Posted:
#1
After jagging a few winners last sunday i misguidely think i can pick every game.
all 1u except for Hawthorn and Brisbane which i am playing 1.5u
Carlton +26.5
Geelong have failed to cover their last eight by my records and still seem to be getting a little too much respect here. As much as i dislike him, hard not to have Chapman in the top ten players in the comp at the moment so a significant out.
Carlton know how to put in a shocker and it wouldn't suprise me if they lost by 10 goals plus, but my guess is they will go ok here and score a few goals against the Geelong defence which is struggling.
Hawthorn -8.5
Incentive, teams and Hawthorn's form make this look a no brainer to me.
Hawthorn weren't bad last week. Port played well but they still could easily have won if they kicked straight.
West Coast +46.5
West Coast have only lost two games by 40+ all season and one of them was by 41. Some danger of them putting the cue in the rack for the season, but I tend to think they won't.
WB looked pretty ordinairy last week, in the second half in particular. Higgins and Murphy out leaves them missing class, plus Welsh out doensn't help their forward line. More to play for but I don't think that will necessarily translate into a big win.
Brisbane +9.5
Essendon are barely going and can't see them being reenergised after a 6 day turn around coming back from WA.
Brisbane have put in a few bad performances, but with one exception when they played Geelong in Geelong they have bounced back the following week and covered handily. I like their chances of doing so again here.
Adelaide v Collingwood
Not sure about this one yet.
Was thinking about Collingwood 1-39 $2.70, but on the other hand despite Collingwood having an impressive record in interstate games, tough to bet against Adelaide at home.
NM 1-39
NM moved their best two players in Harvey and Petrie to the forward line for alot of the game last week and would have kicked a decent score if not for 0.9 in the last quarter.
Melbourne have been pretty hideous against poor opposition in the last two games. Even so, I don't think NM have the quality to dominate them given they get some decent players back.
Sydney 1-39
Could be a let down for Sydney after a tough loss to St Kilda, however could also show them what they are capable of.
Richmond find themselves with a draw and two wins from their last three despite playing pretty hopelessly. Hard to believe they can win three in a row.
Port 1-39
Rain and wind forecast.
If port play like they did last week they should have too much for fremantle. If they win finals looking fairly likely, whereas a loss and a win be either essedon or hawthorn sees them back out of the 8. Hard to be confident given how often they have played poorly the last two seasons, but their record in the battle of the wharfies is solid.
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