Value Play According To Prior Playoff History.

Golden Knights + 1.5 Goals –190

Over the last 20 years NHL playoff favorites have struggled to cover 1.5 goals after losing 2 or more prior games in the series.

BOL!

I LIKE IT, GL tonite 

@Redlad

 “Struggled”  seems nebulous.  Actually have any real numbers? 

@Quaffer

Look it up yourself & stop relying on me to do all the work. 

Hard to look up your opinion.  

Apparently, you cannot site your source

@the1toturn2

Are you not aware that covers provides back results for NHL teams??????? My goodness.

No matter how many winners I supply this forum (Over 70%) the last month or so. There are still people who can never be satisfied. So, if you want me to continue to keep posting plays please let me know. I'm NOT getting paid for posting my wagers, yet some continue to nitpick and complain. Which is very annoying.

Why would he look it up if you posted it? 

Either you have the numbers, the percentage or where you got the info. Either that or its maybe something you noticed but arent necessarily sure. Why are you always so angry when people ask? You post some good stuff but this is called gaining knowledge. And since its laying almost 2-1 those numbers matter. Win or lose you are not responsible for anyones money but dont get mad if people want to understand the bet.

@smellybunty

I do not post a trend because it's just my opinion. I post it because it is a fact that I have either researched because of a SDQL query or some other method. Anyone can do the same and check to see if my work is accurate or not. It's really that simple. I get annoyed because it seems to me that some people are always trying to find a flaw, where if they bothered to check for themselves, they would find there is none. Why is it that only in the hockey forum do I seem to get the trolls responding? Hardly ever in the NBA forum?? But, I have good news for you. From now on B Lugosi (the biggest troll in this forum) can supply you with winning picks. He's a much better handicapper than myself. Let's leave it at that.

@Redlad

 You just have to ignore the posts that you aren't interested in..... Success brings it on.

If you weren't doing well, no one would be questioning or even posting anything.

Just carry on 

@BristolNole

Why would people be angry at winning money? That's crazy. Jealousy never paid any bills that I'm aware of. And as I mentioned this only seems to happen in the hockey forum. In other forums the trolls are at a minimum with many more views. Hard to understand. But no worries = I'm sure B Lugosi will post many hockey winners for this forum to profit from.

@Redlad

 
 Stop whining…

@the1toturn2

 Cite is the correct word in this context.

youre a great capper, how old are you? just curious? The world is nothing but ungrateful assholes and losers, when you keep saying im gonna take my ball and go home it will just get worse. Give your balls and tug and keep kicking ass like you always do. you gonna let bella get in your head? He aint shit. lets go kid!!!

go track redlads plays i guarantee you his record aint what he claims...last time he said he was on  19-3 run i looked back he had 3 losses in his last 6 picks.  anyways he last his all in play on spurs game 3 so not sure how he has money left. 

@wiggins

 meant cavs game 3 

thats funny 

 Posted by chitownjake007   youre a great capper, how old are you? just curious? The world is nothing but ungrateful assholes and losers, when you keep saying im gonna take my ball and go home it will just get worse. Give your balls a tug and keep kicking ass like you always do. you gonna let bella get in your head? He aint shit. lets go kid!!!.........  

@Redlad                  

1)  Just because someone asks about a play or exactly where you get the information for the play does not make them a ‘troll’.

2) NHL playoff games are notorious for having more conservative play, overtime, and empty-net goal variance.  

3) Situational betting systems that use things like this are well known and factored in by the oddsmakers.

4) For it to be a true ‘value’ play means you should have a decided edge over the current line.

5) With -190 the implied probability is ~65.5%.  So, you need to have an edge of around 4% for a decent value play or around 5% for a strong value play.  

6) So, you would need the ‘true’ fair line to be around -228 for decent value and -239 for strong value.  I do not see where that line would ever have been posted that high to realize what is known as ‘value’.

7) It can be just considered a ‘play’ if there is no true ‘edge’ or ‘value’.  

8) It can be considered a probability play.  Where you are playing it not for value but to ‘play the odds’ that it is likely to win.

9) But to realize this likelihood over time you would really need to know the true stats on this particular playoff scenario.  

10) So, it is crucial to know the exact numbers in this situation if you are going to play a situational play.

11) Then you would have to factor in these particular teams and their form to see if -190 is a ‘value’ play on this probability.  Maybe the oddsmaker had it off on this one.

12) So, once you know those exact numbers you can decide if this play is potentially profitable longterm. 

13) Just because a play wins one time, in isolation, does not make it a ‘value’ play or even a ‘probability’ play.  It can just be a particular play.

14) You have to ask would this play truly be a winner 66 out of 100 times to be profitable.  Or would it be a winner 70 out of 100 times to be a very strong play.

But I would just keep posting and contributing to the forum and not worry about what other folks have to say.  

If they ask sincere questions be ready to attempt to answer them.  

I have found that the NHL forum is the second best forum on here.  

So, it is great to have as many folks as possible engaging here.

Excellent write up re the values in -190’s..