No matter how many winners I supply this forum (Over 70%) the last month or so. There are still people who can never be satisfied. So, if you want me to continue to keep posting plays please let me know. I'm NOT getting paid for posting my wagers, yet some continue to nitpick and complain. Which is very annoying.
2
No matter how many winners I supply this forum (Over 70%) the last month or so. There are still people who can never be satisfied. So, if you want me to continue to keep posting plays please let me know. I'm NOT getting paid for posting my wagers, yet some continue to nitpick and complain. Which is very annoying.
@Quaffer Look it up yourself & stop relying on me to do all the work.
Why would he look it up if you posted it?
Either you have the numbers, the percentage or where you got the info. Either that or its maybe something you noticed but arent necessarily sure. Why are you always so angry when people ask? You post some good stuff but this is called gaining knowledge. And since its laying almost 2-1 those numbers matter. Win or lose you are not responsible for anyones money but dont get mad if people want to understand the bet.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:
@Quaffer Look it up yourself & stop relying on me to do all the work.
Why would he look it up if you posted it?
Either you have the numbers, the percentage or where you got the info. Either that or its maybe something you noticed but arent necessarily sure. Why are you always so angry when people ask? You post some good stuff but this is called gaining knowledge. And since its laying almost 2-1 those numbers matter. Win or lose you are not responsible for anyones money but dont get mad if people want to understand the bet.
I do not post a trend because it's just my opinion. I post it because it is a fact that I have either researched because of a SDQL query or some other method. Anyone can do the same and check to see if my work is accurate or not. It's really that simple. I get annoyed because it seems to me that some people are always trying to find a flaw, where if they bothered to check for themselves, they would find there is none. Why is it that only in the hockey forum do I seem to get the trolls responding? Hardly ever in the NBA forum?? But, I have good news for you. From now on B Lugosi (the biggest troll in this forum) can supply you with winning picks. He's a much better handicapper than myself. Let's leave it at that.
0
@smellybunty
I do not post a trend because it's just my opinion. I post it because it is a fact that I have either researched because of a SDQL query or some other method. Anyone can do the same and check to see if my work is accurate or not. It's really that simple. I get annoyed because it seems to me that some people are always trying to find a flaw, where if they bothered to check for themselves, they would find there is none. Why is it that only in the hockey forum do I seem to get the trolls responding? Hardly ever in the NBA forum?? But, I have good news for you. From now on B Lugosi (the biggest troll in this forum) can supply you with winning picks. He's a much better handicapper than myself. Let's leave it at that.
Why would people be angry at winning money? That's crazy. Jealousy never paid any bills that I'm aware of. And as I mentioned this only seems to happen in the hockey forum. In other forums the trolls are at a minimum with many more views. Hard to understand. But no worries = I'm sure B Lugosi will post many hockey winners for this forum to profit from.
0
@BristolNole
Why would people be angry at winning money? That's crazy. Jealousy never paid any bills that I'm aware of. And as I mentioned this only seems to happen in the hockey forum. In other forums the trolls are at a minimum with many more views. Hard to understand. But no worries = I'm sure B Lugosi will post many hockey winners for this forum to profit from.
youre a great capper, how old are you? just curious? The world is nothing but ungrateful assholes and losers, when you keep saying im gonna take my ball and go home it will just get worse. Give your balls and tug and keep kicking ass like you always do. you gonna let bella get in your head? He aint shit. lets go kid!!!
0
youre a great capper, how old are you? just curious? The world is nothing but ungrateful assholes and losers, when you keep saying im gonna take my ball and go home it will just get worse. Give your balls and tug and keep kicking ass like you always do. you gonna let bella get in your head? He aint shit. lets go kid!!!
go track redlads plays i guarantee you his record aint what he claims...last time he said he was on 19-3 run i looked back he had 3 losses in his last 6 picks. anyways he last his all in play on spurs game 3 so not sure how he has money left.
