Posted:
#1
Last RD: 3-8
YTD: 126-119
Carlton +10.5
YTD: 126-119
Carlton +10.5
AFL - RD 20
Views: 740
Posts: 14
Posted:
#6
My thoughts and plays on the round... all lines next to games as at Wednesday (plays at time of play).
Richmond v. Collingwood +15.5
Don't have much of a feel on this one at all. Pies have got nice momentum, and were 4 straight ATS wins before caving to Roos. I reckon they maintain the pressure this round, though Darcy out is a concern (I believe he's out, maybe not confirmed yet). Tiges meanwhile under the spotlight as they haven't been for a while, and have started with some coaching changes. They probably keep this one close: they came within two goals of Doggies just 4 rounds ago.
No plays
Sydney v. Port -26.5
Port has good history at the SCG in the past few years, and we can see they still bring a contested style, though inconsistently. Power haven't covered consecutive games since Round 11, and they just walloped the Lions last round. Swans haven't covered their past 3 at home, with the performance against the Blues snapping them to attention last week against Freo (though many new players on that match v. Blues). Q1 ATS covers only were 4 straight until the Blues game. Most value is on Q1, and I'll weight accordingly. Swans totals are 2-7 Overs this year.
Plays: Swans 1Q -6.5 / Swans 1H -12.5 / Swans -26.5 / Under 171
GC v. GWS +41.5
This is a bit of a tough one, but I can't lay the points against a depleted Suns team that is bringing pressure still in games; at home. I think it's more likely than Giants cover, with the Suns falling away, probably in 2nd quarter. I do like the situational imbalance in Q1 ATS performances: Suns are 7-1 ATS at Metricon (Crows only non-cover) and Giants 2-7 on Away games (3 straight L run currently).
Play: GC 1Q +9.5
WB v. NM +7.5
Another toughy. I believe Roos will bring some intensity to this one, knowing they must get the win, facing 3 of the top 4 sides afterwards. Doggies just can't score, and Liberatore is doubtful.
I'll roll the dice at Etihad, as I think Roos win by more than 2 goals.
Play: Roos -7.5
Adel v. Brisbane -77.5
I fell for a Brisbane resurgence after the win over the Dons, but alas, they haven't changed. Crows are focused.
Play: Crows 1Q -18.5 / Crows -77.5 / Drop 1H play
Carlton v. STK +10.5
Blues have been playing disciplined, physical footy these past three rounds, and the Saints coming off a flat performance following a pretty solid stretch. Should be a good game. Blues are 4-2 ATS at the 'G, and 6-0 Q1 ATS there this season. But I think the Saints will come out firing after that loss.
Play: Blues +10.5
Geelong v. Essendon -65.5
This is a bizarre game in that I'm getting conflicting messages. First, my thoughts are Bombers cover this, as Geelong just haven't seemed that interested of late in putting teams away who continue to fight (allowing easy scores, missing easy goals). Cats have been favoured by >30 on 6 occasions this season. The only two they covered were early against each of the QLD teams - at Simonds. On each of the 4 remaining occasions, split evenly at MCG and Etihad, the best they could do was to miss the cover by 5 goals. One of those to the Bombers themselves in Round 4 at the 'G. Then you have Tin saying a 95% chance Bombers win by 90. I love those high probability forecasts. But unlike with the Crows, I don't think the Cats get up for this game and keep the pedal to the floor.
Play: Bombers +65.5
Richmond v. Collingwood +15.5
Don't have much of a feel on this one at all. Pies have got nice momentum, and were 4 straight ATS wins before caving to Roos. I reckon they maintain the pressure this round, though Darcy out is a concern (I believe he's out, maybe not confirmed yet). Tiges meanwhile under the spotlight as they haven't been for a while, and have started with some coaching changes. They probably keep this one close: they came within two goals of Doggies just 4 rounds ago.
No plays
Sydney v. Port -26.5
Port has good history at the SCG in the past few years, and we can see they still bring a contested style, though inconsistently. Power haven't covered consecutive games since Round 11, and they just walloped the Lions last round. Swans haven't covered their past 3 at home, with the performance against the Blues snapping them to attention last week against Freo (though many new players on that match v. Blues). Q1 ATS covers only were 4 straight until the Blues game. Most value is on Q1, and I'll weight accordingly. Swans totals are 2-7 Overs this year.
Plays: Swans 1Q -6.5 / Swans 1H -12.5 / Swans -26.5 / Under 171
GC v. GWS +41.5
This is a bit of a tough one, but I can't lay the points against a depleted Suns team that is bringing pressure still in games; at home. I think it's more likely than Giants cover, with the Suns falling away, probably in 2nd quarter. I do like the situational imbalance in Q1 ATS performances: Suns are 7-1 ATS at Metricon (Crows only non-cover) and Giants 2-7 on Away games (3 straight L run currently).
Play: GC 1Q +9.5
WB v. NM +7.5
Another toughy. I believe Roos will bring some intensity to this one, knowing they must get the win, facing 3 of the top 4 sides afterwards. Doggies just can't score, and Liberatore is doubtful.
I'll roll the dice at Etihad, as I think Roos win by more than 2 goals.
Play: Roos -7.5
Adel v. Brisbane -77.5
I fell for a Brisbane resurgence after the win over the Dons, but alas, they haven't changed. Crows are focused.
Play: Crows 1Q -18.5 / Crows -77.5 / Drop 1H play
Carlton v. STK +10.5
Blues have been playing disciplined, physical footy these past three rounds, and the Saints coming off a flat performance following a pretty solid stretch. Should be a good game. Blues are 4-2 ATS at the 'G, and 6-0 Q1 ATS there this season. But I think the Saints will come out firing after that loss.
Play: Blues +10.5
Geelong v. Essendon -65.5
This is a bizarre game in that I'm getting conflicting messages. First, my thoughts are Bombers cover this, as Geelong just haven't seemed that interested of late in putting teams away who continue to fight (allowing easy scores, missing easy goals). Cats have been favoured by >30 on 6 occasions this season. The only two they covered were early against each of the QLD teams - at Simonds. On each of the 4 remaining occasions, split evenly at MCG and Etihad, the best they could do was to miss the cover by 5 goals. One of those to the Bombers themselves in Round 4 at the 'G. Then you have Tin saying a 95% chance Bombers win by 90. I love those high probability forecasts. But unlike with the Crows, I don't think the Cats get up for this game and keep the pedal to the floor.
Play: Bombers +65.5
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