Well, knew that was a risk (Pies letting down after a series of wins and Roos desperate), but played it anyway. Should have left the +2.5. Pies showed fight at times, and dominated or led key stats, but otherwise fumbled about and missed easy shots.
Happy for Rod and Peekay, good plays in the end.
Target: it's in the Ts & Cs if they make an error, they can void the bet. I wasn't that keen on < a goal either side in any case, so shouldn't have re upped after the void.
But hey, it's the first of 9 games. 0-2 I start, hopefully I'll make smarter plays over the course of the round.
Well, knew that was a risk (Pies letting down after a series of wins and Roos desperate), but played it anyway. Should have left the +2.5. Pies showed fight at times, and dominated or led key stats, but otherwise fumbled about and missed easy shots.
Happy for Rod and Peekay, good plays in the end.
Target: it's in the Ts & Cs if they make an error, they can void the bet. I wasn't that keen on < a goal either side in any case, so shouldn't have re upped after the void.
But hey, it's the first of 9 games. 0-2 I start, hopefully I'll make smarter plays over the course of the round.
Updated plays on Swans game. Keeping 1q and 1h plays. Cancelled Swans -52.5 at 20% hit and the Under at 3% hit. New plays: Swans -46.5 Swans TT Iver 104.5
Updated plays on Swans game. Keeping 1q and 1h plays. Cancelled Swans -52.5 at 20% hit and the Under at 3% hit. New plays: Swans -46.5 Swans TT Iver 104.5
Disastrous weekend for me this far, mitigated by a few good/heavy plays to land at only -16% ROI for the round. Trying to simply get back to break-even for the round today, and banish this one from memory.
Essendon v. Brisbane -14.5 / 196.5 / ES Two 1-win teams face off for a "thriller" :) I still believe that this Lions team has given up on Leppa, so can't back them in any circumstance, much less away against a team that is playing with heart and more confidence by the round. I knew I would make a play on this match when news broke earlier in the week of the Lions captain getting upset at some comment, and claiming: "I'm not fat!". The captain! I believe he hasn't come out and supported the coach publicly (but am not certain). Lions are much worse 1H when away, over the past 3 away games averaging +37 1H and -2 2H. I'll bet 2X on the 1H play. Plays: Bombers 1H -7.5 / -14.5 / Under 196.5
Hawthorn v. Richmond -34.5 / 176.5 / MCG Tigers play the Hawks tough, but Hawks don't fuck around today with Sam Mitchell's 300th game. Play: Hawks -34.5
Port v. GWS PK / 167.5 / AO Line has come all the way in from +12 I think. There isn't much value here, but with Dixon out and the more talented team, I've got to play the Giants. Play: Giants for the win.
Good luck - Erich
Disastrous weekend for me this far, mitigated by a few good/heavy plays to land at only -16% ROI for the round. Trying to simply get back to break-even for the round today, and banish this one from memory.
Essendon v. Brisbane -14.5 / 196.5 / ES Two 1-win teams face off for a "thriller" :) I still believe that this Lions team has given up on Leppa, so can't back them in any circumstance, much less away against a team that is playing with heart and more confidence by the round. I knew I would make a play on this match when news broke earlier in the week of the Lions captain getting upset at some comment, and claiming: "I'm not fat!". The captain! I believe he hasn't come out and supported the coach publicly (but am not certain). Lions are much worse 1H when away, over the past 3 away games averaging +37 1H and -2 2H. I'll bet 2X on the 1H play. Plays: Bombers 1H -7.5 / -14.5 / Under 196.5
Hawthorn v. Richmond -34.5 / 176.5 / MCG Tigers play the Hawks tough, but Hawks don't fuck around today with Sam Mitchell's 300th game. Play: Hawks -34.5
Port v. GWS PK / 167.5 / AO Line has come all the way in from +12 I think. There isn't much value here, but with Dixon out and the more talented team, I've got to play the Giants. Play: Giants for the win.
That Dees line does look to be the play of the round. Depleted Suns team, off a nice win facing a superior team with pent-up rage over how the good play isn't translating to Ws. Feel like they're going to lay a 50 burger on them. Will definitely play this and/or an earlier line like 1Q if data supports.
Not too keen on the Cats line; I'd play the Doggies at the current line if anything. They get Stringer back along with another key dude. I guess there is just a lot of whackiness on both sides: how will the Dogs respond (I think they will very well, but could go opposite way), does one great Cat and Tomohawk performance start a trend? Maybe, maybe not. In such situations, I don't like laying a lot of points... Sure, Cats probably win this by 30, but it could very well be by 2 if the Doggies are frenetic on the ball for 4Q. Under is tempting at first blush.
Thanks buddy, appreciate it.
That Dees line does look to be the play of the round. Depleted Suns team, off a nice win facing a superior team with pent-up rage over how the good play isn't translating to Ws. Feel like they're going to lay a 50 burger on them. Will definitely play this and/or an earlier line like 1Q if data supports.
Not too keen on the Cats line; I'd play the Doggies at the current line if anything. They get Stringer back along with another key dude. I guess there is just a lot of whackiness on both sides: how will the Dogs respond (I think they will very well, but could go opposite way), does one great Cat and Tomohawk performance start a trend? Maybe, maybe not. In such situations, I don't like laying a lot of points... Sure, Cats probably win this by 30, but it could very well be by 2 if the Doggies are frenetic on the ball for 4Q. Under is tempting at first blush.
GWS and Adelaide (if Mumford healthy for Giants) look good fave lines, though caution on Crows line: it's their highest in 2 seasons.
Hawks prolly cover, but my play there will be a live one if, as I expect, they start slow. It's a big line to lay at Aurora, when there is literally no threat of losing... Against his former top lieutenant who has his own young troops playing well. 1Q or 1H Blues line will be something I look at too.
Otherwise, some of the home Dogs are raising an eyebrow with 4+ goal advantages in Brissy and Perth. Pies is a little tempting, to be honest, but I'd prefer over 2 goals.
GWS and Adelaide (if Mumford healthy for Giants) look good fave lines, though caution on Crows line: it's their highest in 2 seasons.
Hawks prolly cover, but my play there will be a live one if, as I expect, they start slow. It's a big line to lay at Aurora, when there is literally no threat of losing... Against his former top lieutenant who has his own young troops playing well. 1Q or 1H Blues line will be something I look at too.
Otherwise, some of the home Dogs are raising an eyebrow with 4+ goal advantages in Brissy and Perth. Pies is a little tempting, to be honest, but I'd prefer over 2 goals.
P.S. I'm flying in this Saturday for some live VIC footy... :)
Someone's taking me to the Saints/Roos game, but am going to Pies/Eagles game at the G. Dees game possible as well. Let me know if you want to join for one of those two.
P.S. I'm flying in this Saturday for some live VIC footy... :)
Someone's taking me to the Saints/Roos game, but am going to Pies/Eagles game at the G. Dees game possible as well. Let me know if you want to join for one of those two.
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