NHL Monday

1-0 Saturday +4.05 units

YTD 56-38 +30.12 units

BUF ML (-115) 2.3 units to win 2.  The Sabres are playing better hockey both offensively and defensively than the Panthers currently.  Over the last 10 games the Sabres are averaging 3.6 goals per game and allowing 2.2.  The Panthers are the opposite, scoring 2.5 goals per game and allowing 3.6.  Riding the Sabres bandwagon for at least one more time. 

SEA ML (+122) 2 units to win 2.44.  The Kraken are 8-1-2 over their last 11 games.  The Rangers have lost 6 of their last 7.  Not even sure how the Rangers are favored in this one.  They're desperate for a win but it's hard for me to factor desperation in to handicapping.

BOL on your plays today 

GL ff, Quick confirmed, lean both, but not betting either game

Ouch, GL Bud, I am opposite of both 

Oh well   Your having a Good year, dont doubt yourself......

Damn!  You are one guy I don't want to be on the other side of right now.  My picks do feel "too easy"...the plus money on the hot Kraken seems like bait and the cheap price on the hot Sabres also seems like bait and I may have taken it.

Any insight on your picks?  Are you basing it off of these fishy lines?

BOL today 

Well now my spidey sense is tingling.  Every time I put a bet in during the morning it tends to lose.  Florida has a history of owning the Sabres and the Rangers will be 100% focused after giving up 10 goals the other day.

Cashing out of both picks.  Will look at other games.  Leaning Canes now that they are almost 100% healthy and are 7-2 against Detroit...

@FirefIy

 Alot of my Handicapping is "situational" and "motivation" and travel, of course injuries and who is goal tending.  I do look at recent trends and histories against one another.  I have been hot but regression is most likely coming so I am trying to do the same thing but aware of the danger that I could go into a slump to even things out so unless you see some clear advantage you beleive it, stick with your plays and gut. 

@FirefIy

 Oh man, I hope I dont jinx you/us now.......

No worries!  I had a feeling when I placed the bets that I was missing something.  Its easy to cash out when you have second thoughts.  If they hit, I can be glas i was seeing things clearly.  If they miss, I'll be glad I cashed out!  The "situational" aspect of capping is my weakness. 

For example.  Tampa Bay at Philadelphia.  TB is the far better team but the Flyers will probably give 120% effort tonight after being embarrassed on their home ice 2 days ago.  Conversely, TB might take their foot off the gas a little, looking ahead in their schedule.  Is the play the situational Flyers or the statistically better Bolts?  This is why capping is hard.

@FirefIy

 Flyers are a good situational play tonight IMO, I am posting a few more, going for the Gusto tonight 

Hell I think I just talked myself into it.  

PHI ML (+125) 2 units to win 2.5.  I was on TB the other day but this situation is different.  Flyers on a final game of a homestand, just got embarrassed by this same Bolts team 2 days ago and the goalie situation is totally different.  The goalies are Vladar and Johansson, and Vladar has the edge here.  Revenge angle, already lost 2 in a row on home ice make it a decent shot at plus money.

I cashed out of BUF and SEA so this is my only play.  Also lean Canes.  BOL 

Good luck tonight I’m on buf so you should avoid them but I’m cold so I would say take sea to fade me.