Posted:
#1
I look at line movement quite a bit. Also look at lines where some i think is strange etc. Of course most lines seem to be around right. But I'm sure many of you know what I mean when i say certain line looks very strange.
Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.
From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.
Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.
From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.
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