AFL - Playoffs Week 1

Lines feel fat to me. but haven't spent much time thinking about them. The Hawks line I guessed. The other three were each a goal and a point or two higher than I thought they would be. Not saying that means anything.

My initial impressions:

25+ points is too much to lay against WB, though the Doggies are having to travel west twice in a short period. I bet a little against them v. Freo, but I've been burned too many times playing against them with any number of injuries. For me it's Doggies or no play.

Hawks will be smarter than Cats in terms of game planning and maturity. Talent, the Cats the clear advantage. Which Cats' team will show up is the wild card for me that makes a play on this seem like a flip of a coin. I hesitate to back the Hawks also for the belief I have that they will be less concerned with winning this game than executing to a game plan knowing they get another chance. As a supporter (of both Swans and hawks), I'd rather see each lose this game IF they'll face the team again. Hawks just feel like they're hanging by a thread.

Swannies laying more than 2 goals, at ANZ, vs. a team that isn't afraid of them, or anyone. Swans combo of experience, health, depth, maturity and, most importantly, revenge from the trouncing by Giants should get this one done by 3+ goals. Will likely play a line under 3 goals.

Crows laying 6 goals at home to a spent Roos team. Crows off a loss at home feels like a trouncing in the making. Will have to look at the data from past few years, but don't think I can lay that much in a playoff match.

Looking to the Grand Final, I share what seems to be the consensus view: Swannies will be playing in it and likely win it. Hawks, Crows/Cats in that order have the best chance to beat them.

Taking the Swans, Crows, and Eagles all ML pays out around Evens. 

Same bud, pays 2x here too

GWS scares me.  Those guys play without shackles due to the fact that nobody expects them to win.  I think they are still being given the "expansion team" benefit of the doubt.  The carefree way they play is really dangerous on most weeks.

Being a match against their contrived "rivals" in Sydney, they will be even more "caution to the wind."

Just wish the Finals stared this weekend.

Really strange having a blank weekend after the season comes to a finish.

Yeah, I don't think they will repeat the bye before finals... Stupid reaction to a few teams last year resting players on the final round. No way Giants win this game. :)

Gents,

Looks to be a good round, and it kicks off in 48 hours.

Some interesting recent history in Week 1 for you... faves have gone:

2013: 1-3
2014: 3-1
2015: 0-4
2016: 3-1, if I have anything to say about it :)

WCE v. WB @ Domain -27.5 / 163.5

The Eagles’ form really has improved markedly since split-round bye, so even though they’ve re-lost Nic Nat, I feel confident in laying money with them playing at this level and in this situation. 30 point home ground advantage, and they’re a better team, good night. Love the Doggies, and they’ll play hard. But they’re just too depleted with injuries, and this is second straight game out west. Eagles pull away mid/late 3rd Q, at latest.

Play: Eagles -27.5



Geelong v. Hawthorn @ MCG -8.5 / 162.5

An uber-talented, and in-form team taking on the 3-time reigning champ and the uber-experienced leadership across coaching staff and players. Cats have played up to their competition this season, but they’ve also been throttled by Swans at home. From experience, we know the Hawks will be more prepared, and are most likely to execute their game plan more consistently and effectively. They must know that if they lose this one, they’re out; they’re not beating the Swans in Sydney now. The total feels a little low, but I won’t be playing it. In a round of favourites covering (imho), this is the dog that covers “for sure”. J I’m taking Hawks at more than a goal.

Play: Hawks +8.5 / Why is this total at 162.5???



Sydney v. GWS @ ANZ -15.5 / 171.5

Similar “most-experience” v. “most-talent” matchup. The Swans are executing pretty flawlessly, and have been doing so since almost losing to Blues at home a number of rounds ago. These two teams know each other well, but they don’t seem to have close games. Giants are still feeling their way in terms of consistency and 4 quarters of focus in any given game, and I think they fall away by 4-5 goals in this one. I think the margin is not that close since the Swans will be out for some payback. And say this out loud: Swans have 5 on the All Australian Team, 4 starters, and the Rising Star winner by 49 of 50 votes. Giants 1 (honest question)?

Play: Swans -15.5



Adelaide v. NM @ The Oval -32.5 / 176.5

~20 pt home ground advantage against an old and tired team playing away. And Crows smarting off a loss that meant losing their top-4 spot and the double-chance. I’ll lay the 6 goals.

Play: Crows -32.5



Final Play of the round: Week 1 ML Parlay Eagles/Swans/Crows paying 2.01

Good luck!! Erich

Agreed Young, I did eventually see that...

Chump from Manila, when you visiting your mom here next? You know you're going to have to come through me to see her when you come for a visit

Adding: Hawks WIN

Hawks/Cats Over 153.5

Ahhhh, Manila Vanilla, you know me and your mom are going all Chocolate tonight to celebrate, don't you?? #BareAs

What a shock finish to an amazing match, wow. That was secon jaw-dropper of a miss for Hawks in the game... Makes me wonder...

Anyway, adding some plays. Quite windy here, and D will be tough.

Swans 1Q -2.5
Swans 1H -5.5
Total Under 170.5

Good luck!

And no way no how Giants pull out an upset here today... :D

C'mon, homie.

No need for that.

Erich is a top bloke on this site and has been posting strong all season.  I'd love to see your picks and plays for AFL some time since you've been on here sometime, or NRL for that matter, but never seem to find any.

No piss-taking please with us AFL/NRL/Union guys here.  Leave that sh!t to the NBA forum.

Wind currently 24 mph at ANZ.

Yeah man, one of the reasons I take the Under, the other being that the Swans will make this a very contested game... Did you see the Cats/Hawks match?! Holy hell what a game!!

And don't worry about the the little trolls on here, give me a laugh more than anything else... Give me a reason to gutter trash talk too, which, I gotta say, feels good on occasion... :D

That was a great match!

O/U on Swans game has dropped to 170.5.  Which usually means a play on the Under.  First two Finals games have been lower scoring than expected.

However, I don't expect the Swans to have the clampdown on the midfield as they usually do tonight which will lead to a few extra scoring shots.  I am leaning the Over 170.5 because of it.  The previous match between these two got into the 160's even after a piss poor low-scoring 1st Quarter.  I don;t see that happening tonight.

Add in the extra 20 metres or so of ANZ over the SCG and I reckon we have enough extra points there to pull at least 171 tonight.

As it be, I am not betting it.  I always go unusual during the Finals time.  Check my thread to see what ridiculousness I am up to.

Join me on my Live Swans thread, mate!

Ouchee, Swannies with the dagger to the heart... Seacrest out on you, no mas.

Adding Crows 1H -16.5.

Yes, a very disappointing match to watch.  To say the least...