St Kilda +10.5 1u
Wet and windy forecast for Adelaide. Last time Port saw rain in Adelaide they freaked out badly. These conditions (if they occur, I get the weather wrong alot more than I get it right) would advantage St Kilda as Port will find it difficult to play their usual style.
Baker is a valuable inclusion for St Kilda if my predicted conditions occur.
Saints have a poor record in Adelaide, even still I think this line is too big given Port's record and their continually going missing for large parts of games.
Had a bad feeling about this round, it appears with good reason. Not very confident about these and half expect to go 0-3.
Anyway. Today I switch to hating on SA football.
Carlton +7.5 1u
listed some reasons in Miracle's thread.
Western Bulldogs -25.5 1u
Western Bulldogs have beaten Essendon and St Kilda by more at TD, who I would say are playing better football.
West back for dogs.
Given the way WC's excperienced mid field players like Embley, Braun, Kerr and Fletcher (dropped) I think dogs should dominate.
St Kilda +10.5 1u
Wet and windy forecast for Adelaide. Last time Port saw rain in Adelaide they freaked out badly. These conditions (if they occur, I get the weather wrong alot more than I get it right) would advantage St Kilda as Port will find it difficult to play their usual style.
Baker is a valuable inclusion for St Kilda if my predicted conditions occur.
Saints have a poor record in Adelaide, even still I think this line is too big given Port's record and their continually going missing for large parts of games.
Agree with the Port game about the conditions... it is getting gradly worst as the day goes on and by the time they play it could be really ugly!
But the one thing I have to mention is that the last time these two sides played in Adelaide, Port gave them a touch up 43 points (April 27, 2007), and I know that was last year, but if my memory serves me correct that was in the wet, but GL as I will be staying well away from this game...injuries to the Saints and inconsistancy from Port is enough of a reason.
P.S. Love the Bulldogs, but not your Carl pick (as per my thread)
Agree with the Port game about the conditions... it is getting gradly worst as the day goes on and by the time they play it could be really ugly!
But the one thing I have to mention is that the last time these two sides played in Adelaide, Port gave them a touch up 43 points (April 27, 2007), and I know that was last year, but if my memory serves me correct that was in the wet, but GL as I will be staying well away from this game...injuries to the Saints and inconsistancy from Port is enough of a reason.
P.S. Love the Bulldogs, but not your Carl pick (as per my thread)
Yep take a look at Round Five last season, Port Adelaide won by 53 when favoured by 13.5 on FNF, and conditions that night were appalling. On that occasion it was St. Kilda who were exposed by the wet weather, given they play the majority of their matches at the TD.
Port are probably going to be value over the next few weeks, and I think they could even get to 6-6 mid-season. I have them winning this but the margin of victory could be single digits.
Yep take a look at Round Five last season, Port Adelaide won by 53 when favoured by 13.5 on FNF, and conditions that night were appalling. On that occasion it was St. Kilda who were exposed by the wet weather, given they play the majority of their matches at the TD.
Port are probably going to be value over the next few weeks, and I think they could even get to 6-6 mid-season. I have them winning this but the margin of victory could be single digits.
Port line has jump three points in favor of Port. -6.5 to -9.5.
St. Kilda has hinted that they will be marking the Power all day in an attempt to slow the game down (ala the Round One game versus Sydney). With the weather, looks to be a solid Under for the match, although I can't play that proposition, so am off it.
So, why the jump in the lines?
Port line has jump three points in favor of Port. -6.5 to -9.5.
St. Kilda has hinted that they will be marking the Power all day in an attempt to slow the game down (ala the Round One game versus Sydney). With the weather, looks to be a solid Under for the match, although I can't play that proposition, so am off it.
As usual I got the weather wrong. That said I thought St Kilda were terrible last night and the score flattered them alot.
Hawthorn 1-40 1u
If Richmond play hard I think they will keep it to less than 40, can't see them winning though.
Bit suprised how quickly people have jumped off Sydney. They were within a goal of Geelong in the fourth quarter last week before running out of juice and prior to that they were looking top 4. That said I am leaning Kangaroos although their defence could be stretched with Gibson and Pratt out.
'underdogs keep it close with Anzac spirit' multi
chasing a positive round with the following:
Brisbane 1-40
Kangaroos 1-40
Hawthorn 1-40
0.5u @ $14.01
As usual I got the weather wrong. That said I thought St Kilda were terrible last night and the score flattered them alot.
Hawthorn 1-40 1u
If Richmond play hard I think they will keep it to less than 40, can't see them winning though.
Bit suprised how quickly people have jumped off Sydney. They were within a goal of Geelong in the fourth quarter last week before running out of juice and prior to that they were looking top 4. That said I am leaning Kangaroos although their defence could be stretched with Gibson and Pratt out.
Not really. I got $2.65 1-40 which I though was ok value.
As I have said in previous weeks, there is not that much difference between this Melbourne side and ones that have gone deep into the finals in recent years. If they all returned to their best form they could win by 10 goals plus. The problem is mental in my opinion, lack of effort, belief and terrible execution.
Bate, Garland and Warnock are reasonable ins, the latter two haven't been their worst players this season.
Not really. I got $2.65 1-40 which I though was ok value.
As I have said in previous weeks, there is not that much difference between this Melbourne side and ones that have gone deep into the finals in recent years. If they all returned to their best form they could win by 10 goals plus. The problem is mental in my opinion, lack of effort, belief and terrible execution.
Bate, Garland and Warnock are reasonable ins, the latter two haven't been their worst players this season.
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