AFL - Round 3

I skipped last week. Probably not a bad one to skip. Lot's of articles and commentary around saying high scoring games are the future and then lots of lots scoring games and upsets.

Record is 1-0.

Looking at tonight's game (Port vs Drug cheats). What is notable is when Port have thrashed teams it has resulted in the total going under. 

Port & Freo Game 122-53 with a total set at 183.5.

Port & Saints Game 112-49 with a total set at 177.5

There have been 4 games in recent times with the total between 180-190 and they are split on the OU. 

Port could easily score 120 points in this game. Port don't defend but this Essendon team is so damn awful. I can't trust them to score another 66 points. Essendon are not cohesive enough to play a running game without setting new records in clangers and Ports running game as well as 1 on 1 markups imo favours them.

I like the line. I don't buy into the injuries Port have. They have scoring options and the Dons defense is terrible. I don't buy the Dons having renewed confidence. The line is high sure compared to previous similar numbers but this is about the team (not numbers) and Dons are terrible.

I'm going with -40.5 @ $1.72.

Maybe more games this round depending on if I have the time.

GL to all.

I think we all know Saints don't play much at the MCG. What surprises me is that the total is far higher than their previous games at the MCG (159, 160, 174, 175) yet the line is only 2 goals. The Saints totals at the bigger grounds with the exception of DS is not really as low as you might think. On the Collingwood side when they get a total between 180 and 190 at the MCG they are 3 to 2 in the OU in recent times. The weather seems fine today so I am going to play OVER 182.5.

Crows are a fast running team, Tigers are a very defensive team. The total is high given Richmond as one of the teams yet the line is only 4.5. I'm not going to play it but would lean to the under. The total is the 2nd highest Adelaide have played to at Etihad. Four of those totals have been between 182 and 187 and were to faster scoring teams in the like of Collingwood and Western Bulldogs.

Sydney are my team. I hope this is not going to be the tight game people think it will be but will be a Buddy goal fest with Sydney canning the team of 1st rounders. So much for equalisation AFL. Sydney had to work its way into the market whilst GWS has been gifted players. I hope they stay out of the 8 for years to come. I'm going to play OVER 176.5.