0
go track redlads plays i guarantee you his record aint what he claims...last time he said he was on 19-3 run i looked back he had 3 losses in his last 6 picks. anyways he last his all in play on spurs game 3 so not sure how he has money left.
Posted by chitownjake007 youre a great capper, how old are you? just curious? The world is nothing but ungrateful assholes and losers, when you keep saying im gonna take my ball and go home it will just get worse. Give your balls a tug and keep kicking ass like you always do. you gonna let bella get in your head? He aint shit. lets go kid!!!.........
goldfinger 1964
0
Posted by chitownjake007 youre a great capper, how old are you? just curious? The world is nothing but ungrateful assholes and losers, when you keep saying im gonna take my ball and go home it will just get worse. Give your balls a tug and keep kicking ass like you always do. you gonna let bella get in your head? He aint shit. lets go kid!!!.........
1) Just because someone asks about a play or exactly where you get the information for the play does not make them a ‘troll’.
2) NHL playoff games are notorious for having more conservative play, overtime, and empty-net goal variance.
3) Situational betting systems that use things like this are well known and factored in by the oddsmakers.
4) For it to be a true ‘value’ play means you should have a decided edge over the current line.
5) With -190 the implied probability is ~65.5%. So, you need to have an edge of around 4% for a decent value play or around 5% for a strong value play.
6) So, you would need the ‘true’ fair line to be around -228 for decent value and -239 for strong value. I do not see where that line would ever have been posted that high to realize what is known as ‘value’.
7) It can be just considered a ‘play’ if there is no true ‘edge’ or ‘value’.
8) It can be considered a probability play. Where you are playing it not for value but to ‘play the odds’ that it is likely to win.
9) But to realize this likelihood over time you would really need to know the true stats on this particular playoff scenario.
10) So, it is crucial to know the exact numbers in this situation if you are going to play a situational play.
11) Then you would have to factor in these particular teams and their form to see if -190 is a ‘value’ play on this probability. Maybe the oddsmaker had it off on this one.
12) So, once you know those exact numbers you can decide if this play is potentially profitable longterm.
13) Just because a play wins one time, in isolation, does not make it a ‘value’ play or even a ‘probability’ play. It can just be a particular play.
14) You have to ask would this play truly be a winner 66 out of 100 times to be profitable. Or would it be a winner 70 out of 100 times to be a very strong play.
1
1) Just because someone asks about a play or exactly where you get the information for the play does not make them a ‘troll’.
2) NHL playoff games are notorious for having more conservative play, overtime, and empty-net goal variance.
3) Situational betting systems that use things like this are well known and factored in by the oddsmakers.
4) For it to be a true ‘value’ play means you should have a decided edge over the current line.
5) With -190 the implied probability is ~65.5%. So, you need to have an edge of around 4% for a decent value play or around 5% for a strong value play.
6) So, you would need the ‘true’ fair line to be around -228 for decent value and -239 for strong value. I do not see where that line would ever have been posted that high to realize what is known as ‘value’.
7) It can be just considered a ‘play’ if there is no true ‘edge’ or ‘value’.
8) It can be considered a probability play. Where you are playing it not for value but to ‘play the odds’ that it is likely to win.
9) But to realize this likelihood over time you would really need to know the true stats on this particular playoff scenario.
10) So, it is crucial to know the exact numbers in this situation if you are going to play a situational play.
11) Then you would have to factor in these particular teams and their form to see if -190 is a ‘value’ play on this probability. Maybe the oddsmaker had it off on this one.
12) So, once you know those exact numbers you can decide if this play is potentially profitable longterm.
13) Just because a play wins one time, in isolation, does not make it a ‘value’ play or even a ‘probability’ play. It can just be a particular play.
14) You have to ask would this play truly be a winner 66 out of 100 times to be profitable. Or would it be a winner 70 out of 100 times to be a very strong play.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
thats funny 
Hot Forum Topics
