Posted:
#1
St. Louis at Nashville
Spot
Both teams are on 4 game winning streaks. St. Louis is coming off a 5 game home stand, while Nashville is wrapping a up a 4 game home stand tonight.
This will be the third time this year that St. Louis plays a road game after a home stand (two or more games). They lost both previous road games in this spot by the same score (3-2). I believe they will also come out flat tonight even though it is a very important division game. It will take them awhile to get up to snuff after playing at home for two weeks.
The Preds are coming off a unlikely late rally that beat the Wings. Do they have a letdown or was that huge win just more fuel for their current upswing?
Stats and Trends
Nashville has historically had their way with the Blues in Music City (15 wins out of the last 21 games), but STL has captured the last two games in Nashville.
J. Halak gets the start tonight for STL and is a terrible 1-7 on the road this year with a 2.84 GAA and a .894 save percentage. For whatever reason, when Halak starts in goal on the road, the Blues really struggle to get goals for him. The Blues have scored only 13 goals in his 8 road starts and have yet to score at least 3 goals in any of those games.
Speaking of 3 goals: St. Louis is 13-0 when scoring 3 goals or more in a game, while they are 5-12 when scoring fewer than 3 goals in a game.
Surprisingly Nashville is only 7-8 this year at home while the Blues are only 6-8 on the road. However, STL has knocked off some good teams on the road this year (San Jose, Philly, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh).
St. Louis is 12-5 under Hitchcock (60th birthday today), but have done most of their damage at home (9-3). This will be only their 6th game on the road with Hitch behind the bench. They are 3-2 in the 5 road games.
Price
With the game being basically a pick'em, it is very enticing to take the Preds in this matchup. I wouldn't want to wager on the Blues (on the road) quite yet when they have a - in front of their price until they prove they can score some goals and get above .500 away from home.
Miscellaneous Thoughts
Nashville is healthy, while the Blues are still missing a top 6 forward in McDonald. 3rd line center Jason Arnott is also questionable because of the flu. STL has seen the flu bug go thru many of their players, but they have plodded along will little ill effect.
The Blues are led by the Backes line that plays the whole 200 feet of the rink with passion and hockey sense. Steen, Backes, and Oshie are not the most talented line in the NHL, but they are relentless in all 3 zones, which makes them a coaches dream. STL must get at least one goal from their 2nd or 3rd line (or blue liners) to win this game.
P. Rinne has recently turned his game around and has a great career save % vs the Blues. I think the Blues anemic road offense is the cure to the Preds loose play in the last two games. Even though they won those two games they gave up a shitload of shots, but Rinne was up to the task.
I envision this game to be similar to both of the Blues road games earlier this year vs Minny. STL lost both of those tight checking (Saturday night) games by one goal. However, I also have a feeling the Blues are ripe for a real poor showing and would not be surprised to see them go down in a 3-0 or 4-1 type game.
Since I live in St. Louis, I always get about a 10 cent different line from my local bookie on Blues games. Most of his 12-15 NHL regulars bet on the local team, so he'll shade the line by at least 10 cents on most occasions. This will be one of the times I'll take him up on the offer. He normally hopes I win, because that means he wins as well. 
Posted YTD: 5-9 -$335
Nashville ML Even (Risk $100 to win $100)
You might want to fade this pick since my few posted plays have been lousy.
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